Freeze Warning 2, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

171 
WWUS72 KGSP 071624
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1224 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SUNDAY MORNING...

.A colder air mass will settle across the region tonight in the
wake of a departing cold front. Clearing skies and gradually
diminishing winds will allow temperatures at or below freezing
early Sunday morning in the northeast Georgia mountains, the
Upstate South Carolina mountains, and sections of the North
Carolina foothills and Piedmont.

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-068-069-072-508-510-SCZ001>003-
080030-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.180408T0400Z-180408T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Cabarrus-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Statesville, 
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, 
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain,
Lincolnton, Crouse, Concord, Kannapolis, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, 
Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, 
and Cleveland
1224 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains of northeast Georgia and Upstate 
  South Carolina, as well as the southern foothills and 
  northwest piedmont of western North Carolina.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid 50s.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

SGL

078 
WWUS72 KGSP 072119
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
519 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SUNDAY MORNING...

.A colder air mass will settle across the region tonight in the
wake of a departing cold front. Clearing skies and gradually
diminishing winds will allow temperatures at or below freezing
early Sunday morning in the northeast Georgia mountains, the
Upstate South Carolina mountains, and sections of the North
Carolina foothills and Piedmont.

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-068-069-072-508-510-SCZ001>003-
080900-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.180408T0400Z-180408T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Cabarrus-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Statesville, 
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, 
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain,
Lincolnton, Crouse, Concord, Kannapolis, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, 
Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, 
and Cleveland
519 PM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
10 AM EDT SUNDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains of northeast Georgia and Upstate 
  South Carolina, as well as the southern foothills and 
  northwest piedmont of western North Carolina.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows in the lower 30s.

* IMPACTS...Frost and freeze conditions may damage sensitive 
  vegetation. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the 
  cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$
JPT

218 
WWUS72 KGSP 080800
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME AREAS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS 
AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS MORNING...

.Temperatures will dip below freezing this morning in parts of 
the northeast Georgia mountains, the Upstate South Carolina 
mountains, and sections of the North Carolina foothills and 
Piedmont.

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-068-069-072-508-510-SCZ001>003-
081400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180408T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Cabarrus-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City, 
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Statesville, 
Mooresville, Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, 
Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain,
Lincolnton, Crouse, Concord, Kannapolis, Forest City, 
Rutherfordton, Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, 
Mountain Rest, Walhalla, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, 
and Cleveland
400 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains of northeast Georgia and Upstate 
  South Carolina, as well as the southern foothills and 
  northwest piedmont of western North Carolina.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows at or slightly below 32.

* IMPACTS...Freeze conditions may damage sensitive vegetation. 
  Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$
Wimberley

759 
WWUS72 KGSP 081324
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
924 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-068-069-072-508-510-SCZ001>003-
081430-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-180408T1400Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Cabarrus-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
924 AM EDT Sun Apr 8 2018

...FREEZE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has
cancelled the Freeze Warning.

Temperatures across the warned area have risen above freezing,
thus the Freeze Warning has been cancelled. 

$$

SGL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
400 AM EDT Sat Apr 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure and a cold front will move across the region today,
bringing precipitation to the area. Dry high pressure will move
back in for Sunday. Another system will impact the area early next
week with additional precipitation expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM: Low pressure is moving across New England attm, with
a trailing cold front extending to the western Gulf Coast. Behind
this front, a very cold Canadian airmass is expanding south and
east. More on that in a bit. Aloft, a broad trough is present over
the eastern CONUS; an embedded shortwave will move through our
region this morning. Warm advection over the CWFA is responsible
for ongoing showers, which have progressed across the area a little
faster than originally anticipated. These showers may taper off
or move off to the east over the next few hrs, though abundant
cloud cover is expected to linger.

The shortwave carries with it a weak surface reflection in the form
of a low along the front. Most short-term guidance depicts this
low crossing just south of the CWFA later this morning. While the
warm sector of the low is expected to be active with convection, we
should remain on the cool side of the boundary. Nonetheless as the
low skirts by the lower Piedmont, enough forcing will be present to
maintain categorical PoPs there into afternoon; the northwest half
of the area will see precip become more intermittent. Plentiful
moisture and the continued presence of cyclonic flow warrants
a small PoP on its own in that area, but chances are especially
warranted as another shortwave approaches the area later today,
bringing appreciable Q-vector convergence. Confidence on timing is
not that high, but this second round of precip looks most likely
to be a late afternoon and early evening event.

As the aforementioned cold high pressure pushes into the mountains
and I-40 corridor today, temperatures will fall in nondiurnal
fashion. Northwest winds will provide upslope forcing on top
of whatever is forced by the shortwave. Both NAM and GFS depict
temperature profiles cooling unevenly, which will leave a warm nose
in play and make the p-type forecast rather tricky. A chance of
sleet exists over the high terrain as temps near freezing this aftn,
eventually changing to snow near the Tenn border if it continues
into evening. Though temperatures will tumble this afternoon and
evening over the NC Piedmont, they do not cool fast enough for this
area to see any wintry precip. Any remaining precip is expected
to end around midnight.

