Alert archive / Michigan / River Flood Warnings in 2018
River Flood Warning 37, NWS Grand Rapids, MI
NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this river flood warning at May 14, 2018, 11:38 AM EDT for Kalamazoo County, Michigan. It was in force for 4 days.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 14, 2018, 11:38 AM EDT (15:38 UTC)
- Expired
- May 18, 2018, 10:28 AM EDT
- In force
- 4 days
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Rapids, MI
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- Minor
County Kalamazoo County, MI
The radar
The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The river
Written for the forecast point Portage River near Vicksburg (VCKM4).
- Action stage
- 4.5 ft
- Minor stage
- 5 ft
- Moderate stage
- 7 ft
- Major stage
- 8 ft
This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests
Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 04097170, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.
The text
As transmitted.
948
WGUS43 KGRR 141538
FLWGRR
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1138 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018
...The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a flood
warning for the following rivers in Southwest Lower Michigan...
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Heavy rainfall occurred over the Portage River basin this past
weekend. The runoff from the one to three inch rain has produced
rises on the Portage River. Additional rainfall tonight into
early Tuesday could produce additional rises later this week.
The following forecast is based on observed and forecast 24 hour
precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Even 6 inches of fast-moving flood water can knock
you off your feet... and a depth of 2 feet will float your car.
Never try to walk... swim... or drive through such swift water. If
you come upon flood waters... stop... turn around and go another way.
This warning will be in effect until the river falls below its flood
stage.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC077-151737-
/O.NEW.KGRR.FL.W.0037.180514T1538Z-180518T0600Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180515T0600Z.180517T0600Z.UU/
1138 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a
* Flood Warning for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until late Thursday night.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to have a maximum value of 5.2 feet
after midnight tonight.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.2 feet
on Mar 9 1974.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$
MWS9 follow-up statements
370
WGUS83 KGRR 150308
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1108 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Sycamore Creek At Holt affecting Ingham County
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Additional showers and thunderstorms tonight will bring potential
another inch to the area. This will continue the rises on the river
tonight, and through much of this week before it begins to fall.
The following forecast is based on observed and forecast 24 hour
precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC065-160507-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180517T1600Z/
/HHTM4.1.ER.180513T0751Z.180516T0000Z.180516T1600Z.NO/
1108 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Sycamore Creek At Holt.
* until Thursday afternoon.
* at 6:00 PM Monday the stage was 8.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue rising to near 8.7 feet by
tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage
Wednesday early afternoon.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of low lying areas
adjacent to the river, in the Lansing Municipal Golf Course and
sections of East Mt. Hope Road.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 8.8 feet
on Apr 7 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4271 8451 4268 8449 4264 8445 4264 8451
4268 8455 4271 8455
$$
MIC077-160507-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T0000Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180515T1200Z.180518T0000Z.UU/
1108 PM EDT Mon May 14 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until Friday evening.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to have a maximum value of 5.3 feet
tomorrow morning.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$184
WGUS83 KGRR 151314
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
914 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Grand River At Jackson affecting Jackson County
Sycamore Creek At Holt affecting Ingham County
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Another round of heavy rain fell across the Grand and Kalamazoo
basins overnight. The runoff from this round of rain will result
in slightly higher crests and delay the time of crest for each
forecast point. It is likely that the rivers will remain above
flood stage longer at each point because of the additional rain.
Light precipitation is expected today...which will not create
new impacts for these river points. Dry conditions are then
forecast for the rest of the week...which will help allow the
runoff to complete. The following forecast is based on observed
and forecast 24 hour precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC075-161513-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0038.180515T1309Z-180522T0000Z/
/JACM4.1.ER.180515T0735Z.180518T0000Z.180521T1200Z.NR/
914 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Grand River At Jackson.
* from this morning to Monday evening.
* at 7:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 13.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by after midnight tonight and
continue to rise to near 14.5 feet by Thursday evening. The river
will fall below flood stage by Monday morning.
