Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
232 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued across the
region this afternoon. Temperatures ranged from the middle
60s across the far north to the lower to middle 80s across
east-central Wisconsin.

For the remainder of the afternoon into this evening, low
pressure along a cold front is expected to move across the
area. Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected,
especially across central and east-central Wisconsin. Confidence
is low that we would see severe storms due to the low 0-6 km
shear values, however clearing is taking place across western
Wisconsin for additional storms to form along the cold front.
May concern would be for damaging winds and large hail. Low
clouds will continue overnight with some patchy fog and drizzle
across the north.

Mostly cloudy skies will start the day on Thursday, with a
gradual decrease in the clouds during the afternoon. It will
be cool with highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 232 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Persistent trof over western Great Lakes will slowly move away
from Wisconsin as upper pattern transitions to low amplitude/
zonal flow. A couple shortwave trofs are forecast to move across
the region during the first part of the long term period. It
appears the upper flow will go NW as stronger shortwave digs into
the region mid-week.

This pattern will slow the return to warmer/more humid weather
until later next week. Until then, temps will be a few degrees
either side of normal, with the coolest temps early in the long-
term period.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

A cold front will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to
the region this afternoon into early this evening. Some of
the stronger thunderstorms could produce gusty winds, hail
and heavy rainfall. Behind the cold front, poor flying conditions
are expected to develop across the region from northwest to
southeast as the night progresses. Expecting IFR CIGS or lower
along with patchy fog and drizzle. The low clouds should reach
KMTW last. Some gusty northerly winds can be expected on Thursday.
Conditions (CIGS) will gradually improve Thursday morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......JKL
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
215 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-021915-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
215 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Rest of the Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will continue for the rest of the
afternoon into this evening. A few storms could become strong or
severe with damaging winds and large hail across central into
east-central Wisconsin. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible
with the stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a chance for thunderstorms at times from late Saturday
night into early next week. It is too early to determine their
severe weather potential.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report wind gusts over 40 mph, hail a
half inch or greater and rainfall amounts over an inch.

LMZ521-522-541>543-021915-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
215 PM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Rest of the Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners for the
rest of the afternoon into this evening. Some of the stronger
storms could produce strong gusty winds, hail and dangerous cloud
to water lightning strikes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are possible again at times from late Saturday
night into early next week. Any storms that develop would pose a
hazard to mariners.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
429 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2018

WIZ037-038-048>050-012230-
Calumet WI-Waupaca WI-Outagamie WI-Winnebago WI-Manitowoc WI-
429 PM CDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 429 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Fremont to near Menasha to Fond Du Lac.
Movement was east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton, Oshkosh, Menasha, Kaukauna, Little Chute, Kimberly,
Chilton, Brillion, St. Nazianz and Fremont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If on or near Lake Winnebago, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4416 8862 4429 8907 4438 8850 4429 8819
      4424 8819 4424 8802 4422 8795 4389 8786
      4389 8816 4394 8816 4394 8840 4389 8840
      4389 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 261DEG 22KT 4428 8889 4417 8853 4379 8842

RDM