Flash Flood Warning 60, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
805 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
The remnants of Florence will cross the mountains tonight reaching
eastern Tennessee and continue north Monday and turn northeast into
Tuesday.  The threat of heavy rain continues for the region through
Monday before improving going into mid week. Expect a chance of
showers returning toward the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT: The circulation center of Florence was moving
slowly to the north and northwest over the Upstate, with the
heavier rain shifting northward over the NW Piedmont and east of
the fcst area. Rainfall rates have tapered off across much of the
Charlotte metro area and along the Escarpment south of Old Fort,
with precip becoming light and more intermittent along and w of
I-26 and most of the rest of the Upstate. Will consider dropping
a few more zones from the FFA later this evening. As for winds,
the pressure gradient continues to move outward from the remnant
circulation and north of the area, however, the Wind Advisory
was extended until Midnight for the northern mtns and adjacent
foothill zones based on some of the high elevation wind obs we
continue to receive from Beech Mtn, indicating occasional gusts
upwards of 50 mph. As for the tornado threat, will not rule out
a small risk over the wrn Piedmont until we get to an hour or so
after sunset, what with plenty of shear/helicity still seen on the
mesoanalysis. Will keep isolated to scattered thunder mention there.

Overnight, the heavier rain bands will shift north and tornado
threat should abate as we lose instability. Low clouds and tropical
air mass in place will keep temps about 5 to 10 degrees above
normal overnight.

Monday, the remnants of Florence will exit north of forecast area
by daybreak, turning the flow around out of the SW. Mid-level dry
air will punch in across the Piedmont, but deeper moisture will
remain along the TN border. Breaks in the clouds is expected, and
lingering low-level moisture will support 1000-2000 J/kg of SBCAPE
along and east of I-85 by mid-aftn. Showers will likely develop
in the mountains and along a convergence zone on the leading edge
of a dry slot during the aftn. The CAMs seem to keep most of the
Piedmont convection along our eastern edge of the forecast area
and to the east. Shear becomes weak and overall unidirectional. So
severe threat looks low. Highs will be rebound to a category or
two above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Sunday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
portions of the area through Monday evening.

By Monday night, the remnants of Florence will become an open wave
aloft and will move up the Ohio River Valley. It will gradually push
eastward, bringing a surface trough and lingering wrap around
moisture across the forecast area Monday night through Tuesday. This
will result in isolated showers, especially across the higher
elevations, before gradually tapering off from south to north late
Tuesday. Additional rainfall amounts of a quarter of an inch or less
expected Monday night throught Tuesday night. A few gusty winds are
possible on Tuesday as low level flow shifts NW behind the trough
and could result in some downslope acceleration of gusts to 15-20
kts.

Drying trend begins Tuesday night as high pressure begins to build
into the region. Temperatures throughout the short term will remain
just above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Sunday: High pressure will continue to provide dry
weather Wednesday through early Thursday. Thursday afternoon through
Friday, the ridge of high pressure will shift east, allowing for
easterly flow to develop and filter in more moist air. Can't rule
out a few showers during the diurnal heating to end the work week.

As we progress into the weekend, weather will remain unsettled as a
surface boundary moves closer to the FA. Expect the potential for
showers and thunderstorms to expand across the entire area beginning
Friday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. Rainfall
amounts will be minimal. Temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds continue to slowly decrease, as the
remnants of Florence weakens and drifts northward this evening. The
position of the remnant circulation was playing havoc with wind
direction at some of the Upstate TAF sites, but fortunately the
speed is light. Wind should veer to SW by early Monday. Widespread
MVFR/IFR ceilings across the region will deteriorate a bit more to
IFR/LIFR across the region as the boundary layer drops overnight
with the excessively moist air mass. Rain will taper off from south
to north overnight thru Monday morning, only to be replaced most
likely by a fog restriction. As flow turns around out of the SW on
Monday morning, drier air aloft should help scatter out and lift
the lower clouds from south to north in the early afternoon. Models
are indicating that once low clouds scatter out, enough instability
will be present to allow for showers/storms to develop across the
region, so all sites get a PROB30 with associated restrictions
for the bulk of the afternoon.

Outlook: Expect flight conditions to improve Monday night and into
Tuesday, as the remnants of Florence exit north of the area. VFR
conditions are expected for the middle of the week, outside of
diurnal showers and thunderstorms.

Confidence Table...

            00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z        18-00Z
KCLT       High  85%     High  87%     High  82%     High  95%
KGSP       High  87%     Med   67%     Med   69%     High  90%
KAVL       High  96%     High  99%     High  92%     High  84%
KHKY       High  95%     High  87%     High  80%     High  81%
KGMU       High  93%     Med   60%     Med   68%     High  90%
KAND       High  83%     Med   66%     Med   69%     High  96%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>050-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-501>510.
     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ033-048>050-
     501-503-505.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for SCZ008-009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...ARK/PM
SHORT TERM...KM
LONG TERM...KM
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
617 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064-SCZ001>007-
010>013-019-172230-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Greenwood-
617 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through tonight as it moves west through the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia. A few wind gusts could knock down
some tree limbs, causing sporadic power outages.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-053-056-057-065-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-SCZ008-009-
014-172230-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Buncombe-Catawba-Rowan-Henderson-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-Greater Caldwell-
Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-Chester-
617 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina,
western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through tonight as it moves west through the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall,
landslides along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty
winds that could damage trees and power lines. Isolated, brief
tornadoes are possible through this evening as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ033-048>050-501-503-505-172230-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-
McDowell Mountains-
617 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

Tropical Depression Florence will bring significant impacts to the
region through tonight as it moves west through the western
Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Prepare now for flooding rainfall,
landslides along steep terrain in and near the mountains, and gusty
winds that could damage trees and power lines.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Rainfall from Tropical Depression Florence will linger into Monday.
Thus, the threat of flooding rainfall will continue as well as the
potential for landslides along steep terrain in and near the
mountains.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 WSW HUNTERSVILLE      35.38N 80.92W
09/16/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE FELL ACROSS ROADWAY NEAR INTERSECTION OF APRIL
            MIST TRAIL AND BEATTIES FORD RD.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
547 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 N HUNTERSVILLE        35.45N 80.84W
09/16/2018                   MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT/RESCUE REPORTED TREE ON A STRUCTURE ON
            CALDWELL STATION RD.

&&

WIMBERLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
637 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0634 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E SALISBURY           35.67N 80.47W
09/16/2018                   ROWAN              NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED NUMEROUS FLOODED ROADS ACROSS
            THE COUNTY. LAW ENFORCEMENT IS IN PROCESS OF PUTTING
            UP BARRICADES TO CLOSE ROADS.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
725 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG YORK                    34.99N 81.24W
09/16/2018                   YORK               SC   911 CALL CENTER

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN YORK ONE OF WHICH FELL ON A
            ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MCADENVILLE             35.26N 81.08W
09/16/2018                   GASTON             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAM OPERATOR RELAYED REPORT OF HWY 7 IN DOWNTOWN
            MCADENVILLE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

KRENTZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
834 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE PLEASANT GROVE    35.67N 81.56W
09/16/2018                   BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A WATER RESCUE OCCURRING. A
            PORTION OF HENRY FORK IS COVERING RIVER ROAD.

&&