* Impact, at 15.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding of residences along
High Street, Lewis Street, and Losey Street. High water could
disrupt traffic and damage residences.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.1 feet
on Feb 21 2018.
&&
LAT...LON 4237 8434 4227 8437 4225 8431 4219 8435
4223 8445 4232 8447
$$
MIC065-161513-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180517T0600Z/
/HHTM4.1.ER.180513T0751Z.180513T2130Z.180516T0600Z.NO/
914 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Sycamore Creek At Holt.
* until late Wednesday night.
* at 6:30 AM Tuesday the stage was 8.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring will continue.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall below flood stage
after midnight tonight.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of low lying areas
adjacent to the river, in the Lansing Municipal Golf Course and
sections of East Mt. Hope Road.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 8.1 feet
on Aug 17 2016.
&&
LAT...LON 4271 8451 4268 8449 4264 8445 4264 8451
4268 8455 4271 8455
$$
MIC077-161513-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T1200Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180515T1800Z.180518T1200Z.UU/
914 AM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until Saturday morning.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to have a maximum value of 5.4 feet
this afternoon.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$
MWS704
WGUS83 KGRR 151608
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1208 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Another round of heavy rain fell across the Grand and Kalamazoo
basins overnight. The runoff from this round of rain will result
in slightly higher crests and delay the time of crest for each
forecast point. It is likely that the rivers will remain above
flood stage longer at each point because of the additional rain.
Light precipitation is expected today...which will not create
new impacts for these river points. Dry conditions are then
forecast for the rest of the week...which will help allow the
runoff to complete. The following forecast is based on observed
and forecast 24 hour precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC077-161808-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180520T0600Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180515T1800Z.180519T0600Z.UU/
1208 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until late Saturday night.
* at 8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring.
* Forecast, the river will continue rising to near 5.5 feet by this
afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday
morning.
* Impact, at 6.0 feet...Expect minor basement flooding of several
homes built adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$
MWS787
WGUS83 KGRR 160135
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
935 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018
...The Flood Warning has been cancelled and downgraded to a Flood
Advisory for the following river in Southwest Lower Michigan...
Sycamore Creek At Holt affecting Ingham County
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Grand River At Jackson affecting Jackson County
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Dry weather is expected to hold in over the area through the
remainder of the week and into Saturday. This will allow river
levels to stabilize and recede after the heavier rains the past few
days.
The following forecast is based on observed and forecast 24 hour
precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC075-170335-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180521T1800Z/
/JACM4.1.ER.180515T0735Z.180517T1800Z.180521T0600Z.NR/
935 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Grand River At Jackson.
* until Monday afternoon.
* at 8:30 PM Tuesday the stage was 13.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and continue
to rise to near 14.5 feet by Friday morning. the river will fall
below flood stage by early Monday morning.
* Impact, at 15.0 feet...Expect moderate flooding of residences along
High Street, Lewis Street, and Losey Street. High water would
disrupt traffic and damage residences.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 14.1 feet
on Feb 21 2018.
&&
LAT...LON 4237 8434 4227 8437 4225 8431 4219 8435
4223 8445 4232 8447
$$
MIC065-160205-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FL.W.0036.000000T0000Z-180516T0135Z/
/HHTM4.1.ER.180513T0751Z.180513T2130Z.180515T2200Z.NO/
935 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Sycamore Creek At Holt.
and has been downgraded to a Flood Advisory.
* at 6:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 8.0 feet.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall below flood stage by this
evening.
* Impact, at 8.0 feet...Expect minor flooding of low lying areas
adjacent to the river, in the Lansing Municipal Golf Course and
sections of East Mt. Hope Road.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 8.1 feet
on Aug 17 2016.
