Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

812 
WGUS72 KGSP 120841
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
441 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

NCC011-023-027-121015-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-180912T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell NC-Avery NC-Burke NC-
441 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE
COUNTIES...

At 434 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated continued showers and 
embedded thunderstorms moving repeatedly northeast from just east of 
Jonas Ridge to Edgemont to Upton. Radar and rain gages have 
indicated some 2 to 3 inch rainfall totals in this area over the 
past two hours and additional rainfall at rates of one-half to one 
inch per hour will be possible through 530 AM. Flash flooding is 
likely occurring, or will begin shortly.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Blowing Rock In Caldwell County, Edgemont, Globe, Upton, Jonas 
Ridge, Grandfather Mountain State Park and the Blue Ridge 
Parkway-Linville Falls To Grandfather. Flooding will occur along 
Wilson Creek near Edgemont, with Brown Mountain Beach Road and 
Edgemont Road flooding, and flooding possible at Killians 
Campground. Flooding may also develop on Cooper Branch and Harper 
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is 
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. Be especially 
cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of 
flooding.

A Flash Flood Warning means that flooding is imminent or occurring.
Residents living along streams and creeks should take immediate
precautions to protect life and property. Do not attempt to cross
flooded areas by foot or by automobile.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8158 3600 8169 3590 8180 3596 8190
      3611 8180 3612 8169

$$

HG

526 
WGUS72 KGSP 121012
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
612 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

NCC011-023-027-121020-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-180912T1015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Caldwell NC-Avery NC-Burke NC-
612 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
AVERY AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 615 AM EDT...

At 610 AM EDT, doppler radar indicated that the heavy rain had ended 
across locations near the Avery and Caldwell County border. In 
addition, stream gages are rapidly receding. However, high water 
conditions could persist in a few locations through 8 am. Use 
caution if driving and do not drive through any flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 3612 8158 3600 8169 3590 8180 3596 8190
      3611 8180 3612 8169

$$

HG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
205 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A stationary front will remain from the Texas coast to Virginia
through midweek, bringing showers and thunderstorms to our area.
Hurricane Florence may make landfall somewhere along the Carolina
coast early Friday. There will be an increasing threat for flooding
as the remnants of Florence drifts inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 155 AM: KGSP radar is showing showers and a few
thunderstorms continuing to develop in the upslope zone along
the central and northern parts of the Blue Ridge early this
morning. The 00Z NAMNest handled this activity much better than
the recent HRRR runs, and it pushes it northward along the
northern Blue Ridge through daybreak. There should be just
enough movement to avoid any hydro issues, and any showers
elsewhere this morning will be quite spotty.

Otherwise, a 592 to 594 dm 500 mb ridge will remain draped over the
forecast area today through Thursday as Hurricane Florence
approaches the Carolina coastline well to the east. The main forcing
mechanism for our region will be continued easterly upslope flow at
low levels. Instability will be best in the lower piedmont this
afternoon, but terrain forcing will remain highest along the eastern
escarpment of the mountains, and also along the ridge tops. Will
feature numerous showers and thunderstorms over the mountains, and
high end scattered PoPs east given the moist boundary layer. Diurnal
activity will then wane steadily tonight, with continued mild
minimum temperatures some 10 degrees above climatology.

