Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018
Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood warning at Sep 30, 2018, 1:53 AM EDT for Buncombe County, McDowell County, Rutherford County, North Carolina. It was in force for 3 hr. 3 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 30, 2018, 1:53 AM EDT (05:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 30, 2018, 4:45 AM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties Buncombe County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Rutherford County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 69 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 05:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2:30 AM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 4 W Lake Lure, NC | STREAM GAUGE ON THE ROCKY BROAD RIVER AT BAT CAVE EXCEEDED ITS ESTABLISHED FLOOD STAGE OF 7.5 FEET. AT THIS LEVEL CAMPGROUNDS AND SOME ROADS NEAR THE RIVER MAY BE FLOODED WITH THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS DOWNSTREAM IN RUTHERFORD COUNTY. AS OF 315 AM THE GAUGE WAS |
| Sep 30, 3:00 AM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 6 Se Black Mountain, NC | FLOODING ALONG DUCK AND GRICE BRANCHES WITH AT LEAST ONE BRIDGE WASHED OUT. |
| Sep 30, 4:00 AM EDT | FLASH FLOOD | 2 Ne Lake Lure, NC | PICTURES SHARED WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA OF A BRIDGE WASHED OUT OVER BUFFALO CREEK FLOWING INTO LAKE LURE IN THE RUMBLING BALD RESORT AREA. TIME ESTIMATED BY USING THE GAUGE AT THE ROCKY BROAD RIVER IN BAT CAVE. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 6 storm reports to this flash flood warning; the first came 37 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 222 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 71 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -28 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 921 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 50 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
820
WGUS52 KGSP 300553
FFWGSP
NCC021-111-161-300845-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.W.0063.180930T0553Z-180930T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
153 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2018
The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Southwestern McDowell County in western North Carolina...
West central Rutherford County in western North Carolina...
Southeastern Buncombe County in western North Carolina...
* Until 445 AM EDT.
* At 143 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to five inches of rain have
fallen across portions of the area since Saturday evening.
Additional rainfall of up to two inches appears likely before the
rain tapers off.
* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lake Lure, Chimney Rock Village, Chimney Rock State Park, Bat Cave
and Old Fort.
The main impacts of runoff from this heavy rainfall will be flooding
of small streams near the area where Rutherford, McDowell, and
Buncombe Counties come together. This includes streams such as
Laurel Creek, Bird Creek, and the headwaters of the Broad River,
where the stream gauge at Bat Cave will likely reach the established
flood stage of 7.5 feet. At this level, some pedestrian bridges
crossing the river in the Chimney Rock area will likely be flooded,
as well as some campgrounds and low lying roads along the river.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.
&&
LAT...LON 3562 8215 3544 8218 3541 8227 3542 8227
3545 8228 3547 8227 3550 8233 3549 8234
3550 8235 3562 8228
$$
LANE1 follow-up statement
926
WGUS72 KGSP 300727
FFSGSP
Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2018
NCC021-111-161-300845-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-180930T0845Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-Buncombe NC-
327 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2018
...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 AM EDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL...WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD AND SOUTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...
At 312 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rainfall was continuing
to taper off across the warned area. However, up to 6 inches of rain
has fallen since Saturday evening. A stream gauge on the Rocky Broad
River near the Henderson and Rutherford County line was about a half
foot over the established flood stage and the river was still rising
quickly. Campgrounds and perhaps a couple of structures along the
river may be flooded from the Henderson County line downstream to
Chimney Rock village. Pedestrian bridges across the river in the
Chimney Rock area will likely be flooded as well.
Other streams experiencing elevated stream flows that could be
flooding low water crossings and other low lying areas include
Laurel Creek, Bird Creek, Taylor Creek, and any small tributaries
flowing into the north side of Lake Lure. In addition, the heavy
rain will likely cause small landslides, which could damage or block
roads in the warning area.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3562 8215 3544 8218 3541 8227 3542 8227
3545 8228 3547 8227 3550 8233 3549 8234
3550 8235 3562 8228
$$
LANEWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 30, 1:29 AM EDT, 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 30, 1:29 AM EDT, 24 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
129 AM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018
.SYNOPSIS...
Forecast will be dominated by high pressure with some chance for
isolated showers at times over the mountains. Winds will be light,
and temperatures will remain above normal and humidity will remain
unseasonably high.
.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Sunday...Convection continues to train along the
escarpment in Buncombe/Rutherford/McDowell counties, and rain totals
continue to add up. Hopefully, rain rates will decrease and this
activity will rain itself out. However, the latest HRRR shows
showers in these areas thru daybreak. Will need to be monitored for
Flash Flood Warning thru the overnight. The other concern is dense
fog developing across the southern Upstate. May need a Dense Fog
Advisory or at least an SPS shortly, if it looks to persist/expand
in area.
Otherwise, lower clouds should be able to fill in and become
widespread again with areas of fog as well. Sunday morning minimum
temperatures will be warm for late September, on the order of 10 deg
F above normal.
