River Flood Warning 25, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will lift northeast from the Gulf bringing
widespread rain to our area through Tuesday. Cold high pressure will
build back over the area from the north while another wet frontal
system approaches for Wednesday and Thursday, followed by dry
weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 PM: Seeing a back edge of the steadier precip move into
the wrn mountains at dusk, with a large swath of light/moderate
steady rain streaming northeastward east of the Blue Ridge. Am
tempted to pull back on the precip prob along the TN border, but
upstream development over AL suggests that light precip will move
back into that area during the middle part of the evening. Duration
of moderate rain was beginning to fill up poor drainage areas, so
statements and advisories will be issued as needed. Temps should
stay nearly steady.

Otherwise, guidance in good agreement on categorical PoPs continuing
thru the evening hours, as deep-layer moisture and forcing persist.
Strong southwesterly flow atop the wedge will advect increased
theta-e and could be enough for some elevated CAPE this evening. The
CAMs all show hints of precip becoming more convective-looking in
nature, and isolated rain rates may approach flash flood guidance.
With that said, the heavy rain/flood threat still looks too low
for a Flash Flood Watch, but isolated flooding cannot be ruled out.
Precip coverage and intensity should trend downward after midnight,
as isentropic lift weakens with a coast low developing and tracking
along the Mid-Atlantic coast. There will be enough upglide,
however, for spotty light rain and drizzle, and a shallow in-situ
wedge should remain in place thru the night. Temps will be nearly
steady, and actually rise a few degrees in the high terrain above
the CAD air mass.

Tuesday, as an upper trough approaches from the west, a cold
front will push into the area, reaching the southern Appalachians
by daybreak.  The front will be roughly parallel to the flow, and
the GFS and NAM show a strong band of frontogenesis developing on
the warm side of the frontal zone. This will have enough moisture
to produce another round of stratiform rain. The CAMs are in good
agreement on generally light rain streaking across the area from
daybreak thru early aftn. The lowest levels will see CAA/downglide
which should scour out the wedge. Temps will be tricky, as the
persisting clouds/precip and CAA should keep temps well below
normal. This may be negated by the erosion of the wedge and some
downslope warming. With all that said, I did stay on the cooler
side of the guidance, highs generally in the lower to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 pm Monday: An upper low spinning across Texas as the start
of the period will wobble into the TN Valley Thu/early Friday, with
confluent upper flow expected along the East Coast through much of
the period. Cold anticyclone building into the northeast and
Mid-Atlantic in the wake of a potent northern stream short wave
trough will spill down the Eastern Seaboard throughout Wed/Wed
night, which will evolve into strong hybrid cold air damming by
early Thursday, as the next round of moderate-to-heavy rain
associated with strong isentropic and upslope ascent overspreads the
region. The primary concern for this period remains the potential
for at least a transient period of freezing rain the
climatologically favored areas of the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment,
where low level cold advection owing to the classical nature of the
CAD as well as upslope flow should provide at least an adequate
mechanism for maintenance of cold air. Indeed, there is a strong
consensus among statistical and raw model guidance that surface temps
will be at or below freezing across much of the northern mtn zones
for a good six hours from around 09-15Z Thursday, and this will be
during a time in which precip rates should be relatively high. As
such, the ice accum forecast has been nudged to to .1-.2 inch from
roughly Montreat N/NE to Newland/Banner Elk. This is probably still
a bit on the conservative side, as guidance warms temps to above
freezing along the escarpment by late Thursday morning, and this may
be too soon considering the forecast strength of the CAD.

Otherwise, another day, another cold rain for the rest of the CWA
Thursday, with max temps only forecast in the upper 30s-mid 40s
across much of the CWA (even temps that "warm" are contingent upon
the rain tapering off as quickly as forecast Thu afternoon).
Additional qpf of 1.5-2" forecast Wed afternoon through Thu morning
may instigate some localized hydro issued depending upon how
antecedent conditions evolve over the next 24-48 hours.

We may see a brief period of mountain flurries or light snow showers
Thu night as snow levels fall quickly in the wake of a cold front,
but the combination of forecast northwest flow/upslope magnitude and
moisture depth do not appear adequate to produce accumulating snow
showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 205 PM EST Monday: The previous deep low pressure that crossed
Tennessee late Thursday will be rapidly absorbed in the fast moving
west to east 500mb flow over PA early Friday.  Medium range models
are in reasonably good agreement with dry and cool high pressure
starting the weekend as our controlling weather feature. A fast
moving cold front originating from northwest Canada will arrive
early Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF have a thin prefrontal band of
moisture which dissipates over the central Appalachians generally
from the Bristol area northward. The GFS keeps us dry through Monday
night. The old version of the EC had a 500mb shortwave crossing
Tennessee Sunday night with wintry precip falling over the mountains
and adjacent foothills into Monday morning. The new EC is much more
like the GFS and only has a hint of precip for the mountains midday
Monday.  Temperatures below normal through the period with the
warmer day on Saturday with Max Temps only about 3 degrees below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A large swath of moderate to heavy rain
was slowly translating east while more intense elements were
moving quickly northeast. Within this band, widespread IFR/LIFR
conditions persist. Some MVFR holes were noted, but these fill
in and move past quickly and will not be chased. Instead, the
IFR/LIFR condition is expected to persist for the better part
of the night and into Tuesday morning, mainly due to low stratus
ceilings once the steadier precip moves eastward and tapers to more
of a light rain/drizzle late this evening. Wind should stay NE to
N. The fcst is a bit tricky on Tuesday as some guidance suggests
keeping at least an IFR restriction thru the afternoon, but other
guidance lifts the ceiling to MVFR in the afternoon with more of
a downslope flow as the wedge drains. The new fcst improves to
MVFR around midday for most locations, but that could easily be
too optimistic. Wind will come around to light N to NW at that time.

