Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
810 PM MDT Sun Aug 5 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 242 PM MDT Sun Aug 5 2018

Uncertain and low confidence forecast. Subtle features surface and
aloft. Cloud cover and early convection have hindered instability
in some place. In general, it is a messy setup out there. Outflow
boundaries and at least one surface trough are over the area at
this time. Cold front remains to the north and is expected to move
through tonight. Right rear quadrant is current affecting the
area. Also the first in a number shortwaves are moving through.

General consensus of high resolution/Cams is for spotty and
unorganized convection. Most intense convection looks to be move
in from the west and northwest during the evening and overnight
hours. Put pops in the high chance category ahead of surface
trough and shortwave. These storms should move to the south and
east through the night. Look to have a chance for isolated severe
and locally heavy rainfall.

On Monday morning, look to have some lingering rainfall in the
morning. Front will have moved through and looks to go south of
the area with upslope flow behind it. At this same time area gets
affected by right rear quadrant of the upper jet and another
shortwave. Models not too excited about the afternoon
precipitation chances over our area. It is possible that main area
of rainfall could be south of area. Considering the shear in
place, there looks to be a chance of severe in the afternoon.

It will be cooler tomorrow area wide due to being in a postfrontal
upslope air mass, and lingering cloud cover and precipitation.
Depending on the cloud cover, the temperatures could go either
direction.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 131 PM MDT Sun Aug 5 2018

A persistent upper-level ridge will be present over the southwest
United States Monday evening while a broad longwave upper-level
trough over the northern Great Plains slowly progresses eastward.
The combination of these two features aloft will produce a jet of
relatively strong upper-level westerlies/northwesterlies over the
Central High Plains which should last until Wednesday. This upper-
level flow pattern is conducive to the formation of several
shortwave troughs developing lee of the Rockies which may provide
the conditions necessary for showers and thunderstorms in the Tri-
State Region. As such, the afternoon/evening hours for Monday,
Tuesday, and Wednesday could all see scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the area with PoPs around 20-40% in some
places. More exact timing and location of these storms will be
difficult before the day of for each event, but it is possible
that some of these storms may be severe. The main threats if so
would be large hail and damaging winds.

Starting Wednesday, the ridge over the southwest United States
begins to expand northward, bringing a more northerly flow pattern
over the Central High Plains which will last from Thursday through
Sunday next week. The end of next week is therefore expected to
be much drier, especially as the upper-level flow becomes weaker
and strong vertical wind shear is no longer present over the Tri-
State Region.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler next week with highs generally
in the upper 80s across the Central High Plains and lows generally
in the low 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 800 PM MDT Sun Aug 5 2018

Both terminals could be impacted by thunderstorms this evening and
tonight, primarily between 00-08Z. Strong/erratic winds can be
expected invof any thunderstorms. MVFR/IFR ceilings will be
possible in the wake of thunderstorm activity late tonight
(09-15Z Monday morning). Forecast confidence in sensible weather
conditions during the day Monday is well below average,
particularly with regard to timing/coverage of convection.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1040 AM MDT Sun Aug 5 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1040 AM MDT Sun Aug 5 2018 /1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 5 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the area into the
overnight hours. Some of these storms could become severe this
afternoon and evening. The main threats will be damaging winds,
large hail of at least 2 inches in diameter, and locally heavy
rainfall which could cause flash flooding. An isolated tornado will
be possible for locations along the Nebraska and Kansas border.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms across northeast
Colorado and northwest Kansas Monday afternoon and evening. Threats
will include large hail and damaging winds...as well as locally heavy
rainfall creating potential isolated flash flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required this afternoon and evening over
the entire area.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
635 PM MDT SUN AUG 5 2018

KSZ013-014-027-028-060100-
Wallace KS-Thomas KS-Logan KS-Sherman KS-
635 PM MDT SUN AUG 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN WALLACE...
SOUTHWESTERN THOMAS...NORTHWESTERN LOGAN AND SOUTHEASTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MDT/800 PM CDT/...

At 635 PM MDT/735 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles south of Goodland, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Goodland.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 17 and 26.

LAT...LON 3926 10187 3938 10165 3919 10130 3896 10165
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 320DEG 36KT 3923 10167

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
655 PM MDT SUN AUG 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND GST     11 NNW SHARON SPRINGS   39.05N 101.81W
08/05/2018  M65 MPH          WALLACE            KS   MESONET

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
801 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

KSZ003-004-060130-
Norton KS-Decatur KS-
801 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN DECATUR COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 800 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Oberlin, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Oberlin, Norcatur, Jennings, Clayton, Reager and Kanona.

LAT...LON 3964 10055 3981 10059 3992 10010 3965 10004
TIME...MOT...LOC 0100Z 261DEG 27KT 3974 10048

EV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
737 PM MDT SUN AUG 5 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 WSW WINONA            39.01N 101.39W
08/05/2018  M80 MPH          LOGAN              KS   MESONET

            MEASURED IN MCALLASTER.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
910 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

KSZ015-029-060230-
Gove KS-Sheridan KS-
910 PM CDT SUN AUG 5 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHERIDAN AND
NORTHERN GOVE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 910 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Grinnell, moving east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grainfield, Grinnell, Gove, Park and Angelus.

This includes Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 81 and
105.

LAT...LON 3902 10077 3919 10069 3911 10026 3886 10038
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 290DEG 42KT 3908 10064

EV