The subsidence and drying zone on the western fringe of the Florence
circulation will drift west across our forecast area on Thursday.
Instability will be much less, and more of a NE component to the
surface wind will limit PoPs. Despite the northeast winds,
temperatures will rebound slightly given the better insolation and
subsidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday: The abbreviated short term picks up
00Z Friday with strong upper ridging over the eastern CONUS and
a strong upper high centered off the Mid-Atlantic states
steering Florence into the coast of the Carolinas. Confidence in
the track of Florence leading up to landfall has increased, and
an initial approach very close the the Wilmington, NC area
Thursday evening appears more and more likely at this point.
Florence will then stall along the NC coast, so the main driver
of our local weather on Friday will be a very weak remnant
frontal boundary draped across the southern Appalachians and
Atlantic moisture transport from Florence's large circulation.
Pops Friday are mainly diurnal in nature and favor the eastern
parts of our forecast area (closer to Florence) and the higher
terrain closer to the surface boundary. Winds could be breezy on
Friday in areas east of I-77 as the far outer circulation of
Florence expands inland, but with the current track forecast
stalling it near the coast, even max gusts should remain about
25 mph of less. Max temps will be 5-10 degrees above average due
to the strong eastern upper ridge. It should be noted that
though confidence in this part of the forecast is increasing,
any track shifts that bring Florence inland sooner could mean
more significant wind and rain impacts in our area on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday: The extended forecast picks up at 00z on
Saturday with the broad upper ridge still in place over the Eastern
CONUS and Hurricane Florence expected to be moving very slowly inland
over the Carolinas. The upper ridge is expected to remain over the
region thru the rest of the period with some flattening likely by
the very end of the period next Tuesday. At the surface, Hurricane
Florence is currently fcst to be centered just inland of the North
Carolina Coast by 00z Saturday, and moving very slowly at this point.
From this point onward, the system appears to linger over the Carolinas
into early next week. The majority of the latest model guidance does
not have the system moving north and/or west of the area until the
very end of the extended period, next Tues. It's important to note
that there is still quite a bit of uncertainty with the track of
Florence after it makes landfall. This track uncertainty, of course,
will be very important with respect to local impacts. Any significant
impacts to our forecast area are still roughly 3 to 5 days away, which
leaves a large window for forecast refinement. Based on the current
fcst, tropical-storm force winds could begin over parts of our eastern
fcst area by late Thurs/early Fri, although any wind threat will be
heavily track-dependent. Other hazards to be prepared for include the
potential for flooding rainfall, mudslides and landslides in mountainous
areas, and strong winds capable of downing trees and power lines. Remain
aware of changes to the forecast, and begin taking preparedness actions
now if you have not already done so. Very few people regret being over
prepared. For the latest track forecast and wind speed arrival times,
please visit the National Hurricane Center at http:/www.nhc.noaa.gov.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: With lingering convection moving north along
the Blue Ridge, and away from KAVL, the primary concern the rest of
the morning will be lowering stratus in moist, easterly flow across
the TAF sites. Anticipate clouds filling in at IFR levels early this
morning, with spotty LIFR at times around daybreak. Cloud bases will
improve very slowly today given the continued easterly flow and
deeper moisture up the column to limit instability. Expect MVFR cigs
to linger at least into early afternoon, if not longer. Surface
winds will toggle northeasterly, except remaining southeasterly at
KAVL through the period. Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up
again mainly during the afternoon and evening. Will add categorical
showers at KAVL and also PROB thunder throughout mainly during the
18Z to 00Z period. Spotty lower stratus will return late in the
period as well.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm coverage may come down a bit on
Thursday as a subsidence drying zone west of Florence moves across
the region. Tropical conditions will then approach from the east
late Friday through the weekend with the Florence circulation.
Strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and associated restrictions may
develop and worsen through the weekend.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       High  80%     High  83%     High  91%     High 100%
KGSP       High  87%     High  80%     High  97%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   58%     High  80%     High  97%     High  86%
KHKY       Low   55%     Med   69%     High  96%     High  89%
KGMU       High  92%     High  84%     High  95%     High 100%
KAND       High  96%     Med   74%     High  97%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...Carroll
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1030 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-130230-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1030 PM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will linger through the early overnight.
Cloud to ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The track of Tropical Cyclone Florence will need to be closely
monitored by interests across the western Carolinas and northeast
Georgia throughout the week. Some impact from this system in our
area will be possible late in the week, perhaps from late Thursday
through the weekend, but uncertainty remains too high to be specific
about the exact impacts or precise timing. Please continue to follow
the latest forecasts from the National Hurricane Center.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

SCZ009-014-120145-
York SC-Chester SC-
922 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN
YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 922 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Rock Hill, or 6 miles north of Richburg, moving north
at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, Lesslie, Fort Lawn, Mcconnells, Richburg, Catawba and
Edgemoor.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3470 8087 3462 8096 3459 8104 3471 8112
      3491 8126 3500 8095
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 160DEG 7KT 3481 8105

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
945 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

SCZ009-014-120215-
York SC-Chester SC-
945 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
NORTHEASTERN CHESTER AND SOUTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
EDT...

At 945 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 7 miles southwest of Rock Hill, or 6 miles east of
Mcconnells, moving north at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Rock Hill, York, Newport, Mcconnells, Richburg, Lake Wylie and
Edgemoor.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and
torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3482 8098 3469 8094 3465 8103 3476 8118
      3496 8130 3505 8122 3503 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0145Z 160DEG 7KT 3486 8111

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1021 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

SCZ009-014-120245-
York SC-Chester SC-
1021 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTH
CENTRAL CHESTER AND CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM EDT...

At 1020 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning near York, moving north at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
York, Rock Hill, Clover, Newport, Mcconnells, Lowrys, Lake Wylie and
Bethany.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and very
heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3495 8104 3474 8111 3475 8123 3489 8125
      3508 8135 3516 8129 3515 8112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 160DEG 7KT 3500 8119

MOORE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
256 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

NCZ033-050-501>506-120815-
McDowell Mountains NC-Caldwell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Greater Burke NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Eastern McDowell NC-Mitchell NC-
Avery NC-
256 AM EDT WED SEP 12 2018

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THIS MORNING...

At 249 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a series of showers and
thunderstorms moving slowly northward across the area from Old Fort
to near Blowing Rock. These showers were producing rainfall at rates
nearing one inch per hour in the heaviest downpours. Additional
heavy rain rates are likely through at least 4 AM this morning .

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Marion, Spruce Pine, Gamewell, Blowing Rock In Caldwell
County, Cedar Rock, Linville Falls, B.R. Parkway-Linville Falls To
Grandfather, Lake James State Park and Table Rock.

Low spots may see deep standing and running water through daybreak.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3612 8155 3610 8152 3610 8150 3609 8147
      3609 8145 3607 8144 3607 8141 3604 8139
      3604 8137 3602 8134 3601 8134 3561 8199
      3582 8214 3584 8214 3611 8181 3612 8169
TIME...MOT...LOC 0649Z 234DEG 31KT 3594 8182

HG