Outlook: Rain chances will diminish Tuesday night, and parts of
the area may remain dry Wednesday. However, unsettled conditions
are expected to return late Wednesday as another CAD event begins.
Prolonged flight restrictions will redevelop and last into Thursday,
but largely VFR conditions are expected at the end of the week.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High  86%     Med   78%     High  81%     Med   78%
KGSP       High  80%     Med   75%     Med   78%     High  80%
KAVL       High  81%     Med   70%     High  89%     Med   79%
KHKY       High  80%     Med   73%     High  84%     Med   74%
KGMU       Med   76%     Med   79%     Med   75%     Med   78%
KAND       High  82%     Med   79%     Med   76%     High  83%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
335 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-065-501>507-509-132045-
Avery-Alexander-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Polk Mountains-
335 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy rain will continue across the region through this evening, and
could lead to some localized flooding. Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as well, with cloud-to-ground lightning the primary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of heavy rain will move into the area Wednesday into
Thursday. With this heavy rain falling on top of already saturated
soils from rain today, the likelihood of isolated flooding concerns
will increase.

Additionally, with temperatures dropping to or below freezing across
the mountains Wednesday night, rain may change over to freezing
rain. At least light ice accumulations will be possible, mainly
along and near the eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge, especially
north of I-40. Residents of these and surrounding areas will need to
monitor forecasts as this situation evolves.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-048-051-052-056>059-062>064-
068>072-082-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-132045-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Iredell-Davie-Madison-
Swain-Haywood-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-
Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
335 PM EST Mon Nov 12 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Heavy rain will continue across the region through this evening, and
could lead to some localized flooding. Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible as well, with cloud-to-ground lightning the primary
threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of heavy rain will move into the area Wednesday into
Thursday. With this heavy rain falling on top of already saturated
soils from rain today, the likelihood of isolated flooding concerns
will increase.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
756 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

NCZ036-056-057-068>072-504-508-510-130300-
Rowan NC-Greater Rutherford NC-Gaston NC-Iredell NC-Cleveland NC-
Lincoln NC-Greater Burke NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
Eastern Polk NC-Catawba NC-
756 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO AFFECT THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...

At 753 PM EST, Doppler radar was indicating a broad area of moderate
to heavy rainfall moving northeast across the foothills and piedmont
of western North Carolina. The heaviest embedded showers were
producing rainfall at rates of one-half to three-quarters of an inch
per hour, and this rain will affect locations that have already
received 1 to 2 inches of rainfall today. Deep ponding of water will
develop in low-lying and poor drainage areas, and many area streams
and creeks will likely rise to near bankfull by late evening.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Huntersville, Kannapolis, Hickory, Salisbury, Statesville,
Shelby, Newton, Lincolnton and Forest City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches
and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads.
Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher
ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3541 8060 3540 8091 3514 8099 3520 8226
      3557 8181 3578 8133 3581 8114 3578 8111
      3582 8107 3573 8043 3572 8043
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 238DEG 35KT 3522 8183

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
802 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

SCZ010-130300-
Anderson SC-
802 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS TO IMPACT ANDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM EST...

At 759 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated an area of moderate to heavy
rain showers repeatedly crossing Anderson County from the southwest.
These showers were producing rainfall at rates in excess of one-half
inch per hour, and were affection locations that have already
received 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain today. This additional heavy rain
will cause deep ponding of water in low-lying and poor drainage
areas, and rapid rises along streams and creeks to near bankfull.

Locations to be impacted include...Anderson, Homeland Park,
Powdersville, Piedmont, Belton, Williamston, Northlake, Honea Path,
Pendleton and Iva.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as ditches
and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded roads.
Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek higher
ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3427 8275 3429 8278 3434 8279 3437 8284
      3447 8287 3449 8291 3448 8299 3467 8279
      3482 8248 3478 8245 3466 8247 3459 8242
      3456 8242 3448 8231 3421 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 0059Z 241DEG 35KT 3444 8278

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
815 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     FLOOD            3 SE TAYLORS            34.88N 82.28W
11/12/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   PUBLIC

            REPORT OF BOILING SPRINGS ROAD FLOODED DUE TO BRUSHY
            CREEK OUT OF ITS BANKS. VEHICLE DROVE THROUGH WATER UP TO
            HOOD. ROWADWAY WAS NOT BARRICADED.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FLOOD            6 N GREER               35.03N 82.22W
11/12/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE RIVER GAUGE NEAR GRAMLING ON THE MIDDLE TYGER RIVER
            ROSE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD STAGE IS 10.5 FEET AND THE
            RIVER IS CURRENTLY AT 10.72 FEET AND RISING.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
837 PM EST MON NOV 12 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0747 PM     FLOOD            2 WNW GREENVILLE        34.85N 82.41W
11/12/2018                   GREENVILLE         SC   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            THE RIVER GAUGE AT HUDSON STREET ON THE REEDY RIVER ROSE
            ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE. FLOOD STAGE IS 9.0 FEET AND THE
            RIVER IS CURRENTLY AT 9.2 FEET AND RISING.

&&

KRENTZ

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