&&
LAT...LON 4271 8451 4268 8449 4264 8445 4264 8451
4268 8455 4271 8455
$$
MIC077-170335-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T0600Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180516T0600Z.180518T0600Z.UU/
935 PM EDT Tue May 15 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until late Friday night.
* at 8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue rising to near 5.5 feet by after
midnight tonight. The river will fall below flood stage early
Friday morning.
* Impact, at 6.0 feet...Expect minor basement flooding of several
homes built adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$295
WGUS83 KGRR 161419
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1019 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018
...The Flood Warning has been cancelled for the following river in
Southwest Lower Michigan...
Grand River At Jackson affecting Jackson County
...The flood warning continues for the following river in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Dry weather is expected to hold in over the area into Saturday. This
will allow river levels to crest and recede after the heavy rains
the past few days. The following forecast is based on observed and
forecast 24 hour precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC077-171618-
/O.EXT.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T0000Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180515T1200Z.180518T0000Z.UU/
1019 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until Friday evening.
* at 8:00 AM Wednesday the stage was estimated at 5.3 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall below flood stage by
tomorrow evening.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$
MIC075-161449-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FL.W.0038.000000T0000Z-180521T1800Z/
/JACM4.N.ER.180515T0735Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1019 AM EDT Wed May 16 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Grand River At Jackson.
* at 9:30 AM Wednesday the stage was 13.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 14.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river crested below flood stage at 13.2 feet. The
river will fall to 13.0 feet by tomorrow morning.
* Impact, at 13.0 feet...River is bankfull. River begins to flow into
low lying areas.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 13.5 feet
on Dec 4 2011.
&&
LAT...LON 4237 8434 4227 8437 4225 8431 4219 8435
4223 8445 4232 8447
$$
63613
WGUS83 KGRR 170132
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
932 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Dry weather can be expected through Friday with high pressure in
control of the weather. The next chance of rain will arrive on
Saturday, with a better chance expected on Sunday.
The following forecast is based on observed and forecast 24 hour
precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC077-180331-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T0000Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180515T1200Z.180518T0000Z.UU/
932 PM EDT Wed May 16 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until Friday evening.
* at 8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 5.4 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Minor Flooding is occurring and Minor Flooding is forecast.
* Forecast, the river will continue to fall below flood stage by
tomorrow evening.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$458
WGUS83 KGRR 171421
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1021 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Dry weather is expected to continue into Saturday. This will allow
river levels to recede. The following forecast is based on
observed and forecast 24 hour precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message... Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC077-181621-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T0000Z/
/VCKM4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.180517T1800Z.180518T0000Z.UU/
1021 AM EDT Thu May 17 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until Friday evening.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to drop to 5.0 feet this
afternoon.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$
63123
WGUS83 KGRR 180149
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
949 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018
...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in Southwest
Lower Michigan...
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Dry weather will continue through Friday, before rain chances begin
to increase slightly on Saturday. Better chances for rain will come
on Sunday and Monday. We are not expecting significant amounts of
rain, with less than an inch of rain expected through Monday for
most locations.
The following forecast is based on observed and forecast 24 hour
precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC077-190000-
/O.CON.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T0000Z/
/VCKM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
949 PM EDT Thu May 17 2018
The Flood Warning continues for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* until Friday evening.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is forecast below flood stage with a maximum
value of 4.9 feet after midnight tonight.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.4 feet
on Mar 31 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$580
WGUS83 KGRR 181428
FLSGRR
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1028 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018
...The Flood Warning has been cancelled for the following river in
Southwest Lower Michigan...
Portage River Near Vicksburg affecting Kalamazoo County
.Dry weather will continue through today, before rain chances begin
to increase slightly on Saturday. Better chances for rain will come
on Sunday and Monday. We are not expecting significant amounts of
rain, with less than an inch of rain expected through Monday for
most locations. The following forecast is based on observed and
forecast 24 hour precipitation.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Safety message...Motorists should not attempt to drive around
barricades or drive cars through flooded areas.
Stay tuned to further developments by listening to your local
radio... television... or NOAA Weather Radio station for further
information.
