Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Goodland, KS

638 
WWUS53 KGLD 050049
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
649 PM MDT TUE SEP 4 2018

KSC023-181-050059-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0404.000000T0000Z-180905T0115Z/
Cheyenne KS-Sherman KS-
649 PM MDT TUE SEP 4 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND
NORTH CENTRAL SHERMAN COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3965 10197 3978 10181 3957 10144 3935 10184
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 314DEG 12KT 3961 10175 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM MDT Tue Sep 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Little has changed from previous thinking. Convection has
initiated along the prefrontal trough in northeast Colorado as
well as in an area of surface convergence in the north central
part of the forecast area. Severe parameters are only marginally
supportive so any threat of wind/hail will be limited to the late
afternoon and early evening hours, before transitioning to a
heavy rain and flash flood threat due to precipitable water values
in excess of one inch and up to two inches in the far east
combined with slow storm motions and some training. Storms will
persist well into the overnight hours as a surface cold front
slowly moves through the region. Areas of fog will likely develop
once again with low level moisture/surface cooling behind the
front/light winds.

Wednesday will be cool and cloudy with rain chances continuing.
However, trend will be for the heavy precipitation axis to move
east and south of the area with the front, so do not think there
will be a flash flood threat on Wednesday. Given cooler
temperatures and clouds, instability will be quite limited, so
despite some decent post frontal shear do not anticipate severe
storms either. High temperatures will only be in the upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 211 PM MDT Tue Sep 4 2018

A cold front moving through the region Wednesday will give us a
chance for a few showers and thunderstorms over the CWA.  A few
storms could linger into Thursday morning.

A mid level trough will move through the CWA Thursday and the cold
front will push out of the region.  High temperatures will be below
normal, only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A weak ridge sets up over the central CONUS Friday.  Precipitation
chances will diminish through the afternoon and evening hours.
Friday will begin a gradual warming trend with highs returning to
near normal, in the mid 80s, on Sunday.

Westerly flow to begin the week will allow temperatures to remain
warm in the 80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Tue Sep 4 2018

Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along and
north of a cold front which will be located roughly from McCook to
Goodland. As a result, both terminals may see showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours. Brief
gusty winds may accompany stronger storms. Overnight, low ceilings
and areas of fog will develop, with only gradual improvement
through Wednesday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-029-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday
     morning for NEZ080-081.

&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
601 PM MDT Tue Sep 4 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-060015-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
601 PM MDT Tue Sep 4 2018 /701 PM CDT Tue Sep 4 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

A brief severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out this evening.

A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through sunrise Wednesday
morning for portions of northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska,
primarily east of Highway 27.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Locally heavy rainfall will remain possible in association with
slow moving thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
712 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

KSZ001-050030-
Cheyenne KS-
712 PM CDT TUE SEP 4 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 712 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southwest of St. Francis, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3970 10162 3957 10182 3957 10198 3968 10203
      3981 10187
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 313DEG 14KT 3970 10189

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