River Flood Advisory 5, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
604 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Saturday
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

The first band of rain, mixed with a little snow over Door County,
moved offshore overnight. Otherwise, skies were clear to partly
cloudy early this morning with the clouds and precipitation across
northern Minnesota racing southeast towards the area. Temperatures
at 3 am ranged from the middle to upper 20s across the north to
the middle 30s to around 40 south.

For today, a 500mb trough is expected to swing across the
western Great Lakes region. A strong upper level disturbance
moving along the mean flow is expected to drop southeast across
west central into southeast Wisconsin. The combination of cold
air aloft and the upper level disturbance will trigger showers
and isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Precipitation type may
be an issue for much of the morning across the far north.

Complex forecast this morning across the north. Temperatures are
well below freezing this morning. However, the compact system was
drawing warm air into the region, along with the strong April
sunshine should allow temperatures to warm well above freezing
later this morning. However, steep mid level lapse rates and
evaporative cooling, combined with intense precipitation rates
could allow for a few inches of snow to fall across the far north,
mainly across Oneida and Vilas counties east into Forest County.
Current forecast has around an inch for Vilas County with less
than an inch for Oneida and Forest Counties. If the convective
showers could move over the same area for a period of time, would
not be surprised if there were localized amounts of 2 to 3 inches
due to the intense precipitation rates. Over the remainder of the
region, isolated thunderstorms are possible generally west of a
Manitowoc to Crandon to Manitowish Waters line. Gusty winds and
small hail will be possible with the showers and storms due to the
low wet bulb zero heights and precipitation rates. Models did
show an inverted v signature to support the gusty winds. The risk
of thunder should end around sunset. Any lingering showers should
end during the evening.

High pressure will build into the region later tonight with
clouds on the decrease. The high pressure system will bring sunny
skies on Saturday with very low relative humidity readings during
the afternoon. Trended toward the warmer MAV guidance due to the
sunny skies and low relative humidity readings which should allow
for the warmer temperatures.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Thursday
Issued at 304 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

The latest medium range models suggest this part of the forecast
will start out quiet, then turn more active for the middle of next
week.  A general model blend will suffice.

Saturday night through Sunday night...High pressure will be centered
across the region for Saturday night and Sunday.  With ample dry air
present, should see mostly clear conditions through the period.  As
the high shifts to the Appalachians on Sunday night, southwest flow
will increase aloft and moisture will start to invade the region
late.  Will likely see some increasing clouds, but precip chances
should hold off until later.  Temps returning to the low 60s away
from Lake Michigan on Sunday.

Rest of the forecast...Warm advection will crank into a higher gear
on Monday as a cold front moves across the north-central Plains.  In
addition to the warm advection, a weak shortwave could bring a few
showers to the region on Monday.  The front will then move across
the area on late Tue afternoon into Tuesday night.  Though upper
dynamics are not impressive, will have some instability present
which could lead to a few thunderstorms.  This front will stall
nearby the area on Wednesday and possibly into Thursday.  Periods of
showers and storms will be possible along the front, especially
during the Wednesday night and Thursday period, though its too early
to assess the severe threat. Temps could be quite warm on Monday and
Tuesday, and raised highs several degrees with coordination from
surrounding offices.  Temps do fall back behind the front for late
in the week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 12Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 559 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected
today. A little snow is also likely across the north this morning,
generally north of a Merrill to Iron Mountain line. There is a
lot of cold air aloft, thus some of the showers and storms could
produce small hail. The showers will come to an end later this
afternoon across the north and across central and east-central
Wisconsin early this evening. Behind the system, there will be
some gusty winds from the north/northeast across northeast
Wisconsin. High pressure builds into the region on Saturday,
bringing diminishing winds and good flying conditions.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Eckberg
LONG TERM......MPC
AVIATION.......Eckberg

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
813 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

WIZ005-010-018-271515-
Vilas-Oneida-Lincoln-
813 AM CDT Fri Apr 27 2018

...SNOW, SLEET AND RAIN WILL MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS AND SIDEWALKS...

A mixture of snow, sleet and rain will arrive in the Northwoods
this morning and could make roads and sidewalks slippery in some
places. The precipitation should change to all rain by afternoon.

RDM