Additional weather and river information can be found on our homepage
at www.weather.gov/grr
&&
MIC077-181458-
/O.CAN.KGRR.FL.W.0037.000000T0000Z-180519T0000Z/
/VCKM4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1028 AM EDT Fri May 18 2018
The Flood Warning is cancelled for
the Portage River Near Vicksburg.
* at 8 AM Friday the stage was estimated at 4.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 5.0 feet.
* Forecast, the river is forecast to fall to 4.8 feet this
afternoon.
* Impact, at 5.0 feet...Expect overflows into wooded areas and
farmland adjacent to the river.
* Flood history, this crest compares to a previous crest of 5.1 feet
on Mar 2 2017.
&&
LAT...LON 4208 8552 4211 8553 4215 8548 4216 8544
4211 8544 4208 8547
$$
63What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at May 14, 7:53 AM EDT, 3 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 14, 7:53 AM EDT, 3 hours 45 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 753 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 LATEST UPDATE... Aviation .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 An active period will continue across Southern Lower Michigan with rounds of showers and storms both today and tonight. Locally heavy rain may lead to flooding south of Interstate 96, where another 1 to 3 inches of rain is possible Much less in the way of rainfall is expected across Central Lower Michigan. We will dry out Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday as high pressure builds into the region from the north. High temperatures the next several days will be above normal in the 70s. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 Main forecast concern in the short term revolves around the threat for flooding. Radar rainfall estimates and spotter reports indicate 1.5 to as much as 3.25 inches of rain have fallen across our southern two rows of counties, or south of Interstate 96. Additional rounds of showers and storms are expected this morning and again tonight. Another 1 to 3 inches of rain is certainly possible in areas that have already received heavy rain, so we have issued a Flood Watch for Allegan, Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun and Jackson Counties. Considered issued for the I-96 row of counties, but less confidence exists there in terms of additional heavy rain. PWAT values are on the order of 1.5 inches with a solid push of moisture transport at 850mb's this morning and again this evening. Training of cells is expected as the clusters of storms work off to the east north of the warm front. Again, a round of showers and storms are expected this morning and again this evening into the overnight. As for severe weather chances this morning's round will feature heavy rain and lightning. Cannot rule out some wind in excess of 40 mph as a stronger mid level jet works in on the backside of the convection. Instability is not that strong however and the convection will be elevated. Tonight's convection has a better chance at becoming locally severe, but the threat is still not high. Instability increases to around 1500 j/kg in the far south tonight. Cannot rule out some marginally severe hail and wind tonight as the LLJ impinges on the warm front. Again, heavy rain will be the main threat. We dry out Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday as high pressure builds in from the north. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 The long term will start off with surface high pressure over the Great Lakes. A weak upper trough moving across the state likely won't have enough energy to produce any precipitation. The first decent chance of precipitation will come when a cold front approaches from the northwest Saturday. The threat of showers will linger through Sunday. Both the gfs and ecmwf show a wave of low pressure developing on the frontal boundary over Illinois and then moving across the cwa. The difference is the ecmwf is a little quicker than the gfs. Highs will remain a bit above normal through the period with readings in the 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 753 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 Rain and embedded thunderstorms will come to an end this morning. Lower ceilings and visibilities will gradually improve through the course of the morning with VFR weather expected after about 18z. Another round of showers and storms are expected tonight, moving in from the southwest after 00z. MVFR and lower conditions are likely tonight as the storms move through. MVFR weather will likely persist late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 330 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 Overall, winds will be fairly light through Tuesday morning outside of thunderstorms. Waves will be 2 feet or less through that time frame. An increasing northerly flow on Tuesday will boost wave heights a bit, but we will likely stay below advisory thresholds. There may be a period of time Tuesday afternoon however when we see wave heights increase into the 2 to 4 foot range as winds increase to around 20 knots. High pressure is forecast to build in then for Tuesday night into Wednesday with lower winds and waves. