Gale Warning 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

316 
WHUS73 KGRB 061602
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1002 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

LMZ541-070015-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0001.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
1002 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 30 knots late tonight and
  continuing into Sunday morning before subsiding Sunday
  afternoon. Gale gusts to 40 knots possible late tonight into 
  Sunday morning. 

* WAVES...Building to 6 to 10 feet early Sunday morning on ice
  free areas. Highest toward the open waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ542-543-070015-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0002.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
1002 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 
  around 30 knots by midnight tonight and continuing into Sunday 
  morning, then diminishing Sunday afternoon. 

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 7 feet overnight on ice free areas. 
  Highest toward the open waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

BERSCH

728 
WHUS73 KGRB 062232
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
432 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

LMZ541-070645-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0001.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
432 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 30 knots late tonight and 
  continuing into Sunday morning before subsiding Sunday 
  afternoon. Gale gusts to 40 knots possible late tonight into 
  Sunday morning. 

* WAVES...Building to 6 to 9 feet early Sunday morning on ice 
  free areas. Highest toward the open waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ542-543-070645-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0002.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
432 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 
  around 30 knots by midnight tonight and continuing into Sunday 
  morning, then diminishing Sunday afternoon. 

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 7 feet overnight on ice free areas. 
  Highest toward the open waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

863 
WHUS73 KGRB 070238
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
838 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

LMZ541-071045-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0001.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
838 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 30 knots late tonight and 
  continuing into Sunday morning before subsiding Sunday 
  afternoon. Gale gusts to 40 knots possible late tonight into 
  Sunday morning. 

* WAVES...Building to 6 to 9 feet early Sunday morning on ice 
  free areas. Highest toward the open waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ542-543-071045-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0002.180107T0600Z-180108T0000Z/
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
838 PM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest increasing to 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 
  around 30 knots by midnight tonight and continuing into Sunday 
  morning, then diminishing Sunday afternoon. 

* WAVES...Building to 4 to 7 feet overnight on ice free areas. 
  Highest toward the open waters. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

405 
WHUS73 KGRB 071001
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
401 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

LMZ541-071800-
/O.CON.KGRB.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180108T0000Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
401 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest to 30 knots this morning then gradually diminishing
  this afternoon. A few gale gusts to 40 knots possible this 
  morning. 

* WAVES...6 to 10 feet on ice free areas. Higher waves toward the
  open waters. Waves subsiding late this afternoon and evening.  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Gale Warning means winds around 35 knots or greater are
expected.  Operating a vessel in gale conditions requires
experience and properly equipped vessels.  It is highly
recommended that mariners without the proper experience seek safe
harbor prior to the onset of gale conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ542-543-071800-
/O.CON.KGRB.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180108T0000Z/
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
401 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots this 
  morning, then gradually diminishing this afternoon.
 
* WAVES...4 to 7 on ice free areas. Higher waves toward the open
  waters. Waves subsiding late this afternoon and evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

546 
WHUS73 KGRB 071608
MWWGRB

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1008 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

LMZ541-080015-
/O.CAN.KGRB.GL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180108T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KGRB.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180108T0900Z/
Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI-
1008 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Green Bay has issued a Small
Craft Advisory, which is in effect until 3 AM CST Monday. The
Gale Warning has been cancelled. 

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots,
  gradually diminishing late this afternoon and evening. 

* WAVES...4 to 8 feet on ice free areas. Higher waves possible 
  toward the open waters. Waves slowly subsiding this afternoon 
  and evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

LMZ542-543-080015-
/O.EXT.KGRB.SC.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-180108T0900Z/
Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI-Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI-
1008 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST MONDAY...

* WINDS...Southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots, 
  gradually diminishing this afternoon and evening. 

* WAVES...4 to 7 feet on ice free areas. Higher waves possible 
  toward the open waters. Waves slowly subsiding this afternoon 
  and evening. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Small Craft Advisory means that wind speeds over 20 knots or
waves greater than 4 feet are expected to produce hazardous
conditions to small craft.  Inexperienced mariners, especially
those operating smaller vessels should avoid navigating in these
conditions.

&&

$$

BERSCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
234 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Sunday
Issued at 233 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

Satellite imagery early this morning shows Lake Superior clouds
were more confined across north central Wisconsin vs the last few
nights with cloud plumes reaching central Wisconsin. The cold air
mass and clear skies were allowing temperatures to plummet. Some
winds combined with the cold air early this morning were lowering
wind chill readings to near advisory levels over parts of northeast
Wisconsin but more variable winds over central and north central
areas were producing more variable wind chill values. Will handle
any wind chill issues with an sps if need be.

Surface ridge drifting over the area today will bring abundant
sunshine and one more cold day as the cold boundary layer air
mass will be recycled even though height 850 temps will be on the
increase late in the day. Depending on cloud arrival late today
into this evening, low temperatures will occur this evening before
turning steady or slowly rising as the warm air advection pattern
develops with increasing south to southwest winds. Progs indicate
the best isent lift is well north of the WI/MI border, with
perhaps up to an inch across northern and far northeast Wisconsin
from late tonight into early Sunday morning.

