Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
544 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Overview: An upper level low (currently centered invof the WY/NE
border) will gradually track east across Nebraska through Monday.
A potent shortwave rounding the base of the upper low in northern
CO will eject ENE onto the High Plains this afternoon and evening.

Through Tonight: Challenging forecast. Morning convection and
cloud cover have significantly impeded insolation in northwest KS,
particularly along and north of I-70 where elevated convection
has persisted. Low-level height/wind fields were altered by a
large MCS that propagated from KS into OK earlier today --
delaying the onset of southerly return flow /low-level moisture
advection/ into western Kansas. As a result, the greatest severe
weather potential has been shunted south of the GLD county warning
area. In spite of a relatively marginal thermodynamic
environment, forcing attendant the shortwave ejecting ENE from
Colorado onto the High Plains will allow widespread convection to
develop across the Tri-State area this aft/eve and may support an
isolated potential for severe hail/wind late this afternoon --
particularly along and south of Highway 40. Convection should grow
upscale and propagate S/SE of the region this evening - however,
isolated convection associated with the upper low will remain
possible north of I-70 during the overnight hours.

Monday/Monday night: Expect dry conditions to prevail over most
(if not all) of the area in association with subsidence in the
wake of the upper low progressing slowly east across Nebraska.
Isolated convection cannot be entirely ruled out in southwest
Nebraska Monday afternoon -- depending on the precise evolution
of the upper low. Expect highs in the low/mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Not much has change in the extended over the past couple of days.
The models are still showing the local area under the influence of
an upper-level ridge for most of the period. This will produce
mostly dry conditions with above normal high temperatures. The next
change for precipitation looks to be Saturday as an upper level
trough deepens over the western U.S. This puts our local area under
southwesterly flow aloft. This will result in a lee side low trying
to development off the front range. It is still too early to tell if
this will pan out.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 545 PM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Aside from gusty/erratic winds in thunderstorms affecting the GLD
terminal through 01-03Z this evening, expect light/variable winds
at both terminals this evening/overnight. A thunderstorm cannot
be ruled out at the MCK terminal this evening, though confidence
is low. VFR conditions are expected to prevail from sunrise
onward. Expect winds to become NW/WNW at 15-20 knots at both
terminals after sunrise Monday morning and persist at that
magnitude through the day, with gusts up to 30 knots possible at
the MCK terminal.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1055 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251700-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1055 AM MDT Sun Jun 24 2018 /1155 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will re-develop across the Tri-
State area today. Isolated storms may become severe, with a primary
threat of quarter to golfball size hail and damaging wind gusts up to
65 mph. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also
be possible, particularly in areas where heavy rain fell during the
past 24 hours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required

Vincent

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
558 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     COLBY                   39.39N 101.05W
06/24/2018  M52 MPH          THOMAS             KS   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
610 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE OAKLEY            39.12N 100.82W
06/24/2018  E60 MPH          LOGAN              KS   AWOS

&&

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
611 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ESE OAKLEY            39.12N 100.82W
06/24/2018  M68 MPH          LOGAN              KS   AWOS

            PEAK GUST SO FAR.

&&

JTL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 W MONUMENT            39.10N 101.02W
06/24/2018  M63 MPH          LOGAN              KS   MESONET

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
619 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND GST     GRINNELL                39.13N 100.63W
06/24/2018  M52 MPH          GOVE               KS   MESONET

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
621 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

KSZ028-041-042-250045-
Wichita KS-Greeley KS-Logan KS-
621 PM MDT SUN JUN 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WICHITA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOGAN AND
GREELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM MDT/745 PM CDT/...

At 621 PM MDT/721 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 17 miles southeast of
Wallace to 6 miles northwest of Leoti to 20 miles southeast of
Tribune. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Leoti, Tribune, Horace, Lydia, Selkirk and Marienthal.

LAT...LON 3852 10196 3868 10200 3872 10093 3870 10094
      3870 10113 3826 10113 3826 10195
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 271DEG 32KT 3869 10142 3855 10144 3824 10152