Freeze Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
340 AM EDT Mon Apr 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Much cooler air will overspread the region today, but temperatures
will warm once again through midweek. Another cold front will move
through the area on Thursday, bringing a chance of precipitation to
the mountains. Dry and seasonal conditions to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Monday: most of the precip has ended across the fcst
area with only some lingering light showers over the Northern NC
Piedmont and along the NC/TENN Border. Otherwise, the cold front
continues to move farther east of the area and will be moving off
the NC Coast early this morning. With the ongoing CAA behind the
front, temperatures will continue to drop over the higher elevations.
As a result, we are still expecting the rain to transition to snow
over the next few hours along the NC/TENN Border and mtn peaks above
4000 ft or so. Advisory level accums are not anticipated. In addition,
the freeze warning that is currently active for the higher elevations
will be extended for the rest of the day and into Tues morning. For
early Tues, a few more zones have been added to the current warning
since freezing temps will likely encompass a larger area. Windy
conditions will continue thru the near-term period across the
mountains with breezy conditions elsewhere. The latest model guidance
is generating wind speeds that reach Advisory Criteria above about
3500ft over the Northern Mtns. Thus, we decided to go ahead and issue
a high elevation wind advisory for today (ending at 00z) across the
Northern Mtns. Otherwise, high temps will be around 20 degrees below
climatology across the mountains and about 15 to 17 degrees below
climatology elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday: Upper trough axis will be pushing east as
ridge builds into the center of the country at the start of the
short term period. The wavetrain slides east during the day Tuesday
with increasing thicknesses and nearly full sun, allowing the post-
frontal temperatures today to rebound to seasonal values for
Tuesday, resulting in a really pretty day across the area. Surface
gradient will still be pretty strong with developing warm frontal
feature ahead of yet another surface low gearing up across the
Plains, so expect a bit of a breeze on Tuesday especially across the
mountains. Not out of the question that we might have to consider a
high-elevation wind advisory but a little too far out to have that
much confidence.

As shortwave coming off the northern Rockies (and inducing aforesaid
Plains surface low development) will deepen into a small closed low
over the Upper MS Valley on Wednesday, pushing a front toward the
Appalachians. While the upper ridge will decrease in amplitude as it
moves over us ahead of the front, should see enough airmass
modification and increasing low level WAA to see temperatures climb
several degrees above seasonal normals for Wednesday afternoon,
approaching 80 across much of the Piedmont. The mainly dry front
will push into the mountains Wednesday night and there should be
enough orographic lift to squeeze at least a little precip out
across mainly the TN border counties. Any precip will be short-lived
and should be over by daybreak Thursday, with lows pretty close to
or just slightly below seasonal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM EDT Monday: The upper trough axis swings through at the
start of the period, knocking highs Thursday down several degrees
from those on Wednesday, though still a hair above seasonal normals.
Skies will clear through the day from whatever lingering moisture
might be left from the dry front early in the morning, and still
expect a bit of a breeze with the strong surface gradient in place
as winds shift to NW behind the front. Lows Thursday night back
below seasonal, and NW flow aloft will continue Friday into Saturday
as the wavetrain moves into more of an omega pattern with the upper
low spinning over New England and another over the Desert Southwest.
With the trough axis in place, temperatures should be on the cool
side of normal Friday into Saturday.

The Desert Southwest Upper low will push off into the Rockies early
Saturday with another surface low developing across the Southern
Plains. For that far out, global models are in striking agreement
with the overall pattern, which has the low pushing across the
Plains Saturday and toward the MS Valley early Sunday. Some
indications that at least brief damming may form on Sunday as the
warm front tries to lift into the Appalachians, with upglide
allowing a few showers to form. More significant precip should
approach at the very end of the period, but even with the similar
mass fields on the operational guidance, still too far out for much
in the way of details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: expect lingering MVFR cigs to give way to VFR
conditions by 11 or 12z at all sites. Currently, the only exception
is KHKY which has been reporting IFR cigs for the past few hours.
Otherwise, some patchy fog could develop thru mid-morning, however
robust winds should keep it to a minimum. For later today, mid to
high level clouds are expected across the region, becoming SCT/BKN
at times. Gusty WLY to SWLY winds will prevail thru the taf period
with KAVL seeing more of a NWLY direction. Gusts in the 18 to 25 kt
range are expected thru the period.

Outlook: Other than perhaps some lingering mountain showers, dry and
cooler conditions will continue into mid week. A dry cold front will
arrive from the west on Thursday, with some restrictions possible.

Confidence Table...

            07-13Z        13-19Z        19-01Z        01-06Z
KCLT       Med   72%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  92%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  88%     High  99%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  87%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     GAZ010.
NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ051-052-058-059-
     062-063.
     Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-049-050.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
     NCZ048-053-064-065.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...TDP
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...JPT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1050 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-064-
065-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-170300-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-
Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-
Union-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1050 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-170300-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
1050 PM EDT Sun Apr 15 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Freeze Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

SGL