Morning clouds will give way to mixed sun and developing shallow
convective clouds as Sunday wears on. The llvl flow will remain weak
from the east to southeast as ridging aloft builds atop the SE CONUS.
At this point, there remains the possibility of isolated diurnally
fired tstms limited to mainly within the axis of high bl dwpts
acrs the sw cwfa and into the mtns. Maximum temperatures should be
similar to yesterday, slightly above normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Saturday: Short term forecast is dominated by a flat
ridge over the South that changes little Monday and Tuesday. This
will lead to continued above normal temperatures and low chances for
precipitation. Surface ridge is also fairly stable through Monday
and Tuesday, running northeast to southwest well east of the
Appalachians. Surface ridge is far enough eastward to limit cold-
air-damming effects, but easterly surface flow is expected Sunday
evening, becoming more southeasterly Monday night as ridge moves a
little farther eastward. Winds should be fairly light in any case,
at 5 to 10 kts. Easterly to southeasterly flow will keep some
Atlantic moisture in the area, supporting dewpoints, and giving low
temperatures 10 degrees above normal. Highs will run 5 to 10 above
normal.
Forecast soundings show that, despite decent boundary layer
moisture, mid to upper levels are warm, and the atmosphere is well-
capped, leading to practically no chance of convective activity.
Only chances for significant precipitation Monday and Tuesday are
isolated showers in the mountains, where upslope low-level flow may
be sufficient for some isolate, though weak, showers.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2pm EDT Saturday: Upper ridge over the South remains the
dominant feature Wednesday through Friday. A weak disturbance that
crosses the top of the ridge (and has the strongest dynamics well
north of the area) may enhance changes for precipitation over the
mountains Wednesday evening, but soundings are otherwise forecast to
remain capped and convectively stable. Once this disturbance passes,
the ridge recovers on Thursday what little strength it lost, and
even strengthens late in the week. Surface ridge will remain well
east of the mountains, giving continued fairly light winds, and
continued southerly to southeasterly flow that will keep dewpoints
elevated. The result will be continued low chances for
precipitation with unseasonably humid and warm conditions, with
highs 10 degrees above normal and lows 15 degrees above normal.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A moist easterly flow will continue
thru the overnight and the morning hours today, resulting in another
round of MVFR to IFR cigs developing in the next few hours. Dense
fog is developing in the southern Upstate, but not expected to
impact the TAF sites, since they didn't see any rain today. Slow
improvement after daybreak today, and though isolated convection is
possible again this afternoon, not enough to include in any TAFs at
this point.
Outlook: Drier conditions are expected from Monday thru at least
midweek, as high pressure dominates over the Southeast.
Confidence Table...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT High 100% High 87% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% Low 50% Med 75% High 100%
KAVL High 91% Low 56% Med 75% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 87% High 81% High 100%
KGMU High 100% Med 75% Med 75% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 81% High 81% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TS
NEAR TERM...ARK/CSH/TDP
SHORT TERM...WJM
LONG TERM...WJM
AVIATION...ARKHazardous weather outlook, Sep 29, 5:18 AM EDT, 20 hours 35 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 518 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018 NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-501>506-300930- Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood- Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Caldwell Mountains- Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains- Eastern McDowell- 518 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and western North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ062>065-068>072-082-507>510-SCZ001>014- 019-300930- Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Macon-Southern Jackson- Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus- Union-Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains- Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains- Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg- Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood- 518 AM EDT Sat Sep 29 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today, before diminishing in the evening. Coverage may be greatest south of Interstate 85. The primary threat with the thunderstorms will be cloud-to-ground lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... None.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 29, 9:58 PM EDT, 3 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
958 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2018
NCZ503>506-300245-
McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-Greater Burke NC-
Eastern McDowell NC-
958 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2018
...A HEAVY RAIN SHOWER WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND WEST
CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...
At 957 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a heavy rain shower 6 miles
northeast of Marion, or near Lake James. This shower was nearly
stationary.
Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Lake James State Park, Lake James, Nebo, North Cove, Ashford,
Woodlawn and Little Switzerland.
Very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3574 8179 3564 8199 3578 8208 3580 8209
3581 8210 3584 8209 3590 8192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 059DEG 1KT 3577 8195
TDPThe office that day
Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 9:58 PM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | McDowell | 47 min |
| Sep 29, 10:20 PM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Buncombe, Burke, McDowell, Rutherford | 115 min |
| Sep 30, 12:53 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Rutherford | 112 min |
| Sep 30, 4:46 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | Buncombe, Henderson, McDowell, Rutherford | 4 hr |
| Sep 30, 9:32 AM EDT | Areal Flood Advisory | GSP | Buncombe, Polk, Rutherford | 118 min |
| Sep 30, 9:39 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GSP | McDowell | 3 hr |
| Sep 30, 10:28 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GSP | McDowell | 92 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in North Carolina, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.