Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
420 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 101 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

Latest upper air analysis and satellite imagery shows the ridge
centered over the Desert Southwest. Rounding the ridge were
numerous short wave troughs. Accompanying one of these troughs
was a corridor of stratocumulus which will provide some shade to
the eastern portion of the forecast area this afternoon.

For the rest of the afternoon an upper level short wave trough
will deepen over Central Colorado, extending into Kit Carson and
Cheyenne Counties. There should be isolated to scattered storm
activity with this trough. Am not expecting any severe
thunderstorms due to the trough coming through in the early
evening when the peak heating has long since ended. Any storm
activity will be south of Cheyenne County by 9 PM MT.

Tonight lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night as WAA
moves into the forecast area with the southerly winds.

Thursday there will be no change in the weather pattern. With a
dry environment over the forecast area, am not expecting any storm
activity to occur. Highs will warm into the 90s, the first time in
roughly a week.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

A longwave upper-level trough over the eastern United States this
week will continue to lift out of the Mississippi River Valley and
progress eastward toward New England. Meanwhile, the upper-level
ridge will persist in the southwest United States for the
foreseeable future. This will lead to generally weak northerly upper-
level flow over the Central High Plains, and generally sunny
conditions, until Friday. High and low temperatures are expected to
warm back up into the low 90s and mid 60s, respectively. These
temperatures are expected to persist through the end of the forecast
period next Wednesday.

Starting Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances come back into the
picture for the Tri-State Region. A pronounced shortwave trough will
come off the Rocky Mountains and provide ample forcing for ascent
Friday afternoon and evening, despite weaker upper-level flow. With
the passing of this feature, chances for showers and thunderstorms
will generally be over 50% for almost all of the area at some point
Friday evening. It is not yet known for sure if there will be any
severe weather associated with this on Friday, but the small
possibility remains.

Heading into the weekend, a jet streak formed between an incoming
upper-level trough in the Pacific Northwest and the persistent ridge
in the southwest United States will promote northwest flow aloft and
the potential for more shortwave troughs which may enhance the
chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. Rain
chances are spottier than Friday however, with chances generally
around 20-30% for the Tri-State Region both Saturday and Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Beginning on Monday this coming week, the ridge over the southwest
United States will strengthen and expand northward. Upper-level flow
will generally be from the north-northwest at this time, with little
expected forced ascent from the large scale subsidence associated
with the ridge. Despite this, shortwave upper-level troughs and
relatively warm, moist air could locally lead to some showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening for the Central High
Plains Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 415 PM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Both terminals will see a light south to southeast wind under
10kts through the night with a slowly increase toward 12kts from
the south at KGLD at the end of the period. Only some mid and high
level clouds expected.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1050 AM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021700-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1050 AM MDT Wed Aug 1 2018 /1150 AM CDT Wed Aug 1 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms may move across portions of Kit
Carson and Cheyenne Counties in East Central Colorado between 5 PM
MDT and 9 PM MDT. Any severe thunderstorms which develop should
remain southwest of these counties.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed at this time.

JTL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
732 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

COZ091-020200-
Kit Carson County CO-
732 PM MDT WED AUG 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

At 731 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Seibert, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seibert and Vona.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 401 and
414.

LAT...LON 3932 10302 3938 10289 3920 10252 3908 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 0131Z 302DEG 21KT 3927 10283

DDT