Tornado Warning 31, NWS Goodland, KS

361 
WWUS53 KGLD 300011
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
611 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

COC063-300021-
/O.EXP.KGLD.TO.W.0031.000000T0000Z-180730T0015Z/
Kit Carson CO-
611 PM MDT SUN JUL 29 2018

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
615 PM MDT...
    
The tornado threat has diminished and the Tornado Warning has been
cancelled. However, large hail and damaging winds remain likely and a
Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for the area.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for northeastern
and east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3956 10315 3957 10272 3919 10235 3904 10293
      3904 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 341DEG 44KT 3982 10289 

$$

EV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
233 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Latest upper air analysis shows high pressure over the Desert
Southwest beginning to extend northward. Moving around the high
pressure is an upper level short wave trough, currently over
Southeast Wyoming. East of the Rockies, widespread cloud cover was
seen on satellite.  At the surface a stationary front extended
south- southeast from Wyoming toward Southeast Colorado.

For the rest of the afternoon the severe thunderstorms in Wyoming
will spread southeast, and additional storms will move east off
the Rockies, toward the High Plains. The stationary front will
serve as a focus for convection as well. Am expecting the
strongest storms to be located near this front. Am expecting storm
activity to be moving into northwest Yuma County before the
afternoon is over.

This evening storm activity will continue spreading southeast
across the forecast area. The storm activity should spread
southeast fairly quickly in the early evening. Storms should have
a peak intensity from roughly 5-9 PM local time. Of concern is
the lower 700-500mb lapse rates as the upper level short wave
trough moves through. This may indicate the severe activity will
only last a couple hours into the event, by the time storms move
into the forecast area, before storm intensity declines. Storm
activity will end from northwest to southeast late in the evening,
possibly lasting an hour or two after midnight.

Threats:

Hail up to golf ball size, possibly up to hen egg in the tornado
watch area.

Wind gusts up to 70 MPH. This will mainly be a threat south of
Highway 36.

Flash flooding. This is more favored south of Highway 36 where
repeated rounds of heavy rainfall are more likely to occur.
Am on the fence regarding issuing a watch at this point. If WPC
issues an MCD for flash flooding, will be much more in favor of
issuing a watch.

Tornadoes. This will be more likely further west toward the
stationary front. Low level helicity is very supportive of tornado
genesis over Kit Carson, Cheyenne, and souther Yuma County, with
the eastern fringe of the helicity extending just across the
state line into Kansas in counties in the tornado watch.

Confidence concerns:

The widespread cloud cover is very concerning for severe weather
generation. Severe weather has not lived up to what the
environment could generate the last couple of days, so the added
cooling effect of the cloud cover lowers confidence of severe
weather occurring. Also, the models seem to have slightly slowed
down the arrival of the severe weather. The later in the day
storms move in, the less likely they will be of producing severe
weather.

In general am expecting severe weather to occur, the question is
what will the areal coverage be. At this point confidence is low
that the severe threat will be of the magnitude that we typically
would see for an enhanced risk day.

Due to the complexities of the weather today, have not had a
chance to analyze weather for Monday. A quick looks shows a
possibility for storms in the morning, which seems reasonable
given what has happened the last two days. During the afternoon
the upper level trough axis moves through bringing any storm
activity to an end.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 117 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

On Monday night, an upper trough exits the High Plains from west to
east and northwest flow redevelops aloft, with upper ridging across
the west coast. Surface high pressure moves into the region behind
the departing wave, resulting in dry weather through Wednesday
night.

Thursday through Saturday, the western upper ridge expands east and
flattens as a disturbance travels east along the Canadian border. The
ridge quickly redevelops and amplifies on Sunday. Predominantly dry
conditions are forecast to persist during this timeframe. However,
some spotty slight chances of showers and thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out during the evening hours as weak waves rotate through the
the northwest flow.

High temperatures gradually warm from the 80s on Tuesday to the low
90s on Friday. Temperatures in the 90s continue over the weekend as
well. Low temperatures follow suit and steadily warm, ranging from
the low 50s to the low 70s throughout the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

Similar story to yesterday, VFR conditions will prevail in the
early TAF period until this late afternoon. Once convection
develops, sub-vfr conditions can be expected. Low confidence on
exact timing, location, and intensity of storms expected to impact
the terminal. Amendments will be issued as confidence becomes
more certain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...EV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
239 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-302045-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
239 PM MDT Sun Jul 29 2018 /339 PM CDT Sun Jul 29 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A Tornado Watch is currently in effect until 9 PM MDT for Colorado
counties, Cheyenne, Kit Carson, and Yuma. It is also in effect for
the following Kansas counties, Sherman, Greeley, and Wallace
until 9 PM MDT.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 9 PM MDT 10 PM CDT
for Nebraska counties Dundy and Hitchcock, and Kansas counties,
Cheyenne, Rawlins, Thomas, Sheridan, Logan, Gove, and Wichita.

Severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail up to golf
ball or even hen egg size. Wind gusts up to 70 mph may occur south of
Highway 36. Tornadoes may occur in the tornado watch area, with the
threat increasing to the west. The potential for severe weather will
be greatest in eastern Colorado and extreme western Kansas between 6
PM and 9 PM MDT. Flash flooding will remain possible, particularly
in areas repeatedly affected by thunderstorms during the past 48
hours and for locations south of Highway 36.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. Any
severe weather reports are greatly appreciated.

JTL