Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Green Bay, WI

238 
WHUS73 KGRB 030222
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
922 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

LMZ521-522-031030-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0063.181003T1000Z-181004T1700Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
922 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON CDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South increasing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. 
  Winds will increase to 15 to 25 knots on Wednesday then become 
  northwest with a few gale force gusts to 35 knots mainly near 
  Deaths Door Wednesday night. Winds will begin decreasing late 
  Thursday morning. 

* WAVES...1 to 3 feet tonight building to 3 to 5 feet Wednesday 
  morning. Waves will begin subsiding late Thursday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ541>543-031030-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0063.181003T1000Z-181004T1700Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
922 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO
NOON CDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South increasing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. 
  Winds will increase on Wednesday to 20 to 30 knots with a few 
  gale force gusts to 35 knots. On Wednesday night, winds will 
  veer northwest to 25 to 30 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Winds 
  will begin decreasing late Thursday morning. 

* WAVES...2 feet or less tonight building to 2 to 4 feet after 
  midnight. Waves will build to 6 to 10 feet on Wednesday and 
  subside to 4 to 7 feet Wednesday night. Waves will continue to 
  subside into Thursday afternoon. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

803 
WHUS73 KGRB 030943
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
443 AM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-031745-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0063.181003T1000Z-181003T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KGRB.GL.W.0011.181003T1700Z-181004T1200Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
443 AM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has issued a Gale
Warning, which is in effect from noon today to 7 AM CDT Thursday.

* WINDS...South winds will increase to 30 knots today. Gale force
  gusts around 35 knots are likely in the afternoon. Winds will
  shift west and increase to 40 knot gales during the late
  evening, then veer northwest late tonight.

* WAVES...Waves will build to 4 to 6 feet on the bay, and to 6 to
  10 feet on the lake.

* Winds and waves will diminish on Thursday. A Small Craft
  Advisory will likely be needed for at least the morning, while
  that occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are 
expected. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires 
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly recommended
that mariners without the proper experience seek safe harbor 
prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Skowronski

563 
WHUS73 KGRB 031456
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
956 AM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-032300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0063.000000T0000Z-181003T1700Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0011.181003T1700Z-181004T1200Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
956 AM CDT Wed Oct 3 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY...

* WINDS...South winds will increase to 30 knots today. Gale 
  force gusts around 35 knots are likely in the afternoon. Winds 
  will shift west and increase to 40 knot gales during the late 
  evening, then veer northwest late tonight. 

* WAVES...Waves will build to 4 to 6 feet on the bay, and to 6 
  to 10 feet on the lake. 

* Winds and waves will diminish on Thursday. A Small Craft 
  Advisory will likely be needed for at least the morning, while 
  that occurs. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected. Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels. It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1252 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

An abnormally wet period for October.

A highly amplified upper pattern is expected to dominate North
America throughout the period. The dominant feature will be
strong ridging near 150W, where an intense positive height anomaly
will exist near/north of Alaska for much of the period, before
reforming south over the Gulf of Alaska next week. That will lock
a broad trough in over much of central and eastern Canada, while
ridging extends from TX to the Mid-Atlantic States. The westerlies
flowing through the pattern will undergo some splitting at times
but remain very energetic. West to southwest flow across the
forecast area and high upper heights just to the south will keep
the primary frontal boundary oscillating across the area,
resulting in variations in temperatures from a little below normal
at times to considerably above normal at others. A moisture rich
air mass will remain south of the front, and when combined with
abundant forcing in the frontal zone near the region will result
in much above normal precipitation.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

The frontal wave that brought a widespread significant rainfall to
the area yesterday (from around 0.25 inches in the far north to
nearly 2 inches in the far south) will sag into central Illinois
today. Areas of drizzle are likely early today as moist cyclonic
flow persists at low levels. The lingering light precipitation
will end by mid-morning as a weak low-level ridge begins to build
into the area, but subsidence with the ridge looks insufficient to
provide much if any clearing. Given the clouds, temperatures
aren't likely to change too much during the day.

A strong shortwave digging south across British Columbia early this
morning will swing east tonight, inducing cyclogenesis over the
Plains. A plume of modest mid-level lapse rates (6-7K/km) will
shift east into the area tonight as a developing LLJ becomes
directed into the area after midnight. That will likely result in
elevated convection developing across central Wisconsin by late
evening, then expanding across the area during the night. The
storms could produce some small hail and heavy rains, but forecast
soundings suggest there will not be sufficient buoyancy for
severe hail.

