Alert archive / Colorado / Special Weather Statements in 2018
Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS
NWS Goodland, KS issued this special weather statement at Jul 12, 2018, 7:13 PM MDT for Kit Carson County, Colorado. It was in force for 17 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 12, 2018, 7:13 PM MDT (01:13 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 12, 2018, 7:30 PM MDT
- In force
- 17 min
- Issued by
- NWS Goodland, KS
County Kit Carson County, CO
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:13 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 00:00Z, 1.2 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 20 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -88 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1897 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 6 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -31 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
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</html>What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 12, 5:38 PM MDT, 1 hour 35 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 5:38 PM MDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 538 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 143 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 Main issues of concern will be the chance of thunderstorms and how much rainfall and severe weather these storms will produce. Nearly stationary front just to the northwest of our area with surface/lee trough just to our west. Small scale mid level circulation is just to our west with weak but diffluent flow over the area as well. Good lapse rates also reside over the area. Analysis and satellite show a moist air mass through 500 mb over the entire area. Thunderstorms have begun to develop over the western portion of the area where all the best of the above parameters overlap. Expect development to continue with coverage increasing over the northern and western areas. Expect this area to ever so slowly work its way across the area through the night. Do not expect these storms to completely go away due to the continued weak lift and instability in place. Highest pops look to remain over the western and northern portions of the area. Dcape is currently 1000 and above, especially over the western half of the area. Damaging winds are occurring with storms to our west. So have confidence that damaging winds will be the main threat. Per reasoning above combined with slow storm movement and that movement parallel to the front, expect training and locally heavy rainfall. For Friday, forecast is a little more problematic due to uncertainty of the overnight and early morning convection/mesoscale affects will have on the environment. Weak shortwave trough, mesoscale boundaries, low level upslope flow, and a front moving in will keep thunderstorms going through the day. There should be ongoing storms as the day begins. The coverage should increase in coverage through the day due to increasing instability and lift. The risk for severe looks to be a little less but still possible. The PWs remain the same, and could once again have locally heavy rainfall possible, especially for the southeast half of the area. Of minor note, there looks to be more factors in place to limit the warming that will occur. Did lower high temperatures but these temperatures could still be lowered more. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 105 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 Friday night through Saturday night...latest 12z guidance northeast to southwest oriented axis of moisture in the 700-500mb layer from Haigler to Flagler and Kit Carson eastward supporting slight chance to chance pops for thunderstorms through midnight slowly moving east after midnight and out of the area by sunrise. Plenty of moisture per precipitable water forecasts (1.5 to 2 inches) so locally heavy rainfall possible. Low clouds and some fog a few hours before sunrise through mid morning per model boundary layer humidity and visibility forecasts. By late afternoon a sunny to mostly sunny sky expected. A dry forecast continues through Saturday night. Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night in the 60s, could see a 70 degree reading around Hill City. High temperatures Saturday in the upper 80s to low 90s. Sunday...this forecast is weighted toward the GFS which brings a east to northeast winds into the area during the day along with increasing moisture in the 850-500mb column from northwest to southeast. The NAM keeps the moisture axis generally along and west of the CO/KS border during the day. Precipitation chances look to be spotty at this point. Low to medium confidence in afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s. If the NAM verifies temperatures will be about 5F warmer putting a few locations at 100 degrees. Thunderstorm chances continue overnight with lows in the 60s. Monday...forecast area under northwest flow aloft with the GFS bringing another batch of moisture through the area during the night where highest pops are advertised, otherwise spotty chances. Precipitable water remains in the 1.5 to 2 inch range supporting a threat for locally heavy rainfall. An easterly component to the sfc wind and cooler 850mb temperatures support highs generally in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees. Low temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Tuesday through Thursday...GFS and ECMWF eventually agree on upper level ridging to rebuild over Colorado and Utah with our area under northwest flow aloft. Timing of weather disturbances too difficult to pinpoint but at least slight chance to low chance pops through the period. Afternoon temperatures generally in the mid 80s to low 90s each day with lows generally in the 60s. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening) Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main focus will be the scattered thunderstorm activity that will progress east tonight. The primary threat with these storms will be thunderstorm wind gusts. KMCK could be at risk for storms moving near the site after 6z. Friday the thunderstorm risk will be southeast of the sites, except for a few hours in the afternoon for KMCK. && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. CO...NONE. NE...NONE. && SHORT TERM...BULLER LONG TERM...99 AVIATION...JTL
