Gale Warning 10, NWS Green Bay, WI

273 
WHUS73 KGRB 201522
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1022 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-202330-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.180921T0300Z-180922T0000Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
1022 AM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
CDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Becoming south this evening and increasing to 30 knots 
  with 35 knot gale force gusts. Southwest winds to 30 knots early
  Friday veering to northwest by Friday afternoon. Gale force 
  gusts over 35 knots are likely. 

* WAVES...Building to 3 to 5 feet on the Bay and 6 to 10 feet 
  along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters by late Thursday 
  night into Friday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

346 
WHUS73 KGRB 202016
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
316 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-210430-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.180921T0300Z-180922T0000Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
316 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
CDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Becoming south this evening and increasing to 30 knots
  with gale force gusts to 35 knots. Winds veering southwest early
  Friday, and then veering northwest by Friday afternoon. Gale 
  force gusts over 35 knots are likely on Friday.
  

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 6 feet on the Bay and 6 to 10 feet
  along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters by late tonight into 
  Friday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

937 
WHUS73 KGRB 210153
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
853 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-211000-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.180921T0300Z-180922T0000Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
853 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 30 knots overnight. Gale force 
  gusts to 35 knots. Winds veering southwest early Friday, and 
  then veering northwest by Friday afternoon. Gale force gusts 
  over 35 knots are likely on Friday. 

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 6 feet on the Bay and 5 to 8 feet 
  along the Lake Michigan nearshore waters by late tonight into 
  Friday morning. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

215 
WHUS73 KGRB 210901
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
401 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-211715-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180922T0000Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
401 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 30 knots and veering to 35 knot
  west gales around noon. Winds veering to northwest in the
  afternoon. Gusts to 40 knots are likely.
  

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 6 feet on the Bay and 5 to 8 feet along
  the Lake Michigan nearshore waters by midday.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

521 
WHUS73 KGRB 211529
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1029 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-212330-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180922T0000Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
1029 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...West gales to 35 knot veering northwest in the
  afternoon. Gusts to 40 knots. 

* WAVES...3 to 6 feet. Highest waves along Door County on the bay
  and toward the open waters on Lake Michigan. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

Bersch

459 
WHUS73 KGRB 212019
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
319 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-220400-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180922T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGRB.SC.Y.0058.180922T0000Z-180922T0400Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
319 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect from 7 PM to 11 PM CDT this
evening. 

* WINDS...Northwest gales to 35 knots early this evening,
  decreasing to 20 to 30 knots through late this evening. 

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet. Highest waves along Door County on the 
  bay and toward the open waters on Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

071 
WHUS73 KGRB 220008
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
708 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

LMZ521-522-541>543-220400-
/O.EXP.KGRB.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-180922T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0058.000000T0000Z-180922T0400Z/
Green Bay south of line from  Cedar River to Rock Island Passage
and north of a line from Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Green Bay south of line from  Oconto WI to Little Sturgeon Bay WI-
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
708 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...
...GALE WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 knots. 

* WAVES...3 to 5 feet. Highest waves along Door County on the 
  bay and toward the open waters on Lake Michigan. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1032 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Thursday
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

A surface warm front will lift north tonight and Thursday,
producing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms with
abundant isentropic lift north of the front combined with an
increasing low level jet and mid level PV anomalies. Heavy rain
will be possible at times given the deep moisture layer and the
slow moving front.

Models indicate that an inch or two of rain could fall during this
time, which could cause localized flooding. However given most
areas, except for Brown County, have been fairly dry recently the
threat for Flash Flooding does not appear to be that high. However
some urban and small stream flooding is possible from the heavier
rains.

As the front lifts north Thursday afternoon the southern cwa will
actually break into the warm sector with continued rain across
north-central Wisconsin north of the warm front as isentropic lift
continues to cause elevated convection. This will bring warm
temperatures and uncomfortable dew points back to central and
east-central Wisconsin. This warm, moist air will also cause a
surge in the instability as MUCAPEs rise to 2000 to 3000 J/kg with
bulk shear values of 50 to 70 knots. If any storms can get going
in the warm sector Thursday afternoon there is a good chance for
severe weather given the wind and instability profiles. That being
said the best potential appears to hold off until Thursday night
when a cold front approaches from the west given a capping
inversion in the warm sector Thursday afternoon. If any storms can
get going Thursday afternoon the main threat would be damaging
winds given the strong winds just above the surface, with hail
and being a secondary threat. The high degree of turning in the
low level hodographs also indicates that tornadoes could be a
threat as well.

Lows tonight will generally be in the 50s. Highs on Thursday will
range from the middle to upper 70s across central and east-
central Wisconsin south of the warm front and generally south of
highway 29, with highs only in the lower to middle 60s further
north, north of the warm front.

.LONG TERM...Thursday Night Through Wednesday
Issued at 226 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

The main concerns for the extended period will be the severe
weather potential Thursday night and the potential for frost
Friday night into Saturday morning across northern Wisconsin.

The potential for severe storms will concentrated towards Thursday
evening to the early overnight hours, as the cold front moves
through the region. MUCAPE still varies from 1000-1500 on the
ECMWF to 2500-3000 on the NAM. Bulk layer 0-6km shear values
approach the 45-55 knots while low layer shear remains strong
around 25-35 knots. Couple these with the strong low level jet and
even the low end MUCAPE will be sufficient for thunderstorm
development and mixing of winds to the surface. Therefore, expect
the primary threat for the area to be damaging winds, with a few
brief tornadoes and large hail as secondary concerns. High
rainfall totals up to around 1-2 inches by the end of the event
will also pose localized flooding concerns on the roads. The front
is expected to be fast moving in the area, pushing through the
region by early on Friday.

Friday, additional shower to isolated thunderstorm activity will
be possible, as wrap around moisture continues to enter northern
Wisconsin behind the departing low pressure system. No severe
potential is expected during this time. By Friday evening, active
weather will be out of the region as high pressure moves into the
region.

Depending on the speed at which cloud cover exits behind the
system Friday night, frost may become more of a concern across the
area, especially in the typical cold spots in northern Wisconsin.
Stuck to a blend of model guidance for now, leaving lows in the
middle 30s, as the active weather ahead of Friday will help
dictate the temperatures trend at that time.

Beyond that, quieter conditions will persist across the area for
the weekend before we see the next shot for active weather arrive
Monday night into Tuesday.

Temperatures for the time period will be fairly close to normal,
with a brief period of above normal temperatures on Monday ahead
of the next round of active weather.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

IFR/LIFR conditions will continue, through the rain may
result in a brief, temporary mixing out of the lower ceilings. Do
not expect ceilings to improve much until the warm front begins to
lift through the area late tomorrow. LLWS will also develop
during the day tomorrow, and is expected to be substantial
tomorrow evening.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....Kurimski
LONG TERM......Uhlmann
AVIATION.......Skowronski

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1033 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-201100-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
1033 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Heavy rainfall is possible with thunderstorms late tonight, mainly
across central and east-central Wisconsin. Severe storms are not
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms Thursday
through Thursday evening and heavy rainfall is also possible.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the main severe threats, but
tornadoes are also possible.

Frost is possible over northern and parts of central Wisconsin
Friday night into early Saturday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight, but reports of
heavy rainfall or flooding would be greatly appreciated.

LMZ521-522-541>543-201100-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
1033 PM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight, posing a hazard to mariners.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There is a chance of thunderstorms into Thursday night. Any
storms may pose a hazard to mariners.

Southwest gales are possible Thursday night and gale conditions
may persist on Friday as winds veer to the northwest.

Skowronski