Small Craft Advisory 6, NWS Green Bay, WI

576 
WHUS73 KGRB 191016
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
416 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

LMZ541>543-191830-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0006.180119T2100Z-180120T0900Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
416 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 3 AM CST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon. 
  Gusts up to 30 knots. 

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 6 feet by late this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

324 
WHUS73 KGRB 191606
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1006 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

LMZ541>543-200015-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0006.180119T1606Z-180120T0900Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
1006 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots this afternoon.

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 7 feet by late this afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

087 
WHUS73 KGRB 192116
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
316 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

LMZ541>543-200530-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180120T0900Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
316 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots becoming West at 10 to 15 knots
  after midnight.

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

484 
WHUS73 KGRB 200328
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
928 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

LMZ541>543-200900-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-180120T0900Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
928 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
SATURDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots becoming West at 10 to 15 
  knots after midnight. 

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
451 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

Main weather concern tonight will be if any low clouds develop.
MET/SREF guidance showing high probabilities of low clouds across
parts of central WI and much of northern WI later this evening
into Friday morning. MAV guidance not as aggressive with the low
clouds, but the GFS-LAMP data is showing the potential for lower
clouds. Strong inversion will trap low level moisture tonight,
especially across central and northern WI. With temps in the 30s
this afternoon, any melted snow will add to the low level
moisture. Also, some low clouds were observed upstream early this
morning. So thinking is that moisture should be sufficient to get
low clouds to develop over northern WI. A little more questionable
as you work south away from the stronger inversion and higher low
level moisture. Otherwise, a dry night is expected with winds
under 10-15 mph. Temperatures will fall through the evening
hours, then level off or rise slightly as clouds develop (for
some) and weak warm air advection takes place. Looking for most
spots to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s.

Any low clouds that develop tonight will linger into Friday, but
should mix/lift through the morning hours. However, plenty of
moisture above 15,000 ft so expect a good deal of mid-upper level
clouds. 850mb temps climb to near/slightly above 10C on Friday,
and with full mixing, we would expect highs in the 70s!
Unfortunately, it is the middle of January and a strong inversion
remains in place, so highs are expected to reach the upper 30s to
around 40 for most locations.

.LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 334 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The main forecast concern continues to be the path of a surface
low and mid level cyclone late this weekend into early next week.

Of the 12Z versions of the GFS, Canadian and ECMWF, the GFS was
the fastest, had the northern most path of the system, and was
generally strongest with both the surface and mid level cyclones.
The ECMWF was farthest south, slower, and weakest with these
features.

A cold front moving into Wisconsin from the north will bring a
small chance for snow to the northern part of the state Saturday
night into Sunday. The blended model solution brings precipitation
chances into the area from the south later in the day on Sunday.
The southern part of the forecast area should be warm enough for
rain, but snow and maybe even a little freezing rain is possible
across the north. There may be a wintry mix between the two rather
than a sharp rain/snow line, but where this occurs remains in
question. Precipitation chances increase Sunday night, with most
of the area getting snow as the boundary layer cools. On Monday,
warmer air ahead of the approaching surface low will result in a
change back to mainly rain in parts of central and eastern
Wisconsin before colder air behind the departing system results in
a transition to all snow Monday evening. Confidence in any
specific snow totals is low since there is too much uncertainty
due to model differences.

Temperatures look to be much warmer than normal through Monday
before colder air behind the departing system arrives. Near normal
temperatures are in store for Tuesday and Wednesday before
slightly warmer air moves in on Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 446 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

The low clouds (MVFR ceilings) that dropped into far northern
Wisconsin should shift off to the northeast overnight. With just
high clouds and no precip expected the next 24 hours, that leaves
LLWS as the main aviation forecast issue. Winds aloft will
gradually increase Friday. It's somewhat marginal, opted to
include LLWS in the TAFS (spreading SE during the day).
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Bersch
LONG TERM......MG
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
336 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-192145-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
336 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

The next chance for widespread wintry precipitation will be
Sunday into Monday night. A wintry mix of precipitation types is
possible as a result of a large low pressure system that is
forecast to pass across the region. Stay tuned for the latest
information on this approaching winter weather system.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-192145-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
336 PM CST Thu Jan 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Thursday

The probability of hazardous weather is low.

Bersch/MG