Small Craft Advisory 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

556 
WHUS73 KGRB 020309
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
909 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-021115-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0001.180102T1200Z-180103T0900Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
909 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO
3 AM CST WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West to southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots early 
  Tuesday. Gusts to 30 knots possible. 

* WAVES...Building to 2 to 4 feet Tuesday morning. Higher waves
  possible toward the open waters of Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

BERSCH

355 
WHUS73 KGRB 020930
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
330 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-021700-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0001.180102T1200Z-180103T0900Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
330 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West to southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots with
  gusts to 30 knots possible. 

* WAVES...Building to 2 to 4 feet this morning. Higher waves 
  possible toward the open waters of Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

AK

360 
WHUS73 KGRB 021539
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
939 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-022345-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0900Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
939 AM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots 
  possible. 

* WAVES...2 to 4 feet. Higher waves possible toward the open 
  waters of Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

585 
WHUS73 KGRB 022106
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
306 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

LMZ521-522-022215-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0900Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
306 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has cancelled the Small
Craft Advisory. 

The issuance of small craft advisories on the bay has been 
suspended due to ice coverage.

$$

LMZ541>543-030515-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0900Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
306 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots possible.
  Winds will begin to decrease after midnight tonight. 

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. 
  Higher waves possible toward the open waters of Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

575 
WHUS73 KGRB 030307
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
907 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

LMZ541>543-030900-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-180103T0900Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
907 PM CST Tue Jan 2 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST
WEDNESDAY...

* WINDS...West 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots possible. 
  Winds will begin to decrease after midnight tonight. 

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight. 
  Higher waves possible toward the open waters of Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
223 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show a large Arctic
high pressure centered across the central Great Plains early this
afternoon. Brisk west to northwest winds continue across the
region with wind chills only warming between 10 to 20 below zero
over eastern WI and 15 to 25 below zero over central and north-
central WI. Clouds and flurries have also retreated over far
northern WI as low level winds gradually back. With the next
system relatively far away over northern British Columbia, focus
of this forecast continues to revolve around temps and wind
chills.

Tonight...The Arctic high will gradually drop south into the mid-
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, while the next Arctic cold front
slides southeast across central Canada. Between these two
features, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly, which
should maintain an 8-12 mph wind. Temps based on the best
performing guidance suggest readings will be warmer than last
night, which some cirrus pushing in from the north should only
help. But with the persistent wind, widespread wind chills of 25
to 35 below zero are anticipated again. Therefore, no changes to
wind chill headlines.

Tuesday...Winds will continue to back around to the southwest ahead
of an Arctic cold front, which will reach western Lake Superior
by late in the afternoon. Temps will be warmer, and should warm
enough to end the wind chill advisory by late morning or midday at
the latest. Though some scattered to broken cirrus will be around
to start the day, clouds will likely increase from northwest to
southeast during the mid to late afternoon hours. A small chance
that snow could reach far north-central WI 4-6pm. Highs ranging
from the upper single digits to low teens.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

Cold arctic air will be in control of the western Great Lakes
through the early part of the weekend, keeping temperatures a good
10 to 20 degrees below normal for this time of year. Warmer
weather will then advect into the area late in the weekend into
early next week, sending temperatures to near normal levels and
possibly sending high temperatures at or above 20 degrees for the
first time since Christmas Eve.

A mid level PV anomaly coincident with a cold front will track
through Tuesday night, bringing a swath of snow through the
region. Although QPF amounts will be very light, on the order of a
few hundredths of an inch, fairly high snow to liquid ratios on
the order of 20 to 1 will squeeze a few tenths of an inch of snow
out of this system as it tracks through.

After this initial system tracks through the area, dry conditions
are expected for the rest of the week into the early part of next
weekend save for some Lake Effect Snow across the far north and
northern Door County at times. Snowfall from the LES bands should
generally be light during this period.

A large low pressure system will then track through the western
Great Lakes region during the second half of next weekend into
early next week. All models vary quite a bit in how they handle
the strength, timing and phasing of this system, making the
solution that far out difficult to interpret. From the available
data it appears the region could be in for a few inches of
measurable snow with temperatures warming closer to normal levels.
However the amount of snow will depend on if Gulf moisture can be
drawn this far north and if the northern and southern stream
systems can phase, and if they do phase do they phase over the
western Great Lakes or further downstream. Given the high degree
of variability will stick with the superblend solution out this
far and wait for a clearer solution to emerge from subsequent
forecast runs.
&&

.AVIATION...for 00Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

With exception of some Sc off Lake Superior (primarily this
morning), VFR conditions are expected as arctic high pressure
slowly pushes southeast through the Plains. LLWS will develop
tonight as west-southwest winds increase along the northern
periphery of the high.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ005-010>013-
018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......MPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
245 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-022045-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
245 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The combination of cold temperatures and wind will result in
hazardous conditions for anyone outdoors tonight. Conditions such
as those expected can result in frostbite to exposed skin in as
little as 20 to 30 minutes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

The combination of cold temperatures and wind will result in
hazardous conditions Tuesday morning. Similar conditions are
possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and Thursday night
into Friday morning.

Increasing winds may result in some snow drifting onto roads
Tuesday afternoon and evening, especially in open areas. Some
light snow is also possible Tuesday night, but only a minor
accumulation is anticipated.

A low pressure system tracking through the western Great Lakes
Sunday and next Monday will bring the next chance for measurable
snow to the area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-022045-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
245 PM CST Mon Jan 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Monday

A few gale force gusts from the southwest are possible Tuesday
through Tuesday evening, mainly towards the open waters of Lake
Michigan.

MPC/Kurimski