Special Weather Statement, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
247 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

The main forecast challenge remains on chances for showers and
thunderstorms, mainly across central/east-central WI for tonight
and Saturday. A secondary concern will be the extent of fog, both
over land and the nearshore waters of Lake MI.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed a cold front that stretched
from southeast Nebraska northeast to east-central WI. The radar
mosaic indicated clusters of showers/thunderstorms in the
vicinity of this front with more stratiform-type rain north of the
front. The air mass over the southern half of WI remains unstable
with shear on the increase. This is where a slight chance for
severe thunderstorms to be located late this afternoon into this
evening.

Ongoing convection along and south of the cold front will continue
into the evening hours, then tend to focus more over southern WI
overnight as the frontal boundary settles over that part of the
state by 12Z Saturday. Still cannot rule out a few stronger storms
over our southern tier of counties this evening until instability
weakens after sunset. Gusty winds and torrential downpours would
be the most likely threat from these storms. Precipitation chances
will be kept in the forecast overnight over central/east-central
WI with the cold front just off to our south. Otherwise, northern
WI should see skies become partly cloudy with some patchy fog to
develop late due to lingering low-level moisture and nearly calm
winds. Furthermore, the high dew points over Lake MI may allow
some fog to become dense at times. Min temperatures to range from
around 60 degrees north-central WI, upper 60s for east-central WI.

The cold front is forecast to become quasi-stationary over
southern WI on Saturday, while weak high pressure builds east from
the Upper MS Valley. Northern WI should see mostly sunny skies and
less humidity. Central/east-central WI will see more clouds, along
with a small chance of showers/thunderstorms over our southernmost
counties due to the proximity to the stalled boundary and better
instability. It will also remain humid across the southern
sections of the forecast area as the drier air cannot compete with
the moisture pooling along the boundary. Max temperatures on
Saturday to range from around 80 degrees near Lake MI, lower to
middle 80s central/east-central WI, middle to upper 80s north.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 247 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

The medium range models continue to indicate the heat and humidity
associated with the sub-tropical ridge will get suppressed to the
south over this period. Meanwhile, the northern stream is expected
to turn to the northwest over the western Great Lakes early next
week.  When this occurs, should see a more seasonable airmass arrive
for a period.  Otherwise, forecast concerns mainly revolve around
thunderstorm and severe weather chances with a front arriving late
Sunday into Monday.

Saturday night through Monday...The weak cold front, to go along
with the moisture and instability axis, will finally get pushed to
the south at the start of Saturday evening.  With the arrival of
weak high pressure, should see skies become mostly clear for a
period from Saturday evening through Sunday morning.  Then should
see clouds build with the heat of the day on Sunday as low level
winds shift to the southwest and draw in increasing moisture back
into northern Wisconsin.  This moisture return will occur ahead of a
cold front, which is progged to reach western Lake Superior at 00z
Mon before sliding across the area late Sunday night into Monday
morning.  Models show decent deep-layer shear and moisture ahead of
the front, but instability will be lacking as the front comes
through during the late night and morning hours.  Still though, with
good convergence, think could see scattered showers and isolated
storms accompany the front. Skies should clear relatively quickly
behind the front, with a less humid airmass arriving.

Rest of the forecast...High pressure will bring mostly clear
seasonable conditions to the region for Tuesday and Wednesday. The
next chance of rain appears to arrive on Thursday into Friday when
shortwave energy approaches from the west.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

Rather difficult forecast due to sporadic showers/thunderstorms
moving across the region this afternoon into tonight. Expect the
best likelihood of seeing precipitation to be generally south of a
line from MFI-MTW which would be along/just ahead of a cold front
that is forecast to gradually shift into southern Wisconsin by
daybreak. A few of these storms could be on the stronger side with
small hail, gusty winds and torrential downpours. Mainly VFR
conditions to dominate, however cigs/vsbys will lower to MVFR
under any thunderstorm activity. Northern Wisconsin to only see
some light rain this afternoon, then the possibility of fog
development later tonight could send cigs/vsbys down into the IFR
range.

Some improvement expected on Saturday as the fog burns off across
the north and only a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms for
central/east-central Wisconsin.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....AK
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......AK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
306 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-142015-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
306 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
continue through late tonight. There is a slight risk of severe
weather south of a Wisconsin Rapids to Manitowoc line. The
strongest storms could producing damaging winds, small hail and
localized flooding, especially late this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Thunderstorms are possible at times on Saturday, mainly south of
a Marshfield to Green Bay line. Widespread severe weather is not
expected. However, the strongest storms could produce brief gusty
winds, small hail and locally heavy rain.

There is a chance of thunderstorms again on Sunday afternoon into
Monday morning. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening
over parts of central and east-central Wisconsin.

LMZ521-522-541>543-142015-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
306 PM CDT Fri Jul 13 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected. Some of the storms could
produce gusty winds and small hail that would pose a significant
hazard to mariners.

Patchy dense fog will impact the Lake Michigan nearshore waters
through early Saturday morning, and restrict visibilities for
boaters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

There are chances for storms at times from Saturday through
Monday. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds and small
hail that would pose a significant hazard to mariners.

AK/MPC

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1053 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

WIZ038-045-048-049-131645-
Calumet WI-Winnebago WI-Outagamie WI-Waushara WI-
1053 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN FOX VALLEY...

At 1051 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of
thunderstorms over Berlin, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton, Oshkosh, Menasha, Berlin, Chilton, Redgranite, St Anna,
Lake Poygan, High Cliff State Park and Central Lake Winnebago.

People at Ford Festival Park, and Sunnyview Expo Center should
consider seeking safe shelter.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4390 8889 4398 8889 4398 8916 4405 8921
      4435 8845 4390 8807 4389 8816 4394 8816
      4394 8840 4389 8840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 239DEG 33KT 4396 8896

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1133 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

WIZ038>040-049-050-131730-
Calumet WI-Kewaunee WI-Outagamie WI-Manitowoc WI-Brown WI-
1133 AM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

At 1132 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of
thunderstorms near High Cliff State Park, or 12 miles southeast of
Appleton, moving east at 45 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton, Manitowoc, Kewaunee, Kaukauna, Little Chute, Kimberly,
Chilton, Brillion, Denmark and Cleveland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4434 8846 4451 8742 4432 8748 4418 8745
      4407 8759 4390 8769 4389 8811
TIME...MOT...LOC 1632Z 252DEG 40KT 4412 8824

MPC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

WIZ031-037>039-132115-
Waupaca WI-Shawano WI-Outagamie WI-Brown WI-
317 PM CDT FRI JUL 13 2018

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

At 316 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New London, or 16 miles northwest of Appleton, moving northeast at
30 mph.

Pea size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
New London, Black Creek, Oneida, Howard, Greenville, Seymour,
Hortonville, Pittsfield, Shiocton and Navarino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4445 8887 4468 8839 4457 8808 4424 8859
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 231DEG 23KT 4442 8866

AK