Freeze Warning 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
359 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers across the region this morning will move east of the
area this afternoon as a cold front crosses the area. Much cooler
and drier air arrives behind the front Saturday night through Sunday
night. The dry and cool air will linger through the week before the
weather becomes more unsettled by the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Saturday: With this forecast package, a Freeze
Warning has replaced the previous Freeze Watch for areas across
western NC, with the addition of Rabun County (GA) as well. Also,
both a Wind Advisory and High Wind Warning have been issued for
portions of the NC mountains. These hazards will begin tonight.

Current temperatures are noticeably warmer across the area this
morning compared to this time yesterday, as mostly cloudy skies and
passing isolated showers (due mostly to moist upglide) ahead of an
approaching cold front have kept any sort of radiational cooling
well at bay. With a range of mid 50s to lower 60s currently,
temperatures may drop a few degrees at most before beginning their
upward climb for the day.

Through the morning hours, expect cloud cover to persist with
increasing chances for showers, from NW to SE across the FA, as the
cold front approaches the area. This front, currently stretched from
the OH Valley and southwestward per latest analysis, will continue
to propagate towards the Southeast as an upper trough digs slightly
southward and pushes eastward through the Great Lakes/OH Valley
today and tonight. Latest guidance has the cold front quickly
pushing through the FA this afternoon, allowing for NW flow to
return and the infiltration of drier air to clear skies by late
afternoon/early evening. Expect temperatures to climb into the upper
60s/low 70s this afternoon, cooler across the mountains.

With strong, low level CAA progged to infiltrate into the area later
today and remain in place through the end of the forecast period,
increasing winds and temperatures nearing or dipping below freezing
have warranted the issuance of a Wind Advisory (northern mountains
below 3500 ft, all areas across the central and southern mountains),
High Wind Warning across the northern mountains (elevations above
3500 ft), and a Freeze Warning (as mentioned above, replacing the
previous Freeze Watch). See hazardous weather products for
additional information. Elsewhere across Upstate SC and the NW
Piedmont, gusty (below advisory criteria) winds are expected
tonight, with overnight low temperatures around 40 degrees, give or
take a few degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday: Clouds diminish Sunday morning as low
level moisture pulls out of the area. The strong to very gusty winds
will linger through the morning across the mountains before tapering
off during the afternoon. Gusty winds, although below advisory
levels, will develop across the NC Foothills and Piedmont as mixing
begins Sunday morning. Lighter gusts develop across the Upstate and
NE GA. Highs will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The center of
high pressure settles over the area Sunday night leading to ideal
radiational cooling conditions. Have lowered lows a degree or so
across much of the area, but are actually slightly warmer across the
normally warmer locations around Greenville and Lakes Keowee and
Jocassee. Should be lots of frost outside of the mountains with
freezing temps possible across the NC Foothills and NW Piedmont. The
air mass moderates Monday and southerly flow develops as the center
of the high moves offshore. Highs Monday will be around 10 degrees
below normal with lows around 5 degrees above normal ending the
widespread frost/freeze threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 345 AM EDT Saturday: The guidance is now in good agreement
through the period as the ECMWF has trended toward the GFS solution.
A weak upper trough crosses the area Tuesday pushing a dry cold
front across the area. Flat ridging moves into the area through
Friday as a trough builds to our west. High pressure builds in from
the NE in a cold air damming configuration behind the departing cold
front. A Gulf Coast low pressure system develops and moves east
along the coast through the period. As mentioned above, the ECMWF
now matches the GFS in keeping the low farther south. This means a
weaker low level flow and a slower increase in moisture. Again, used
a model blend of PoP and have a dry forecast until Thursday night
when precip chances slowly increase into the low end chance range
for Friday. Highs will be near normal Tuesday then fall to around 10
degrees below normal by Friday. Lows will bounce around near or just
below normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low cigs, isolated showers, and patchy fog
will continue to allow for a mix of VFR/MVFR (possible yet low
chance of brief IFR) through the daybreak, ahead of an approaching
cold front. Guidance continues to suggest this front will quickly
push through the forecast area, allowing for decreasing VCSH from NW
to SE and clearing skies into the afternoon hours. With VFR expected
to prevail through the rest of the valid TAF period, a wind shift
behind the front and CAA infiltrating in will allow for SSW winds 5
to 10 kts to become WNW, with increasing gusts 20 kts, higher across
the mountains.

Outlook: Expect VFR as high pressure quickly builds in on Sunday,
allowing winds to subside and bringing clear conditions.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       Med   65%     Med   78%     Med   78%     High 100%
KGSP       Med   78%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  95%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       Med   67%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   62%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     GAZ010.
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505.
     Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday for
     NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     High Wind Warning from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Sunday
     for NCZ033-049-050.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...SGL
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...SGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-201930-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Watch.

Freezing temperatures are also possible again Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-201930-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-
Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and western
Piedmont of North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will bring much cooler air into the region over
the weekend. Widespread frost, or possibly even freezing temperatures,
may develop Sunday night into early Monday morning as winds become
light under clear skies.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>014-019-201930-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Chester-Greenwood-
318 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will bring much cooler air into the region over
the weekend. Areas of frost may develop Sunday night into early
Monday morning as winds become light under clear skies.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM