Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

218 
WGUS52 KGSP 300412
FFWGSP
GAC137-241-301045-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-180530T1045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1212 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Northeastern Habersham County in northeastern Georgia...
  South central Rabun County in northeastern Georgia...

* Until 645 AM EDT Wednesday.

* At 1211 AM EDT, high water on the Tallulah River has prompted 
  Georgia Power to release extra water from Lake Rabun Mathis Dam 
  and Tugaloo Lake. These releases, combined with the preexisting 
  high water especially on Tiger Creek, will lead to rapid rises 
  downstream of Mathis Dam. 

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
  Tallulah Falls, Lake Rabun, Lakemont, Tallulah Gorge State Park 
  and Tiger. Shady Lane, Mathis Dam Road, and Old 441 will all be 
  impacted and portions of these roads may be flooded. Campgrounds 
  and other low-lying areas along the Tallulah River between Lake 
  Rabun and the Tallulah Gorge may experience rapid rises and flash 
  flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Do not attempt to cross
water-covered roadways, bridges, or low-level crossings. Only a few
inches of rapidly flowing water can carry away your vehicle. It is
not worth the risk. Please TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

When it is safe to do so, please report flood waters or landslides
flowing over roads or threatening property to the National Weather
Service by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, by posting on
our Facebook page, or via Twitter using hashtag NWSGSP. Your message
should describe the event and the specific location where it
occurred, including roadways, nearby cross streets, stream names and
other landmarks.

&&

LAT...LON 3486 8347 3479 8332 3475 8333 3473 8335
      3470 8335 3470 8334 3469 8334 3468 8336
      3466 8338 3473 8345 3473 8350

$$

Carroll

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
251 PM EDT Tue May 29 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Deep tropical moisture will persist over the area through Wednesday
as the remnants of Alberto move northward from Alabama to Kentucky
and eventually to the Great Lakes. A moist airmass will persist into
Friday before southerly flow shifts more to the west. Slightly drier
air will mix in from the west over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday: A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for
the entire CWFA as abundant tropical moisture continues to stream
across the region. Subtropical Depression Alberto continues to make
gradual progression northward this afternoon as the latest satellite
imagery depicts the center of circulation over Northern Alabama.
We've seen an increase in thunderstorm activity over the past couple
of hours as sct breaks in the cloud cover have allowed sfc-based
instability to increase. This instability combined with some decent
low-lvl SRH in the 100 to 250 m2/s2 range, will keep a marginal risk
over the area for severe thunderstorms and isolated tornadoes. The
latest CAM guidance continues to develop numerous discrete cells
thru the late afternoon and into the evening. Localized flooding
and mountain landslides over the higher terrain will continue to be
the primary concern as periods of heavy rainfall are expected to
continue through the near term period. With the already saturated
ground, even marginal wind gusts could easily bring down a few trees.
High temperatures will remain near normal and low temps will stay
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Tuesday: By the start of the short term period
(Wednesday night), the remnant circulation of Alberto will be over
the midwest getting absorbed by a negatively-tilted shortwave trough
lifting out of the Northern Plains. Upper high in the western
Atlantic combined with the slowly merging Alberto/shortwave will
continue to keep a moist fetch from the Gulf across the Southeast
and toward the Southern Appalachians. The trough will slowly lift
through the period as the upper ridge works down over the Bahamas,
with the deep moisture lifting to the northeast as well. A lingering
shortwave embedded in the pattern will push up the OH/TN Valleys
Thursday night into Friday, bringing another push of precip to area.
At least at the start of the period, PW values remain anomalously
high with deep warm cloud processes. Keeping the Flash Flood Watch
in effect through 12z Thursday looks good for now, though the
additional round of convection Thursday afternoon across the
mountains might be enough to warrant another extension...confidence
just not high enough at this time with QPF in the 6-hr period from
18zThu-00zFri less than 1/2 inch (though with the antecedent
conditions, that might be all it takes). Problem is that instability
will increase, Thu afternoon, both the NAM and GFS are creeping
SBCAPEs upwards of 3000J/kg across the escarpment/foothills/adjacent
Piedmont which could seriously intensify convective rates.

That secondary wave of moisture gets caught up over the mountains
Thursday night into Friday morning and might have a slow start with
convective initiation initially across the Piedmont, but still
enough to increase afternoon Piedmont pops to high chance. Keep pops
going overnight across the mountains with likelies again by Friday
afternoon.

