Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Goodland, KS

324 
WWUS53 KGLD 242216
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
416 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

COC017-063-242230-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-180524T2230Z/
Cheyenne CO-Kit Carson CO-
416 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE AND SOUTH CENTRAL KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

At 416 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 12 miles north of
Cheyenne Wells, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northeastern Cheyenne and south central Kit Carson Counties in east
central Colorado.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 155 and 171.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3895 10249 3904 10248 3909 10234 3903 10213
      3886 10231
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 293DEG 12KT 3899 10233 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
210 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Tonight...mid level moisture will interact with a frontal boundary
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening with
some of the storms becoming severe generally south and east of a
line from Norton to Goodland and Flagler. Another disturbance moves
out of southeast Wyoming into the McCook and Norton areas close to
midnight producing a small batch of possible severe storms.
Precipitation should come to an end by early morning Friday. Low
temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado
to the mid 50s to low 60s east of the CO/KS border.

Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging builds over the area ahead
of a low pressure system off the central California coast. 850mb
temperatures and bias corrected grids support highs in the mid 80s
to near 90 in far eastern Colorado with low to mid 90s east of the
CO/KS border. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. No
precipitation is expected.

Saturday-Saturday night...the upper ridge axis is firmly over the
area during the day before slowly moving east during the night
putting the forecast area under southwest flow aloft ahead of a low
pressure center over Nevada and Utah. 850mb temperatures warm
another 2F to 6F across the area and when combined with better
performing bias grids produce highs in the low to upper 90s across
the area. Along and west of the CO/KS border southeast winds look to
become breezy with gusts 30 to 35 mph possible. Low temperatures
range from the mid 50s to low 60s in far eastern Colorado with mid
60s east of the state line.

Sunday...models continue to advertise a weather disturbance moving
north-northeast into the area ahead of upper low to our west. This
continues to support a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Breezy
southeast winds again with highs in the mid/upper 80s west to low
90s east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Southwest flow prevails at the start of the period, with an upper
low centered over eastern Nevada and western Utah. This low pushes
northeast into the northern Plains on Monday and Tuesday, before
traveling along the Canadian border towards the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday.

As this disturbance advances, a few waves pass over the region and
surface lee side troughing persists near the Colorado border through
midweek. With this set up, periodic showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Sunday night through Wednesday. There is a potential for
severe thunderstorms during this timeframe with decent moisture,
sufficient shear, and good instability in place. Will be able to
resolve details including location and timing closer to next week as
guidance improves.

Upper ridging begins to develop across the High Plains late
Wednesday into Thursday. Could still see some precipitation chances
on Thursday before the ridge amplifies on Friday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, with highs in the
80s to low 90s and lows in the 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Northwest to
northeast winds expected through about 23z before becoming
variable as thunderstorms possibly impact the wind field. After
06z winds begin from the south under 10kts then slowly veer to the
west by 12z and north by 17z. Currently have VCTS in the 22z-00z
timeframe as a cold front initiates thunderstorm development. Its
possible that the terminal could be impacted with large hail and
damaging winds the primary threats during this time frame.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A south wind
under 10kts at taf issuance will become variable as a cold front
moves in. After 06z winds begin from the southwest under 10kts
then slowly veer to the southwest and west by 14z. Currently have
thunderstorms out of the forecast but will need to watch the
02z-04z timeframe as a few models bring thunderstorms through the
terminal from the northwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-251200-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1120 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018 /1220 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk for strong and severe thunderstorms from mid
afternoon through mid evening for areas generally along and south of
a line from McCook Nebraska to Goodland Kansas to Flagler Colorado.
The storms should initially favor large hail to the size of
golfballs, damaging winds to 65 mph and possibly a tornado through
late afternoon. For the early to mid evening hours the storms are
then expected to transition into an organized cluster capable of
producing strong outflow winds to 65 mph which may produce some
blowing dust and reduced visibilities. They will also be capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall as they move east.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed from 3 PM MDT (4 PM CDT) through 10
PM MDT (11 PM CDT).

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
303 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

COZ092-242115-
Cheyenne County CO-
303 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 303 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Haswell, or 38 miles west of Cheyenne Wells,
moving southeast at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3869 10316 3877 10317 3878 10316
      3862 10291 3861 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2103Z 317DEG 47KT 3862 10301

TL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
316 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

COZ092-242130-
Cheyenne County CO-
316 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 316 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Haswell, or 39 miles west of Cheyenne Wells,
moving southeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3869 10317 3869 10316 3879 10317 3879 10316
      3862 10291 3861 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 308DEG 17KT 3865 10306

TL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
329 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

COZ092-242145-
Cheyenne County CO-
329 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 345 PM MDT...

At 328 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles northeast of Haswell, or 39 miles west of Cheyenne Wells,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern
Cheyenne County in east central Colorado.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3869 10310 3874 10296 3866 10278 3861 10282
      3861 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 304DEG 13KT 3864 10304

TL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
344 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

COZ092-242200-
Cheyenne County CO-
344 PM MDT THU MAY 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 344 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Kit Carson, or 14 miles southwest of Cheyenne
Wells, moving east at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cheyenne Wells, Kit Carson and Firstview.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 145 and 154.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3873 10302 3887 10262 3888 10234 3879 10228
      3861 10248 3861 10314
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 275DEG 34KT 3868 10255

TL