Small Craft Advisory 58, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
223 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

A tight pressure gradient over the western Great Lakes continues
to bring gusty west to northwest winds of 30 to 40 mph with some
gusts to 45 mph, especially over Door County where a Wind Advisory
continues. These winds will die down precipitously later this
afternoon and into the early evening as the atmosphere decouples
and high pressure builds in from the west.

Any lingering showers across central and north-central Wisconsin
will also die down with the loss of daytime heating during the
same time period. Drier air advecting in from the west with the
aforementioned high and the loss of daytime heating will cause
clouds to dissipate as well this evening, with mostly clear skies
expected during the overnight hours. Given the cold air mass in
place coupled with the loss of clouds and winds becoming light
overnight lows will tumble into the middle to upper 30s across the
north, with lows around 40 across central and east-central
Wisconsin. The cold overnight lows will likely lead to areas of
frost across central and north-central Wisconsin late tonight and
into the early morning hours of Saturday. Given this is the first
frost of the season and temperatures are expected to dip into the
30s will issue a Frost Advisory from midnight through 8 am for
north-central and portions of central Wisconsin for late tonight
through Saturday morning.

High pressure will then be in firm control of the weather on
Saturday, with mostly sunny skies and cool temperatures. Highs on
Saturday afternoon will mainly be in the lower to middle 60s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Zonal flow and surface high pressure will keep the area dry
through the end of the weekend. Focus for the long term will be
a cold front expected to arrive Monday night into Tuesday.

Return flow behind the high pressure system will bring warmer
temperatures into the region Sunday and Monday afternoon. Late
Monday night into Tuesday morning, the next cold front arrives in
the area. Ample shear will be in the area, but with little
instability in the area. Severe weather seems unlikely at this
time, although showers and a few thunderstorms are possible.

A brief period of quieter conditions is expected Wednesday before
another shortwave approaches the region Thursday night into
Friday.

After the slightly above normal temperatures Sunday and Monday,
temperatures will be around normal through the remainder of the
extended.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

A strong storm system northeast of Lake Superior will produce
gusty west to northwest surface winds this afternoon that may
produce crosswind considerations for light aircraft.

MVFR ceilings will continue to lift this afternoon, with mostly
VFR conditions by late afternoon. Scattered showers may continue
into the afternoon across central and north-central Wisconsin.

Skies should clear overnight, with patchy frost and ground fog
possible in central and northcentral Wisconsin. Good flying
weather is expected Saturday with light winds and clear to mostly
clear skies.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM CDT Saturday for
WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035-036-073-074.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for WIZ022.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Kurimski

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1039 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>021-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-212100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Marathon-Shawano-Wood-
Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1039 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...

Look for gusty west winds across the area today. Winds will gust
to 30 to 40 mph, with a few gusts to 45 mph possible.

Motorists driving high profile vehicles should use extra caution
when driving today. Homeowners should secure any loose outdoor
furniture that could be blown over with these winds. The winds
will also cause sporadic minor tree damage and power outages.

Kurimski

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1123 AM CDT FRI SEP 21 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 ESE FLORENCE          45.90N 88.13W
09/21/2018  M54 MPH          FLORENCE           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BERSCH