Should see a slow warming trend through the period, pushing 90 for a
high across the Piedmont by Friday afternoon and continued very
muggy (yuck)...heat indices might be pushing the mid-90s with the
dewpoints remaining quite high at around 70 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 155 PM Tuesday: A southern tier ridge centered over Texas
will try to briefly ridge into our region Friday night into
Saturday but make little progress.  A weak surface frontal boundary
settles southward through the area to provide a very modest airmass
change. However, a digging northern stream trough will approach the
southern and central Appalachians Sunday and then cross the
mountains on Monday. This feature will enhance convection at a time
when CAPE values will be low on Monday. However, looking at Sunday
PM the GFS has 2000 to 3000 CAPE over the western tip of NC and the
upper Savannah Valley at the time when the EC has the axis of trough
crossing our region. Minor vortices crossing our area on Sunday
afternoon could spark strong convection over NE GA and adjacent
areas. Highest POPs Sunday and Monday along with warmer temps than
what we have had recently.  Above climo maxes on Saturday will dip
below climo by Monday, but with mild nighttime mins continuing.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A mixture of MVFR/IFR/LIFR will continue
across the area thru the 18z TAF period. We have seen some cloud
to ground lightning activity commence over the past couple of hours
and expect thunderstorm coverage will increase thru the afternoon
hours. Heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible in stronger
storms thru the afternoon and into the evening. Shower coverage of
is expected to wane into the overnight hours, with mostly just rain
showers expected. Winds will remain out of the SE in the 5 to 10 kt
range and eventually veer around to a more SLY direction by tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook: Expect continued rounds of scattered to widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms along with low cigs and briefly reduced
vsbys as tropical moisture lingers through at midweek. Drier air begins
to move into the area towards the end of the week, with some degree
of diurnal convection expected.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  91%     Med   70%     High  83%
KGSP       High  85%     High  83%     Med   76%     High  95%
KAVL       High  90%     Med   76%     High  97%     High  97%
KHKY       Med   78%     Low   57%     Low   56%     High  97%
KGMU       Med   75%     High  84%     High  80%     High  95%
KAND       Med   65%     Med   69%     Med   75%     High  95%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall over the past two weeks across much of the forecast
area, particularly the mountains, has set the stage for serious
flooding and landslide issues to possibly develop with any
additional tropical rainfall through mid-week. Numerical model
profiles exhibiting precipitable water values of 1.75 to 2 inches,
and deep warm cloud layers in excess of 12 kft, will make for highly
efficient heavy rainfall processes and further increase the threat
of flash flooding and river flooding. Hydro problems will
likely continue through tonight, and possibly through Wednesday
night across the mountains.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for GAZ010.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for GAZ017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501>510.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for SCZ001>003.
     Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for SCZ004>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...DEO
HYDROLOGY...

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Corrected
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
300930-
Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-
Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the foothills and piedmont of
northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, as well as the North
Carolina piedmont.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across northeast Georgia and
Upstate South Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

GAZ010-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-300930-
Rabun-Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
523 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of northeast
Georgia, western North Carolina, and Upstate South Carolina, as well
as the North Carolina foothills.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

In addition to the flooding threat, thunderstorms embedded within
any bands of heavy rain showers may also produce cloud-to-ground
lightning strikes today and tonight. There is also a small chance of
isolated tornadoes or damaging downburst winds with a few of these
thunderstorms, with the greatest chance across the far southwest
mountains of North Carolina.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Thursday...Heavy rain with flooding possible.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

HG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

SCZ013-292245-
Union SC-
558 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT UNION COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Union, or near Rose Hill State Park, moving north at
25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Union, Monarch Mill, Buffalo, Jonesville, Rose Hill State Park,
Sedalia, Adamsburg and Santuc.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3456 8168 3455 8169 3456 8171 3455 8172
      3456 8175 3481 8179 3485 8177 3485 8147
      3482 8147 3482 8149 3481 8148 3453 8152
      3453 8164
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 172DEG 22KT 3462 8164

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
609 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNW LENOIR            35.95N 81.55W
05/29/2018                   CALDWELL           NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            INDIAN GRAVE ROAD AT BILL TUTTLE ROAD FLOODED. BLAIRS
            FORK ROAD FLOODED AND CLOSED.

&&

TPALMER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

SCZ011-012-019-292300-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
622 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT WESTERN
LAURENS...EAST CENTRAL ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 622 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms with torrential
rainfall along a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Laurens to
6 miles north of Belvedere, and moving north at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenwood, Laurens, Ware Shoals, Ninety Six, Gray Court, Cross Hill,
Cokesbury, Waterloo, Hodges and Lake Greenwood.

Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8205 3399 8215 3397 8218 3402 8225
      3420 8225 3434 8233 3478 8214 3474 8210
      3424 8191 3420 8194 3414 8189 3410 8190
      3395 8204
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 190DEG 22KT 3441 8223 3362 8195

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
625 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 SSW TABLE ROCK        35.79N 81.83W
05/29/2018                   BURKE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED CANOE CREEK FLOODING BROWNING
            VIEW ROAD.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
645 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      ARDEN                   35.47N 82.52W
05/29/2018                   BUNCOMBE           NC   SOCIAL MEDIA

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF UP TO 6 INCHES OF WATER FLOWING
            RAPIDLY DOWN CEDAR LANE IN ARDEN. NOT CLEAR IF A
            STREAM IS INVOLVED OR NOT.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
648 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-292330-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-
648 PM EDT TUE MAY 29 2018

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL IMPACT WESTERN
MECKLENBURG...EASTERN GASTON AND NORTHEASTERN YORK COUNTIES UNTIL 730
PM EDT...

At 647 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with
torrential rainfall 7 miles southeast of Gastonia, or near Cramerton,
moving north at 15 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Huntersville, Mt Holly, Belmont, Dallas, Stanley,
Cramerton, Town Of Lake Wylie, Lowell and Ranlo.

Torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in
these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

&&

LAT...LON 3508 8096 3506 8116 3538 8124 3540 8091
TIME...MOT...LOC 2247Z 175DEG 15KT 3518 8107

LANE