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 327 PM EDT Sun May 13 2018 Heavy rainfall of one to three inches fell in an east-west band across southern Lower Michigan since Friday morning. Runoff from this rain has produced strong rises on many of the area rivers... with Sycamore Creek at Holt rising above flood stage this morning. Do not expect any of the other area rivers to rise above flood stage as a result of the current rainfall/runoff event. Two additional episodes of rain are expected over the next 48 hours: tonight into Monday morning...and Monday night into Tuesday. Latest forecasts show the heaviest rain remaining south of Grand Rapids tonight...affecting mainly the Kalamazoo Basin. The Monday Night/Tuesday event is tracking farther north over the Grand River Basin. The widespread nature of the recent rainfall event has produced saturated soils across a large portion of southern Michigan...and the additional rainfall would likely produce a new round of rises in area rivers. Some locations could rise above flood stage especially along the Grand and its southern tributaries. People with interests along area streams...creeks...and rivers... should continue to monitor the weather situation. Thanks to NCRFC for coordination on the Sycamore at Holt this morning. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MIZ064>067-071>074. LM...None. && SYNOPSIS...Duke SHORT TERM...Duke LONG TERM...04 AVIATION...Duke HYDROLOGY...MWS MARINE...Duke
Hazardous weather outlook, May 14, 5:17 AM EDT, 6 hours 21 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 517 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-150930- Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon- Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton- Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson- 517 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Periods of showers and storms are expected from this morning through tonight. Heavy rain may lead to flooding in areas south of Interstate 96. Storms today and tonight have the potential to become severe with hail to around 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to near 60 mph. Areas of fog may reduce visibilities to around one quarter of a mile through mid morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms will remain a possibility Tuesday morning. Some river flooding and ponding of water in low lying areas may persist through at least mid week in areas that see the heaviest rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ844>849-150930- St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI- Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI- Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI- 517 AM EDT Mon May 14 2018 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Thunderstorms will be possible south of Muskegon today and tonight. Some of the storms will pose a hazard to mariners with large hail and winds in excess of 35 knots. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A few storms will be possible Tuesday morning south of Holland. Hail, gusty winds and lightning will remain threats to mariners. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. DUKE
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 14, 6:24 AM EDT, 5 hours 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 624 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 MIZ073-074-141130- Calhoun MI-Jackson MI- 624 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY... At 624 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Albion to near Union City. Movement was east at 45 mph. Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph with downed tree limbs will be possible with these storms. Locations impacted include... Jackson... Albion... Marshall... Vandercook Lake... Homer... Union City... Brooklyn... Grass Lake... Burlington... Leoni... Spring Arbor... Napoleon... Sandstone... Norvell... Marengo... Pulaski... Concord... Athens... Horton... Parma... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle. && LAT...LON 4207 8529 4233 8493 4234 8413 4207 8413 TIME...MOT...LOC 1024Z 269DEG 41KT 4226 8478 4206 8512 DUKE
Local storm report, May 14, 7:34 AM EDT, 4 hours 4 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
734 AM EDT MON MAY 14 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0458 AM TSTM WND GST SOUTH HAVEN GLERL 42.40N 86.29W
05/14/2018 M43 MPH LMZ844 MI MESONET
MESONET STATION SVNM4, SOUTH HAVEN GLERL.
&&
MWSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14, 3:39 AM EDT | Flood Watch | GRR | Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, Jackson and 2 more | 28 hr |
| May 14, 4:25 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | GRR | 66 min | |
| May 14, 4:39 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Allegan, Van Buren | 66 min |
| May 14, 5:35 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Kalamazoo | 55 min |
| May 14, 6:24 AM EDT | Special Weather Statement | GRR | Calhoun, Jackson | 66 min |
| May 14, 9:59 AM EDT | Areal Flood Warning | GRR | Kalamazoo, Van Buren | 4 hr |
Nearby
River Flood Warnings in Michigan, 2018Every river flood warning in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.