Small Craft Advisory 38, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
326 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Short Term/Long Term/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

A cold front moving through Lower Michigan will generate
thunderstorms this evening. Cooler and less humid weather will
filter in behind the front for the remainder of the week. We may see
some rain late in the weekend depending on the track of what's left
of tropical storm Gordon. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s are
expected beginning Thursday and continuing through the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

Forecast concerns deal with convective trends tonight.

Surface analysis at 3 pm shows a cold front stretching from near
Cheboygan southwest to Ludington. Radar shows a broken line of
storms along/ahead of the front and we expect showers/storms to roll
through the cwa this evening. Conditions ahead of the front are
fairly ripe for storms. Shear isn't much...less than 25 knots, but
SBCAPE is decent...2000 j/kg and so is DCAPE....1200 j/kg, which
suggest a downdraft threat. There have been some bowing line
segments in Wisconsin and we'll watch for those types of cell as
they cross the lake. The cold front will push through the cwa by
late evening leaving shallow cooler air behind. It's possible we
could see some patchy fog overnight.

We'll see decreasing cloudiness beginning Thursday with mostly clear
skies continuing into Friday. Lows in the 50s and much less humid
weather is expected for the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

High pressure over Ontario will feed cooler and drier air across
Michigan over the weekend. Meanwhile, the remnants of tropical storm
Gordon will get caught up in the frontal boundary over Missouri and
begin to move northeast toward Lower Michigan. Model trends have
tended to push the main area of precipitation with it farther
southeast. However, the southeast cwa still could see some rain from
the system Sunday/Sunday night. Conditions will dry out Monday and
continue through mid week with high pressure over the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

Showers/storms beginning to develop over the area as a cold front
approaches. Included storms at the taf sites late this afternoon.
This front has shallow cool air behind it and likely won't be
enough to scour our low level moisture. As a result, we'll likely
see some fog and IFR conditions overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

Small craft advisory remains in effect until 8 pm. Waves will
continue to decrease late this afternoon and early evening. It's
possible we may need to extend the advisory through midnight, but
will wait until closer to 8 pm to make that call depending on wave
heights at the time.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 124 PM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

River levels are running high across West Michigan, but the latest
observations are showing most locations falling. More rain, up to an
inch, could fall this afternoon/evening leading to some minor
flooding. A dry Thursday into Saturday should lead to lower river
levels through the weekend. The track of Gordon's remnants will
determine precipitation into early next week and could increase the
threat for river flooding.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ037-
     043-050-056.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ846>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-060800-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. Severe
weather is not likely, however some storms may have winds up
around 50 mph and locally heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

There will be a chance of thunderstorms on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not likely.

LMZ844>849-060800-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 5 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon. Severe weather is not
likely, however some storms may have winds up around 50 mph and
locally heavy downpours.

Conditions will be hazardous for Small Craft and swimmers through
today, especially north of Holland where waves will be at or above
4 feet.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not likely.

NJJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
704 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2018

MIZ065>067-072>074-060000-
Kalamazoo MI-Ingham MI-Calhoun MI-Eaton MI-Barry MI-Jackson MI-
704 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2018

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...

At 702 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking showers and thunderstorms
capable of producing locally strong wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph.
Gusty winds are also possible along a southeastward-moving outflow
boundary from Woodbury to Kalamazoo.

Locations impacted include...
Lansing...             Kalamazoo...           Portage...
Jackson...             Charlotte...           Albion...
Mason...               Marshall...            Eaton Rapids...
Waverly...             Vandercook Lake...     Haslett...
East Lansing...        Grand Ledge...         Battle Creek...
Williamston...         Vicksburg...           Potterville...
Galesburg...           Leslie...

LAT...LON 4207 8565 4226 8565 4252 8531 4277 8507
      4278 8416 4207 8413
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 242DEG 23KT 4238 8489

BORCHARDT

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>