The Plains cyclone will deepen considerably as it tracks toward
south-central Ontario on Wednesday. The track of the cyclone and
southwest low and middle level flow should allow the warm front to
shift north of the area by mid-day. That will allow a warm and
very moist air mass to overspread the area prior to the arrival of
the cold front. Shear profiles will be very supportive of severe
storms with 40-60 kts of 0-6km shear and large, looped hodographs.
As is often the case with autumn systems, the main uncertainty
concerning the severe potential will be buoyancy. Widespread cloud
cover will probably persist across the region, and there may be
sufficient forcing for clusters of storms to continue to fire in
the warm sector. The severe potential will likely come down to how
much destabilization can occur despite these factors, and that
may not become apparent until mid to late morning Wednesday.

Diurnal temperature changes today and tonight will be relatively
small given the widespread clouds. Highs Wednesday are likely to
occur late in the day as warmer air advects in from the southwest.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

An active pattern shaping up into the middle of next week
as several low pressure systems will bring rounds of rain
and possibly thunderstorms to the region. Some of the latest
model runs tonight would suggest the additional rainfall over
the next week could put many locations in the top 10 or 15
wettest Octobers on record, if not one of the wettest if
everything falls into place.

Zonal flow at 500mb will gradually transition to a southwest
flow by the weekend and continue through much of next week.
For the most part, the region will be sitting in the cool sector
until early next week until a stronger system tries to bring a
warm front through the area.

For Wednesday night, strong or severe storms are possible during
the evening hours. Bufkit soundings were showing around 50 knots
(GFS) about two to three thousand feet off the surface. The WRF
model was even strong with 50 to 65 knots. These storms should be
able to tap those strong winds just off the surface in a few
spots which could produce some wind damage. Dry conditions are
expected later Wednesday night and Thursday as high pressure
slides across the area. The next round of rain arrives Thursday
night and continues into Friday. The risk of thunder appears very
low with the main warm front well south of the area. A wave of low
pressure is expected to move across east-central Wisconsin Friday
night, bringing additional rain to much of the area along with
isolated thunderstorms across east-central Wisconsin. There may
be a lull or break in the rain later Saturday into Saturday
evening before the next round of rain arrives later Saturday night
into Sunday. Rain and possibly a few storms continue during the
day Sunday. There may be a break or lull in the rain Sunday night,
but next system following on its heels for Monday. After Monday,
the ECMWF tries to bring the warm front northward in Wisconsin.
Will have to wait and see on this scenario. No matter where the
front ends up, additional heavy rain is possible Monday night into
next Tuesday. Stay tuned! Daytime temps at or below normal
through the weekend due to clouds or rain. Uncertainty rises in
the daytime temperatures early next week depending on where the
front sets up or when it does rain.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

Plenty of aviation issues during the TAF valid period. Not looking
promising for VFR pilots. Ceilings across the area were either
IFR or just a little above it at 17Z and drizzle was reducing the
visibility to just 1-3SM in parts of east-central Wisconsin.
Expect some improvement but anything better than isolated VFR, due
to some breaks in the clouds, appears unlikely. Conditions should
be mainly MVFR overnight but IFR in showers and thunderstorms is
possible after about 06Z. Thunder chances increase during the
night and LLWS also becomes an issue late tonight through
Wednesday morning.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......Eckberg
AVIATION.......MG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
301 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-032015-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
301 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. The storms are not expected
to be severe, but could produce heavy rains and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible at times Wednesday into Wednesday
evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms with hail and damaging
winds are possible, especially Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
evening. Heavy rain is also possible.

Periods of rain are expected at times into the middle next week
as a series of low pressure systems move across the region. The
rain could be heavy at times and lead to some urban and small
stream flooding. A few of the larger rivers could approach
bankfullsometime next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected to be necessary tonight, but
may be needed Wednesday afternoon and evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-032015-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
301 PM CDT Tue Oct 2 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Increasing south winds and building waves could produce conditions
hazardous to small craft late tonight. A few thunderstorms are
possible as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday

Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening, posing
a hazard to boaters on the lake and bay.

Gale force wind gusts are possible late Wednesday into Wednesday
night as low pressure intensifies north of Lake Superior.

MG/RDM