Temperature profiles suggests a potential of any lingering light
snow mixing with light freezing drizzle on Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to climb to closer to normal levels on
Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Friday
Issued at 233 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

All models are now on board with the mean flow becoming more
progressive starting this weekend and continuing well into next
week. Two pronounced upper troughs are forecast to move across the
CONUS. The first system to be in the process of exiting the Great
Lakes at the start of the long-term (Sunday night), with the
second system to arrive roughly during the Wednesday into Thursday
night time frame. The much anticipated warm-up is still on target
next week, looking to max out either Wednesday or Thursday
depending on when system #2 arrives.

The cold front/trailing broad upper trough to still be in the
process of moving across eastern WI Sunday evening and with a
gradual loss of saturation aloft, this could still bring a small
chance of freezing drizzle into play. While amounts are expected
to be very light, any freezing drizzle could produce some slick
spots on area roads/sidewalks. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies to
prevail over northeast WI with min temperatures in the middle to
upper teens north, upper teens to lower 20s south. As a new upper
trough hits the West Coast on Monday, this will kick the now-
modest upper ridge into the Rockies and allow for a milder Pacific
air mass to spread across the Plains. At the surface, a ridge of
high pressure is expected to move into the Upper MS Valley/Midwest
by 00z Tuesday and bring quiet weather conditions to northeast WI.
Monday may also bring the first true mild day to the region since
mid-December as max temperatures reach the upper 20s north-central
WI, lower 30s elsewhere.

This surface ridge slides east and will reside over the western
Great Lakes region for Monday night. Mostly clear skies with light
winds this time of year typically translates to a free-fall in
temperatures. However, as milder Pacific air aloft continues to
push eastward into WI, min temperatures are expected to only fall
to around 10 above zero north, 10 to 15 degrees south. As the
surface ridge shifts to our east on Tuesday, a return flow sets up
as south winds ushers warmer air into WI. 8H temperatures rise
above 0C and even with a general increase in clouds and cold start
to the day, max temperatures will be able to reach the middle to
upper 20s north, upper 20s to around 30 degrees south.

There is now some concern with respect to light precipitation
chances Tuesday night as WAA persists and deeper moisture pushes
into WI. 8H temperatures are forecast to hover a couple of
degrees either side of 0C, therefore precipitation type may become
a problem. Have added a small pop to parts of the forecast area
for now with precipitation type holding as all snow as any
precipitation should cool the layer to the wet-bulb, thereby
keeping any mixed precipitation away. By Wednesday, the strong
upper trough from the West Coast is forecast to reach the
central/southern Plains and strengthen enough to close off into an
upper low. The modest push of WAA continues across WI, thus spotty
areas of either light snow, light rain or a mix is forecast over
northeast WI. Max temperatures on Wednesday to range from the
middle 30s north, middle 30s to around 40 degrees south.

The forecast remains uncertain for the middle to latter part of
next week as the models have timing issues with both the movement
of the upper trough and an eastward moving cold front. The GFS is
faster with both features, with a more southern track of the
accompanying surface low track. The ECMWF and UKMET are slower
with the upper trough and take a more northern track of the
surface low (as well as a slower movement of the cold front).
While precipitation chances will increase with any of these
solutions, precipitation type would be impacted especially over
the southeast half of the forecast area. Thursday could be an
interesting day if the GFS is correct with accumulating snow for
all of northeast WI. This situation will likely fluctuate over the
next few days, so stay tuned. Max temperatures for Thursday will
be a toss-up between the colder GFS and warmer ECMWF. Have
followed the consensus which brings middle 20s to north-central,
middle 30s east-central WI.

Light snow will continue through at least Thursday evening before
the snow threat ends during the late night hours. A ridge of high
pressure to then build toward the western Great Lakes on Friday
and bring a return of some sunshine, albeit colder conditions as
the mean flow to have turned northwest again. Max temperatures
will only reach 10 to 15 above north-central, 15 to 20 degrees
elsewhere.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 840 PM CST Fri Jan 5 2018

Potential for MVFR ceilings continues across north-central
Wisconsin overnight. Extent of expansion of low clouds is still a
question. Otherwise, VFR conditions for much of Saturday. Next
weather system will bring widespread MVFR ceilings after 06Z
Sunday with a period of light snow/flurries to follow.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 233 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

Period of gusty south to southwest winds expected late tonight
into sunday morning as a low pressure trough tracks north of the
area. On the fence with a SCA or Gale Warning, but with a south to
southwest wind, will issue a gale warning for the northern
portion of the Lake michigan zone with the best potential of gale
gusts, and SCA for areas south.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....TDH
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......JKL
MARINE.........TDH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
246 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-070900-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
246 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Cold temperatures will linger this morning, but will be followed
with a moderating trend starting tonight. Light snow is expected
late tonight into Sunday morning, especially across northern and
far northeast Wisconsin. While accumulations are forecast to range
from one-half to one inch north to a dusting elsewhere, hazardous
travel conditions will be possible due to snow-covered and
slippery roads.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a slight chance of freezing drizzle Sunday into Sunday
night. Any freezing drizzle would produce slippery spots on area
roadways and sidewalks.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward snowfall measurements to the
National Weather Service in Green Bay.

LMZ521-522-541>543-070900-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
246 AM CST Sat Jan 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Gale force gusts will be possible late tonight, especially along
Lake Michigan shoreline of Door County. Freezing spray is also
expected on Lake Michigan late tonight into Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Gale force gusts will linger into Sunday morning, especially along
the Door County Lake Michigan shoreline. Winds are expected to
subside later Sunday.

TDH/AK