Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
330 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into
this evening. A few light rain showers will linger overnight and
Friday. It will be hot and quite humid this weekend with high
temperatures in the middle 80s to lower 90s with dry conditions.
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Primary short term fcst concerns involve determining convective
potential through this evening.

A consensus of latest high res CAMs suggest that a broken line of
showers and thunderstorms will develop roughly along to east of a
line from KMOP to KAZO late this afternoon just ahead of the cold
front. Convective development will also be enhanced by a mid
level shortwave. An isolated severe storm already developed north
of KMOP early this afternoon where sfc based instability was
maximized (near 2500 j/kg).

Isolated strong to marginally severe storms are expected through late
this afternoon/early evening with moderate instability in place
(sb cape values have reached 1500-2500 j/kg with ml cape values of
around 1000 j/kg north of I-96). However the severe weather threat
remains low mainly due to weak deep layer shear values of only
15-20 kts.

The front will stall out overnight and some showers will linger
into Friday. Patchy fog will also develop overnight particularly
in areas that received rainfall this afternoon/evening. Temperatures
will be seasonable Friday with partly sunny skies after patchy
early morning fog dissipates. Latest HREF guidance suggests
scattered light rain showers will linger Friday with convective
development Friday afternoon east of our fcst area.

Southwest flow waa will result in an increasingly hot and humid
conditions Saturday when high temps will reach the middle to upper
80s with dry conditions and partly to mostly sunny skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

The main challenge in the long term deals with the potential for
strong/svr storms and heavy rain early next week.

The latest run of the GFS is showing an earlir and stronger push of
the mid level wave and associated front, taking them southeast of
the CWA by Tuesday.  The incoming High Res Euro still holds onto a
scenario featuring the main wave holding back and not arriving til
Tuesday.  As a result, there in increased uncertainty as to how long
the potential for storms will exist early next week.  Satellite and
aircraft data suggest the High Res Euro has a better handle on this
wave, that is currently between CA and HI. Will keep the mention of
storms going into Tuesday as a result.  Given the high PWAT airmass
in place along with strengthening deep layer shear...an increased
risk for strong to severe storms with very heavy rainfall may exist.

Behind the departing wave will feature mainly dry conditions for
Wednesday with temperatures closer to normal for this time of the
year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 133 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

The atmosphere continues to destabilize and showers and
thunderstorms are expected to expand around the region in the next
by 19z. It appears they will form into a broken line from roughly
KGRR to just west of KAZO and then head east. Thus nearly all TAF
sites feature a period of showers and thunderstorms prior to
sunset.

Low clouds and fog look likely to move in tonight. IFR and lower
impacts are possible. Looking upstream at this time...lots of low
clouds exist in Wisconsin, so as this system builds east, tomorrow
may be fairly cloudy with mainly MVFR impacts during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

Southwest winds of 10 to 20 kts will result in wave heights in the
1 to 4 foot range late this afternoon. Winds will veer to the
northwest to north overnight and diminish which will result in
wave heights subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Fairly minimal wind speeds
and wave heights are forecast Friday into the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1233 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

River levels are running around to a little below normal for the
time of year. Abnormally dry conditions continue over much of the
area, especially in the greater Lansing region. The U.S. Drought
Monitor shows a moderate drought has developed over that area.

Localized heavy rain will be possible today. It will then be dry
through most of the weekend. A front will stall out over the area
early next week and a slow moving shortwave will track in from the
west. The flood potential is low, but beneficial rain is possible
today and early next week.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
SHORT TERM...Laurens
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...Laurens

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
118 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-030845-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
118 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
this evening. An isolated severe thunderstorm is possible with a
local damaging wind and large hail risk being the main hazard. Any
stronger storms could contain gusty winds, small hail, frequent
lightning and heavy downpours.

Locally dense fog may form late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few non severe storms are possible Friday around Lansing and
Jackson. After a hot, humid and mostly dry weekend, periodic
thunderstorm chances will exist next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

LMZ844>849-030845-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
118 PM EDT Thu Aug 2 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon are not expected to be severe
but may produce cloud to water lightning strikes, small hail, and
gusty winds. A moderate risk of rip currents will exist today for
Muskegon, Grand Haven, and Holland area beaches.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

After a mostly dry weekend, periodic thunderstorm chances will
exist next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Meade  MJS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
439 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

MIZ046-051-052-057>059-064>066-071>073-022330-
Kalamazoo MI-Montcalm MI-Clinton MI-Isabella MI-Gratiot MI-Ionia MI-
Calhoun MI-Eaton MI-Allegan MI-Barry MI-Van Buren MI-Kent MI-
439 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

At 435 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Oil City to near Paw Paw Lake. Movement
was northeast at 25 mph. Additional thunderstorm development and
intensification is likely through the evening along and ahead of
this line of storms.

Small hail and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorms
this evening in addition to cloud to ground lightning. An isolated
severe thunderstorm or two is a possibility as well, so continue
monitoring radar if you have outdoor plans.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4224 8622 4225 8635 4370 8472
      4371 8461 4347 8461 4346 8437 4306 8437
      4209 8532
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 242DEG 21KT 4366 8459 4224 8627

HOVING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
450 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             3 E DORR                42.73N 85.67W
08/02/2018  M0.25 INCH       ALLEGAN            MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NEAR US 131 AND 142ND ST.

&&

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