River Flood Warning 16, NWS Green Bay, WI

694 
WGUS83 KGRB 200151
FLSGRB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
851 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...

  Wisconsin River below Stevens Point affecting Portage County
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. The next scheduled 
routine statement will be issued tomorrow morning.

&&

WIC097-201650-
/O.CON.KGRB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/STPW3.1.ER.180619T0828Z.180619T1210Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
851 PM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wisconsin River below Stevens Point.
* At  7:10 PM Tuesday the stage was 1076 feet. 
* Flood stage is 1076 feet. 
* Impacts at 1076 feet. There is widespread flooding of wooded 
  lowland.  

&&

LAT...LON 4458 8961 4450 8956 4448 8964 4458 8967


$$

207 
WGUS83 KGRB 201539
FLSGRB

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1039 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Wisconsin...


  Wisconsin River below Stevens Point AFFECTING Portage County
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Caution is urged when walking near riverbanks. 

&&

WIC097-201609-
/O.CAN.KGRB.FL.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180620T1539Z/
/STPW3.1.ER.180619T0828Z.180619T1210Z.180620T0017Z.UU/
1039 AM CDT Wed Jun 20 2018

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Wisconsin River below Stevens Point.
* At 10:10 AM Wednesday the stage was 1075 feet. 
* Flood stage is 1076 feet. 
* Impacts at 1076 feet. There is widespread flooding of wooded 
  lowland.  

&&

LAT...LON 4458 8961 4450 8956 4448 8964 4458 8967


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
327 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Cool with some showers in central and east-central Wisconsin
today. Otherwise, drier weather with seasonable temperatures and
humidities is expected for the rest of the work week. The next
chance for showers should hold off until the weekend.

The upper flow across North America is split into two primary
branches. The northern branch is almost completely across Canada,
with a ridge near the West Coast and a trough near Hudson Bay.
The southern branch across the CONUS is comprised of an upper low
within a trough over the intermountain West, and ridging
downstream over the Great Lakes region. A seasonably strong
frontal boundary was associated with the southern branch of the
flow, with very moist air stretched out along the boundary.
Both branches of the flow will be progressive, though progression
will occur more quickly with the southern branch. It appears as
though just enough amplification of northern branch trough will
occur to deflect energy from the southern stream trough south of
the area as it progresses across the Plains and into the eastern
United States. That should keep heavy rains with the very moist
air along the frontal boundary south of the area.

Temperatures across central and east-central Wisconsin will be
held down today by clouds and showers, otherwise readings
probably won't stray too far from seasonal normals for the rest of
period. The rainfall totals today will be much lighter than
during the weekend. With limited opportunities for rain
thereafter, amounts for the period will probably end up AOB
normal, giving the area a chance to dry out after all the rain
last weekend.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Although the surface frontal boundary was well south of the area,
the southern portion of the forecast area remains within the
frontal zone aloft. Plentiful moisture combined with weak forcing
will bring showers to about the southern half of the area today.
Instability is forecast to be limited, so will limit thunder
chances to the far south. The clouds and rain will hold
temperatures back in central and east-central Wisconsin, with more
warming expected across the north where some filtered sun is
likely.

The precipitation should finally sag south of the area late this
afternoon or this evening. Clouds will slowly decrease from north
to south. Sharpened up the north/south temperature gradient in
the overnight lows. With light winds and limited clouds tonight,
added patchy fog to the north for tonight.

Drier air should finally be in place across the entire area
Wednesday. That combined with mostly sunny (north) to partly sunny
(south) skies should allow temperatures to warm to near normal
levels for late June.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

Forecast concerns mainly revolve around precip chances later this
week when a closed upper low slowly tracks across the region.  The
ecmwf and gfs appear to agree pretty well with this system so will
blend these two solutions for the forecast.

Wednesday night through Thursday night...A surface cold front will
remain relatively stalled over the mid-Mississippi Valley to the
Ohio Valley during this period.  Occluded low pressure will be
traveling east along the boundary, and is projected to remain far
enough south to have little if any impact on our weather. Meanwhile,
Canadian high pressure will be building south over the northern
Great Lakes.  Other than some cirrus at times from the system to the
south, east to northeast winds will keep a dry airmass over the
region.  With relatively comfortable humidity levels, highs on
Thursday will mainly be in the middle to upper 70s.  Lows in the 50s
each night except colder readings in the cold spots across the
northwoods.

Rest of the forecast...After dry weather on Friday, the low pressure
system will be lifting to the northeast on Friday night into
Saturday. This appears to be the next best chance of precipitation
for the region, though it appears the deepest moisture and most
significant precip will get shunted into the central Great Lakes.
Then it looks like Canadian high pressure will return for Sunday and
into early next week.  With the cloud cover and/or potential for
showers, temps will fall back some on Friday and Saturday, before
returning to near seasonable norms on Sunday and Monday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 324 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

The main aviation weather concerns will be ceilings today and fog
tonight. The potential exists for MVFR ceilings to shift back
into central and east-central Wisconsin today as showers continue
to affect those areas. Will make issuance time decision on how to
handle that in the TAFs. Provided cloud trends proceed as
expected, at least patchy fog is expected tonight over central and
north-central Wisconsin. Plan to start by handling it with a
TEMPO group in the 12Z issuance. Later shifts can reevaluate and
include it as a prevailing condition if it looks like the fog
will be more than just patchy.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS.......Skowronski
SHORT TERM.....Skowronski
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
333 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-201100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
333 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Runoff from recent rainfall will lead to high levels and fast
flows on many areas streams and rivers. Boaters and fisherman
should exercise caution due to fast flows.

Isolated thunderstorms could be embedded within a large area of
showers affecting central and east-central Wisconsin today. The
storms are not expected to be severe.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms on Friday night. Severe
weather is not expected at this time.

High levels and fast flows will continue as runoff from recent
rains continues to work its way through area river systems.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today or tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-201100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
333 AM CDT Tue Jun 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is a small chance of thunderstorms on Friday night. The
storms may pose a hazard to mariners.

Skowronski/MPC