Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Goodland, KS

818 
WWUS53 KGLD 262335
SVSGLD

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
635 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2018

NEC057-262344-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-180726T2345Z/
Dundy NE-
635 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2018

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL DUNDY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3983 10157 3976 10183 3983 10182 3992 10182
      3998 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 335DEG 31KT 3976 10175 

$$

KSC023-262345-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0302.000000T0000Z-180726T2345Z/
Cheyenne KS-
635 PM CDT THU JUL 26 2018

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS...

At 634 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near St. Francis,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and ping pong ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect 
         considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles. 
         Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

Locations impacted include...
St. Francis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3983 10157 3976 10183 3983 10182 3992 10182
      3998 10171
TIME...MOT...LOC 2334Z 335DEG 31KT 3976 10175 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...80MPH
 
$$

JN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Northwest flow continues over the High Plains over a broad, but
weak, southeasterly low level flow. The directional shear is
resulting in rather large deep layer shear values of 50kts this
afternoon, which combined with weak to moderate instability has
resulted in an environment favorable for rotating updrafts.
Moisture is also plentiful, with precipitable water values of
1-1.5 inches and surface dew points in the 60s. Perhaps the one
lacking ingredient for more widespread convection is lift, with
only the hint of shortwave trough embedded in the northwest flow.
There is the tail end of an old front/outflow boundary located
north to south in northwest Colorado which may be a focus for
convection. Expect storms to continue to increase in coverage this
afternoon and evening as the upper shortwave moves across. HRRR
continues to suggest an MCS/thunderstorm cluster moving south out
of Nebraska and along the Colorado/Kansas border area late tonight
and during the overnight, possible posing a damaging wind gust
threat in those areas. Storm motions are rather fast at around
15kt and any right movers at 20-30kts, so despite the high
moisture not anticipating a flash flood threat tonight. As has
been the case the last few mornings, patchy dense fog will develop
overnight and persist into early Friday morning before
dissipating.

Not much changes for the general set up on Friday afternoon.
Another weak shortwave trough comes through in the northwest flow,
with impressive deep layer shear and even more instability than
today. Scattered afternoon storms will develop, some severe, with
large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Better chances
will occur Friday evening with SPC upgrading to an enhanced risk
(see Long Term section). High temperatures on Friday will be in
the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

At the start of the long term, an upper high continues over the
desert southwest with troughing and an upper low pressure system
extending from southeastern Canada into the eastern CONUS. Between
these two features, fast northwest flow aloft is expected over
the tri-state region.

Friday evening and overnight appears to be an interesting period. A
weak shortwave passing through the northwest flow and a surface
boundary coming down from Nebraska will aid in the development of
thunderstorms. With near 2500 J/kg of CAPE, ample shear of 50 knots
or greater, steep lapse rates and good moisture in place, severe
thunderstorms are expected. Exact locations are still in question.
However, it appears that storms should fire over higher terrain west-
northwest of the CWA during the afternoon hours, with shear
supporting supercell development. Heading into the evening and
overnight, storms should congeal into a line, traveling
southeastward across the region. The main threats will be damaging
winds and large hail. Guidance including PWATS of 1 to 2 inches
suggest that heavy rainfall will be a concern as well.

A similar pattern remains in place through the weekend and unsettled
weather is anticipated to continue. Additional disturbances will
pass through the northwest flow (including a strong shortwave late
Sunday), generating storm chances through Monday morning. Severe
storms cannot be ruled out on Saturday and Sunday depending on how
well the lower levels recover from the previous day's convection.
Will continue to monitor in the coming days. Drier air and
surface high pressure move into the area on Monday, resulting in a
dry forecast through Thursday.

High temperatures decrease from the 80s on Saturday to the mid 70s
to low 80s on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures increase thereafter,
reaching the low 90s on Thursday. Low temperatures range from the
mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 244 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

Widely scattered thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon
and evening hours, which may briefly impact either KGLD or KMCK
with reduced visibility, lowered ceilings and a few lightning
strikes. Given the scattered nature of the storms, difficult to
pin down exact timings, so used rather long period VCTS as
prevailing conditions. At KGLD, there is the possibility of an MCS
impacting the terminal late tonight and during the overnight with
a period of gusty winds. Overnight, expecting patchy fog and low
clouds to develop which may persist into Friday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
253 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-272100-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
253 PM MDT Thu Jul 26 2018 /353 PM CDT Thu Jul 26 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Widely scattered thunderstorms will develop across the area this
afternoon. Although coverage will be sparse, any storm that develops
has the potential of producing large hail and damaging winds.

Tonight, storms will increase in coverage, particularly across
northeast Colorado and adjacent areas of northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska. Some of these storms may be severe with damaging
winds gusts, large hail and locally heavy rainfall. The threat for
damaging wind gusts may continue into the overnight hours as the
storms merge into a cluster and move into west central Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across the region
Saturday afternoon with large hail and damaging winds as the main
threats. The better chance for severe thunderstorms will be Saturday
evening into the overnight hours, with damaging winds, large hail,
and heavy rainfall as hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
416 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

COZ091-262245-
Kit Carson County CO-
416 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM MDT...

At 416 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Seibert, moving south at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seibert and Vona.

This includes Interstate 70 in Colorado between mile markers 403 and
414.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
east central Colorado.

LAT...LON 3947 10295 3951 10283 3931 10262 3922 10292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2216Z 341DEG 19KT 3943 10287

JN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ENE WRAY              39.97N 102.21W
07/26/2018  E60 MPH          YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH WINDS WITH QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

&&

SJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
448 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             SEIBERT                 39.30N 102.87W
07/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       KIT CARSON         CO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED VIA IMAGE ON
            TWITTER.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
452 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 PM     HAIL             WRAY                    40.08N 102.23W
07/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED VIA IMAGE ON
            FACEBOOK.

&&

JRP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
500 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 ENE WRAY              40.08N 102.21W
07/26/2018                   YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STREETS ARE FLOODED OUT IN WRAY WITH
            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL.

&&

SJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
510 PM MDT THU JUL 26 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     HAIL             5 SW WRAY               40.03N 102.30W
07/26/2018  E1.00 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

&&

SJS