Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front is expected to move south across the region
tonight. Behind the front, Tuesday should be relatively cloudy and
not as warm. Typical summerlike conditions will return for Wednesday
through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday: This update includes the discussion
for the 18Z TAFs along with the afternoon package update.

Mid-level cloud cover was more expansive through the morning hours
than previously anticipated across the western Carolinas and
northeast GA, making the temperature forecast a tricky one today.
With less cloud cover along the I-77 corridor, Charlotte ended up
being the warmest of the official climate sites today (currently 91
degrees), with temperatures elsewhere remaining in the upper 70s to
low to mid 80s. Expect this to hold true as cloud cover continues to
expand eastward. Though shower activity was previously confined to
the higher elevations along the TN border this morning, shower and
thunderstorm development has blossomed elsewhere within the last
hour, though will note activity is more widespread west, east and
south of the FA attm. With portions of a backdoor cold/cool front
continuing to drop into NC from the northeast along with a low level
boundary which has developed along portions of the NW Piedmont,
areas along and just east of the I-77 corridor as well as areas
across portions of northeast GA may be the areas that see the most
convective activity today, though isolated showers and thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out across the foothills into the Upstate. Though
instability is marginal, would not entirely rule out a severe
thunderstorm today as the area remains within SPC's Day 1 Marginal
Risk.

Once the front pushes through the FA tonight, instability will
become obsolete and sfc high pressure off to the northeast will
build in overnight and into Tuesday, allowing for a wedge front to
be the main weather pattern feature through the rest of the near
term forecast period. Increasing cloud cover tonight is expected to
persist through into Tuesday as the feature settles in, allowing for
overnight temperatures to remain above normal. Temperatures on
Tuesday will be cooler than today, anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees
cooler, with overall light northeast winds prevailing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday: Thanks to the progressive pattern,
weak sfc ridging nosed swwd into the cwfa will give to a broader
w to sw flow on Wednesday, with developing lee troughing.
Weakly cyclonic flow aloft will aid in diurnal deep convective
development, with coverage possibly becoming numerous in the
mountains. Maximum temperatures should bounce back to around
climo. The pattern atop the SE CONUS is progged to change little
through Thursday, featuring a weak westerly flow aloft and a
non-descript sfc pattern. Outside of making an upward
adjustment to inherited max temps, a pretty typical mid-June day
is expected featuring diurnally enhanced tstms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday: Mid level ridging will build across
the area during the middle of the week but westerly flow will
remain not far to the north. The ridging will strengthen over
the middle of the country by next weekend while a low develops
just off the mid- Atlantic region.

Fairly typical early summer conditions are expected as a result of
this pattern. Expect more coverage of diurnally enhanced showers and
thunderstorms for the middle of the week with the coverage being
less Friday through the weekend as the ridge asserts its influence.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR prevails across the area this
afternoon with a backdoor cool front just to our northeast, and a
boundary across the NW Piedmont, which has allowed for winds from
KGSP/KGMU to KCLT to become more northerly over the past few hours,
while NW winds prevail elsewhere. Showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to develop across portions of the FA this afternoon,
mainly just east of the I-77 corridor, as well as along the NC/TN
border and across northeast GA. Though more cloud cover was in place
across the area this morning than previously anticipated, expect
isolated to scattered activity to grow and persist through the
evening hours. Thus, have kept VCSH/VCTS at all TAF sites this
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, expect VFR cigs to gradually
deteriorate to MVFR/IFR overnight as sfc wedge builds in across the
area with the parent sfc high pressure to the northeast. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday as well, but
anticipate coverage to be less than today. Winds will become
northeasterly overnight with this feature (except for KAVL -
southeast) and prevail through the end of the valid TAF period, 3 to
8 kts.

Outlook:  Periods of showers and thunderstorms will be possible each
day, primarily in the afternoon, along with some fog and reduced
ceilings, primarily in the mountains.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  97%     High  82%     High  88%
KGSP       High 100%     High  95%     High  84%     High  89%
KAVL       High 100%     High  84%     Med   79%     High  88%
KHKY       High 100%     Med   78%     High  83%     High  90%
KGMU       High 100%     High  92%     High  85%     High  89%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121900-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
251 PM EDT Mon Jun 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop into this evening.
A few of the storms may become severe with damaging wind gusts.
Otherwise...frequent cloud-to-ground lightning and heavy downpours
will be the main threats. Storms may continue for several hours after
dark.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
735 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCZ501-502-120000-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
735 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

At 735 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Lenoir, or 5 miles northwest of Gamewell. This storm
was nearly stationary.

Locations to be impacted include...
Collettsville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and half inch hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3593 8160 3585 8165 3594 8177 3597 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 2335Z 049DEG 4KT 3592 8167

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
738 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0703 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W CHINA GROVE         35.57N 80.62W
06/11/2018                   ROWAN              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN ON FLAT ROCK ROAD. TIME OBTAINED FROM RADAR
            DATA.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
739 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCZ071-SCZ009-120015-
Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
739 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MECKLENBURG
AND EAST CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 738 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated the leading edge of a cluster
of thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of
Uptown Charlotte to 11 miles northeast of Rock Hill, and moving south
at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Southwest Charlotte, Fort Mill, Pineville, Charlotte Douglas Airport,
Carowinds, Steele Creek, Marvin, The Arboretum and South Charlotte.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, half inch hail and torrential rainfall rates
up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3502 8081 3500 8084 3508 8091 3503 8090
      3501 8091 3499 8089 3497 8088 3496 8087
      3492 8086 3491 8087 3507 8102 3526 8096
      3507 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 358DEG 12KT 3519 8096 3503 8086

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
741 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

NCZ056-120015-
Catawba NC-
741 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN CATAWBA COUNTY
UNTIL 815 PM EDT...

At 740 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hickory, moving southwest at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Hickory, Newton, Mountain View, Conover, Propst Crossroads and
Startown.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

LAT...LON 3575 8133 3571 8123 3557 8128 3563 8146
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 025DEG 10KT 3571 8129

LANE

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