Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
651 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Flood and severe weather potential are the main
concerns tonight and early Monday.

A cold front will move very slowly across the area tonight and
early Monday. Very warm and humid air ahead of the front will
provide showers and storms with the potential for producing very
heavy rains, especially given the slow movement. We added some
counties to the flash flood watch in northern counties. The main
severe storm threat should be strong winds, as temperatures aloft
are not cold for large hail. A brief tornado is not out of the
question along the front though is not expected.

There are model differences about how quickly the front and
associated showers and storms exit the area tomorrow. That will
have an effect on temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Zonal pattern at 500mb will dominate the weather pattern at the
beginning of the period. A northwest flow pattern is expected by
the weekend, allowing for low humidity and seasonable temperatures
as Canadian high pressure moves across the area. Temperatures on
some nights could fall into the 40s at our typical cold spots
across the north later this week.

The cold front will gradually push south of the area Monday
night. However, additional complexes of showers and thunderstorms
are expected which may clip our southern counties Monday night
into Tuesday before the front pushes far enough south of the
area. Canadian high pressure system should dominate the weather
pattern into Friday morning. The next chance of showers and storms
are possible next Friday into the weekend, although confidence
is low in the timing of the rain chances. Some adjustments were
made to max temperatures to account for our warmer biased sites.
Did lower minimum temperatures on a few nights later in the week
across the north to account for our typical cold spots.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

Strong and locally severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and
torrential rain were ongoing over north central and far northeast
WI early this evening. These will continue to sag southeast
across the region this evening and overnight, with the
precipitation eventually shifting south of the region on Monday.
The combination of steady rains and the arrival of a cold front
will cause ceilings to lower to MVFR/local IFR overnight into
early Monday, but some improvement should occur by midday Monday.

LLWS will occur this evening, then taper off overnight. Southwest
winds will shift north to northeast after the cold front passes.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for WIZ005-010>013-
018-019-021-030-073.
&&

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......Kieckbusch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
312 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-182015-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
312 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are expected across the area later this afternoon
and tonight. A few storms could become severe, especially north
of Highway 10. Damaging winds are the main severe weather threat.

A flash flood watch is in effect for much of central and northern
Wisconsin, where recent heavy rains have left the ground nearly
saturated and rivers and stream levels high.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

Scattered thunderstorms are forecast for Monday morning. A few
strong storms with gusty winds and heavy rain are possible early.

There is a chance of thunderstorms on Friday into next weekend.
It is too early to determine if any of these storms would become
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-182015-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
312 PM CDT Sun Jun 17 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms will pose a hazard to boaters on the lake
and bay at times tonight. Dense fog is also possible at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Sunday

There is a chance of thunderstorms into Monday, and again late in
the week.

RDM/Eckberg

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
809 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     DANCY                   44.68N 89.69W
06/17/2018  E65 MPH          PORTAGE            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
810 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0755 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOSINEE                 44.78N 89.69W
06/17/2018  M55 MPH          MARATHON           WI   AWOS

&&

BERSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
844 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     HALDER                  44.79N 89.86W
06/17/2018                   MARATHON           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BERSCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
851 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018

WIZ022-073-074-180245-
Southern Oconto County WI-Southern Marinette County WI-Door WI-
851 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN MARINETTE...DOOR AND
CENTRAL OCONTO COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 851 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Newport State Park to near Menominee to
near Oconto. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Newport State Park around 900 PM CDT.
  Egg Harbor around 925 PM CDT.
  Ephraim around 930 PM CDT.
  Jacksonport around 940 PM CDT.
  Sturgeon Bay around 945 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Peninsula Center,
Fish Creek, Cullen, Peninsula State Park, Valmy, County Line,
Harmony, Ellison Bay, Peshtigo and Whitefish Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4510 8695 4501 8710 4466 8734 4480 8771
      4494 8767 4493 8772 4483 8780 4492 8803
      4516 8772 4512 8754 4507 8752 4487 8765
      4493 8746 4507 8736 4521 8742 4522 8721
      4541 8700 4543 8681 4542 8681
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 290DEG 25KT 4528 8704 4519 8758 4495 8789

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
902 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     N ARGONNE               45.66N 88.88W
06/17/2018                   FOREST             WI   PUBLIC

            STORMS DESTROYED BIRD PENS JUST NORTH OF ARGONNE. TIME
            ESTIMATED. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

KLB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
905 PM CDT SUN JUN 17 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW BOWLER            44.84N 88.98W
06/17/2018                   SHAWANO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FEW TREES DOWN. COUNTY D AND J.

0848 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TIGERTON                44.73N 89.05W
06/17/2018                   SHAWANO            WI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A FEW TREES DOWN

&&

BERSCH