The sharply colder temps are expected to bring a freeze to all
zones previously included in the Freeze Watch. Hence those zones
are all now in a Freeze Warning from midnight to 10 AM Sunday. While
temperatures will fall into the mid 30s over most of the Upstate and
NE GA south of the warnings, the current wind and dewpoint forecasts
are not conducive to much frost. However, day shift will have the
opportunity to revisit this and could issue a Frost Advisory in a
portion of this area. Note that the frost-freeze program has not
yet been activated in the mountains and northern NC foothills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 am Saturday: Primarily low-amplitude upper troughing will
persist across the East through the short term, with a couple of
short wave troughs expected to cause brief amplification, and keep
the weather regime somewhat unsettled, if not especially noteworthy
through the period. The approach of the first of these waves will be
responsible for instigating a moist WAA regime across much of the
Southeast by Monday morning, although deterministic model guidance
remains at odds on the degree of qpf response during this time. The
NAM remains by far the wettest model: suggesting amounts of .1-.25
inch are likely, mainly across the southern half of the area. Other
guidance is barely even half of that, and SREF guidance suggests the
operational NAM is a wet outlier within the ARW/NMM core. Pops will
generally be featured at 50-60 percent across the area, with qpf of
around a tenth of an inch or less. Temps will likely be cold enough
for some type of wintry precip across the high elevations of western
NC (generally above 4kft across the southern/central mtns, and above
3kft or so across the northern mtns). P-type is somewhat ambiguous
due to a lack of model consensus regarding moisture depth/
uncertainty about the presence of any dendrites in the cloud layer.
The forecast currently advertises snow or a rain/snow mix above the
aforementioned elevations with light accums, but the p-type could
just as easily be FZRA/FZDZ in those areas.

Conditions begin to dry out Monday night/early Tue, but with another
area of height falls following rather quickly on the heels of the
first, downslope drying will be somewhat slow to develop, with low
clouds possibly lingering through at least Tue morning. Surface
boundary associated with this second wave will pass near the area by
late Tuesday, possibly bringing another chance for precip, but those
chances will be small due to diminishing moisture. Max temps are
forecast to be well below normal Sunday and Monday, returning to
normal levels by Tuesday under decreasing cloud cover. Min temps
will be very close to climo through the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 335 am Saturday: The eastern upper trough will hold its own for
the first day or two of the medium range, reinforced by a couple of
fast-moving, moisture-starved short waves passing mainly north of
our area during mid-week. However, as a major storm system churns
across the Four Corners region, which will eventually evolve into a
Great Plains vertically-stacked cyclone, upper ridging will build
across the East during days 6/7. The result will be an extended
period of dry weather as well as a strong warming trend, with temps
likely warming to around 10 degrees above normal by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A cold front situated over the Appalachians
is producing widespread SHRA in its vicinity. Due to the advance of
an approaching shortwave and increasing upper divergence over the
Piedmont, the front will shift east toward daybreak. Thus the SHRA
will overtake all the TAF sites this morning, though conditions
initially will remain VFR in general. Most guidance begins to
introduce lower cigs and vsby later this morning during higher
precip rates. Also today, the shortwave and its weak sfc reflection
along the front will move east of the area, inducing a northerly
wind shift as cold high pressure starts to move in. Beneath the
resulting inversion, an area of IFR cigs is expected to develop and
linger into at least late evening. Both raw models and MOS sources
do depict drier air scouring out the low deck overnight tonight,
though I would not be surprised if the more eastern sites do not
go solidly VFR again until daybreak Sunday. One final note: the
colder air moving into the mtns this aftn will initiate a change to
a wintry mix at least at high elevations. Right now it looks like
precip will taper off at KAVL/KHKY before the colder air arrives,
but the fcst still could change.

Outlook: The synoptic pattern will remain active over the next
several days, though drier conditions are expected on Sunday as high
pressure briefly returns over the area. Another system approaches
the region early next week with restrictions possible.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       Med   75%     High  80%     Med   76%     High  80%
KGSP       Med   77%     High  82%     Med   67%     Med   67%
KAVL       High  80%     High  82%     Med   64%     High  81%
KHKY       Med   75%     High  85%     Med   67%     Med   68%
KGMU       High  82%     High  82%     Med   67%     Med   60%
KAND       High  95%     High  92%     Med   61%     Med   68%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     GAZ010-017.
NC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     NCZ036-037-056-057-068-069-072-508-510.
SC...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     SCZ001>003.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...Wimberley

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
332 PM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>507-509-071945-
Avery-Alexander-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-
Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
332 PM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070-071-082-SCZ004>014-019-071945-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
332 PM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for much of northeast Georgia,
Upstate South Carolina, and the piedmont of western North Carolina,
including the Charlotte metro area.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...Frost/freeze possible. A cold air mass settling over the
area is expected to allow temperatures to dip to the lower to mid
30s across much of Upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia, and
the North Carolina Piedmont Sunday morning. Tender vegetation could
be damaged in areas where the growing season has begun.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-NCZ036-037-056-057-068-069-072-508-510-SCZ001>003-071945-
Rabun-Habersham-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Cabarrus-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
332 PM EDT Fri Apr 6 2018

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the southern foothills
and northwest piedmont of western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...Frost/freeze likely. A cold air mass settling over the
area is expected to allow temperatures to dip into the lower 30s
Sunday morning. Tender vegetation could be damaged in areas where
the growing season has begun.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

HG