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 10:46 AM MDT, 8 hours 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Goodland KS 1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-131200- Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins- Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove- Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow- 1046 AM MDT Thu Jul 12 2018 /1146 AM CDT Thu Jul 12 2018/ This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska... northwest Kansas and east central Colorado. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... Scattered thunderstorms will develop along and west of the Colorado border this afternoon and slowly move east through the rest of the night. A few of these storms become severe along and west of a line from Burlington to Saint Francis to Benkelman. The main severe threat will be damaging winds. A more widespread threat with these storms will be locally heavy rainfall which could cause flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly Friday afternoon and evening across much of the area. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rainfall will also be possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be required this afternoon.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 4:18 PM MDT, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 418 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 COZ091-092-122245- Kit Carson County CO-Cheyenne County CO- 418 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 445 PM MDT... At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18 miles south of Vona, or 18 miles south of Seibert, moving north at 10 mph. Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of north central Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east central Colorado. LAT...LON 3895 10266 3897 10289 3914 10291 3911 10259 TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 184DEG 10KT 3904 10278 JRM
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 6:12 PM MDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
612 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018
COZ090-130030-
Yuma County CO-
612 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY UNTIL
630 PM MDT...
At 611 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northwest of Bonny Reservoir, moving northeast at 20 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Idalia and Vernon.
This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 208 and 210, and
between mile markers 212 and 233.
LAT...LON 3968 10206 3957 10224 3975 10245 3996 10228
3981 10206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0011Z 220DEG 19KT 3968 10228
LundquistSpecial weather statement, Jul 12, 6:29 PM MDT, 44 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 629 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 COZ090-091-130045- Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO- 629 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA AND NORTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT... At 629 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16 miles north of Stratton, moving northeast at 20 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Kirk. LAT...LON 3942 10258 3956 10273 3976 10250 3955 10228 TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 230DEG 17KT 3954 10258 Lundquist
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 6:49 PM MDT, 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 649 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 COZ090-091-130115- Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO- 649 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL YUMA AND NORTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT... At 649 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18 miles east of Cope, or 18 miles north of Stratton, moving northeast at 20 mph. Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Kirk. LAT...LON 3942 10254 3951 10272 3976 10254 3962 10225 TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 210DEG 18KT 3957 10253 Lundquist
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 7:07 PM MDT, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 707 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 COZ091-130130- Kit Carson County CO- 707 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM MDT... At 707 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4 miles south of Vona, or 7 miles southwest of Stratton, moving north at 40 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Stratton and Vona. This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 409 and 425. LAT...LON 3906 10265 3913 10286 3944 10275 3935 10244 TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 198DEG 36KT 3923 10272 Lundquist
Special weather statement, Jul 12, 7:13 PM MDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Goodland KS 713 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 COZ091-130130- Kit Carson County CO- 713 PM MDT THU JUL 12 2018 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM MDT... At 707 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4 miles south of Vona, or 7 miles southwest of Stratton, moving north at 40 mph. Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm. A second strong thunderstorm was located near Stratton, also moving northeast. This storm will be capable of producing hail up to nickel size. Locations impacted include... Stratton and Vona. This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 409 and 425. LAT...LON 3906 10265 3913 10286 3944 10275 3935 10244 TIME...MOT...LOC 0107Z 198DEG 36KT 3923 10272 Lundquist
The office that day
Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 12, 6:12 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | GLD | Yuma | 18 min |
| Jul 12, 6:29 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | GLD | Kit Carson | 16 min |
| Jul 12, 6:49 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | GLD | Kit Carson | 26 min |
| Jul 12, 7:07 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | GLD | Kit Carson | 23 min |
| Jul 12, 7:22 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GLD | Kit Carson, Yuma | 39 min |
Nearby
Special Weather Statements in Colorado, 2018Every special weather statement in 2018
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.