River Flood Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
213 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A slowly moving low pressure system exits our region in mid week
and gives our region brief drying.  Another moist area of low
pressure crosses the region Thursday through early Friday. High
pressure builds across our area from this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM: The last band of showers anticipated to impact the
piedmont is lifting north of Charlotte early this morning. Any
lingering hydro issues should be along the Rocky River area and
along the Catawba River chain where stages and pool levels will only
slow fall through the day.

Otherwise, water vapor imagery shows the closed upper low crossing
the central and southern Appalachians this morning. Northwest winds
will gradually pick up behind the departing surface low center now
analyzed over the central NC piedmont. Some shower coverage may
persist along the I-40 corridor in the moist northerly flow behind
the surface low today, but rates will be much less than previously.
Anticipate that moist northwest flow may also keep upslope showers
going along the TN line through the day. Shallow ridging will also
develop over the region today as heights fall strongly across the
southern plains. This upstream system will deepen over the MS River
Valley tonight. Persistent near-surface moisture will permit some
fog and low clouds to form both this morning and again tonight
around the region. Max temps will be a touch below climo today, with
mins about a category above climo tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday: the short term fcst picks up at 00z on
Thursday with a brief flattening of the upper pattern before another
upper trof digs down across Southern Arkansas. The trof axis is
expected to lift up and over the CWFA late Thurs into early Fri as
another trof dives down the backside of the broader upper trof.
This second trof axis is not expected to reach the fcst area until
early Sat, which is just beyond the short term period. At the sfc,
the large low that has been impacting our region will finally lift
northward and over New England. In the low's wake, weak high pressure
will briefly move over the area from the northwest. The high will be
short-lived as another low develops to our west and approaches the
fcst area Thurs afternoon. The operational models are now in much
better agreement with the timing and placement of this low. It is
expected to move over the CWFA late Thurs/early Fri and lift north
of the area late Friday. As for the sensible fcst, PoPs were increased
for the later half of Thurs as the deeper moisture associated with
the low overspreads the CWFA. They remain high thru early Fri morning
and then taper off during the rest of the day. Some sfc-based instability
is present Thurs afternoon/evening, especially over our southern and
eastern zones, so isolated to scattered thunder is included over those
areas. High temps will be about a category below normal for Thurs and
near normal for Fri. Lows are expected to remain a few degrees above
climatology both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday: The extended forecast starts at 00z Saturday
with yet another potent shortwave trough rounding the base of the
mean longwave trough over the Southeast states. The medium range
guidance is still not in good agreement on the details of this wave.
The 12z EC still is the further south and least phased of the
deterministic models. It takes the wave all way to the FL Panhandle.
This results in a relatively dry soln. The 12z GFS still on the
wetter side of guidance, keeping showery wx for the area on Saturday
with the shortwave tracking right thru the Carolinas. For now, the
WPC preference is toward the EC soln, and results in only SLGT CHC
PoPs for Saturday. Temps will be near normal.

From Sunday onward, conditions look dry with temps warming above
normal for the start of next week. The eastern trough should finally
start to shift east and an upper ridge will build in from the west.
By next Tuesday, the models are in decent agreement on a fairly
amplified western trough and eastern ridge pattern across the
country. Sfc high pressure will dominate our weather for Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

At KCLT and Elsewhere: Showers should impact mainly KHKY this
morning, with the lifting band generally north of KCLT. Developing
IFR to LIFR ceilings will be the main concern given the abundant
near-surface moisture. The conditions may be quite variable however,
with mixing across KHKY in showers, and a light downsloping NW flow
at times farther to the south. Anticipate recovery to VFR throughout
from 13Z to 15Z today. Winds should remain generally N of W and be
become gusty at times at KAVL.

Outlook: Moisture will return quickly to the region on Thursday
ahead of a vigorous southern tier low pressure system. Rain showers
and associated restrictions are likely into Thursday night. A drier
cold front will approach from the northwest early in the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       Med   73%     High  96%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   74%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  85%     High  87%     High  99%     High  80%
KHKY       Low   53%     Med   74%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
422 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-252030-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-
Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-
Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-
Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
422 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Moderate rainfall will continue at times over the area this evening.
Isolated flooding may develop in low-lying and flood prone areas.
In addition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop and
produce occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of hail,
damaging winds, and flooding to our office.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-252030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
422 PM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Moderate rainfall will continue at times over the area tonight.
Isolated flooding may develop in low-lying and flood prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of flooding to
our office.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0843 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 ESE HARRISBURG        35.31N 80.62W
04/24/2018                   CABARRUS           NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            STALLINGS ROAD AND PHARR MILL ROAD FLOODED AROUND BACK
            CREEK AND ROCKY RIVER.

&&

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1020 PM EDT TUE APR 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0538 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW HARRISBURG         35.34N 80.69W
04/24/2018                   CABARRUS           NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 TREES DOWNED AND POWERLINES DOWN BY STORM WIND ON
            HUDSPETH ROAD WHICH IS JUST OUT FROM CHARLOTTE MOTOR
            SPEEDWAY. AT LEAST ONE OF THE TREES DESCRIBED AS 3 FEET
            IN DIAMETER.

&&

OUTLAW