Small Craft Advisory 66, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
247 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Wednesday
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Potential for heavy rain over the next 24 hours remains the
primary concern across northeast WI. A secondary concern is the
potential for stronger storms late this afternoon/early evening
over a small part of east-central WI that remains in the warm
sector. Another thunderstorm chance to arrive Wednesday afternoon
ahead of a cold front.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over
east-central KS with a quasi-stationary front stretched northeast
through east-central WI. To the south and east of this frontal
boundary, Indian summer was located with temperatures in the 80s
and dew points in the 60s. To the north and west of the front,
temperatures were more early winter-like with 30s and 40s. The
radar mosaic picked up on scattered thunderstorms in the warm
sector from MO into WI and MI. Some of these storms had become
strong to isolated severe.

These strong to severe storms are expected to continue into this
evening and could impact east-central WI for a short time as
SBCAPES have surpassed 1K J/KG with 0-6km bulk shear at -----
knots. Otherwise, the quasi-stationary boundary may sag a bit
south tonight, but remain a main player on precipitation
trends/temperatures across northeast WI. Another feature to watch
will be the northeast movement of an area of low pressure that is
forecast to reach the Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. The combination of
additional mid-level shortwave energy, abundant gulf moisture and
a diffluent flow aloft will bring another round of moderate to
locally heavy rain to the forecast area. Do not plan on making any
changes to the Flood Watch as models continue to show higher rain
amounts over central/northern WI. Min temperatures to range from
the lower to middle 40s far north-central WI, to the lower 60s
south.

The surface low is progged to track toward central WI and deepen
in the process as the main upper trough lifts northeast into the
Upper Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. As all of this occurs, a
cold front is forecast to sweep east, reaching central WI by 00Z
Thursday. Anticipate yet another round of showers (with some
thunderstorms) to take place ahead of the cold front. Locally
heavy rainfall is again possible which would aggravate any
localized flooding, as well as raise some river levels toward/
above flood stage. Max temperatures to range from the lower 50s
over Vilas County, to around 70 degrees east-central WI (away from
Lake MI).

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

Rain showers will come to an end from west to east Wednesday
night as a cold front tracks through the western Great Lakes
region. However some wrap around showers will likely remain across
north-central Wisconsin through Thursday morning with some snow
flakes possibly mixing in late Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning across the far north. Much cooler air will filter in
behind the cold front, with the largest temperature swings
expected across central and east-central Wisconsin where the warm
front lifted far enough north for warm, moist air to be felt
during the last few days. Very breezy westerly winds will occur
behind the cold front late Wednesday night into Thursday, with
wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected.

High pressure will then build in across the western Great Lakes
behind the departing low, which will keep the weather dry across
most of the area through the early part of the weekend. The
exception will be across far north-central Wisconsin where some
lake effect showers may occur at times.

Highs will fall to well below normal levels for this time of year
starting on Thursday, and will last through early next week. These
cold temperatures will bring the chance for frost and freezing
temperatures across the Fox Valley and lakeshore Thursday night
and Friday night where these headlines are still being issued.

Several low pressure systems will then bring several chances for
light showers to the area for the second half of the weekend and
continuing through the early part of next week. However these
systems will bring much less rain to the area than the current
system, which should help to prevent any rivers from being
further agitated by heavy rainfall. Given the cool air in place
with these lows, some snowfall could accompany the showers at
times, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours across
north-central and central Wisconsin. Any snowfall accumulation
that occurs would be fairly light.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

A quasi-stationary front will continue to separate low clouds and
fog from more summer-like cumulus field with no fog. For the RHI,
AUW and CWA TAF sites, expect mainly IFR conditions to prevail
over the next 24 hours with periods of rain showers. For the ATW,
GRB and MTW TAF sites, VFR conditions are expected for the rest of
this afternoon, before cigs/vsbys gradually drop into the IFR
category by mid-evening. Scattered thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon over eastern WI where instability is stronger.
Thunderstorms are also possible on Wednesday over all of northeast
WI as a cold front pushes into the region. A low-level jet will
develop tonight at each TAF site, resulting in LLWS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for WIZ005-010>013-018>021-
030-031-035-036.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kallas
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......Kallas

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
300 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-102000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
300 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms over central and east-central
Wisconsin. Some of these storms could be strong to severe with
damaging winds and large hail being the main threats.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible mainly across north-central
and central Wisconsin tonight. This could lead to urban and small
stream flooding. A Flood Watch remains in effect for north-
central and central Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

The chance of thunderstorms will continue Wednesday. Isolated
storms could produce damaging winds on Wednesday afternoon,
particularly across parts of central and eastern Wisconsin.

Locally heavy rainfall is also possible which could lead to
additional urban and small stream flooding, particularly across
north-central and central Wisconsin where a Flood Watch is in
effect through early Wednesday evening. A few rivers are forecast
to surpass bankfull sometime during the latter part of the week.

Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the lower to middle 30s
over the Fox Valley and lakeshore areas on Thursday and Friday
nights. Temperatures this cold may result in a frost or freeze.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight. Spotters are requested
to report rainfall amounts over an inch tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-102000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
300 PM CDT Tue Oct 9 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms through tonight. Any storms
will pose a hazard for boaters on the lake and bay.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

The chance of thunderstorms will continue through early Wednesday
evening, and could pose a hazard to boaters.

Persistent and increasing southerly winds or high waves will
create hazardous conditions Wednesday ahead of a slow moving cold
front. Behind the departing system, gusty west to northwest winds
will create hazardous conditions for small craft Wednesday night
into Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect Wednesday and
Wednesday evening for the Lake Michigan nearshore areas.

Kallas/Kurimski

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