Severe Thunderstorm Warning 279, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
556 PM MDT Sun Jul 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Overview: The Tri-State area remains situated on the N/NE
periphery of an upper level ridge (centered invof New Mexico) at
the southern fringe of W-NW flow aloft. Forecast considerations
and expectations are essentially the same as yesterday.

Today-Tonight: Small amplitude perturbations on/near the
tropopause (150-175 mb level) will continue to round the northern
periphery of the ridge from the Desert SW/4-Corners region into
portions of the Rockies and High Plains this afternoon through
tonight -- though the influence of these high altitude waves
cannot be ascertained with much confidence -- and mid-level
features (e.g. MCVs) generated by persistent upstream convection
are more likely to influence convective evolution. Low-level
forcing will remain confined to shallow convergence invof a weak
SFC-H85 trough in the lee of the Rockies. 18Z HRRR and 12Z NAM
NEST simulated reflectivity forecasts suggest a familiar scenario
in which scattered upstream convection grows upscale into loosely
organized clusters that slowly propagate E/SE into eastern CO and
far western KS this evening (00-08Z). Effective deep-layer shear
on the order of 25-30 knots, moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) and
weak forcing suggest organization will primarily be multicellular
in nature. A few storms will be capable of producing brief/sporadic
downbursts in eastern CO between 6-10 pm MDT. Locally heavy
rainfall and isolated flash flooding will certainly remain
possible (primarily in eastern CO) given weak steering flow
and above normal PWAT values (1.2" to 1.4"). Expect convection to
wane by midnight -- though there is a slim chance that upstream
convection in SD/NE may propagate southward into portions of
north-central and northwest KS between 08-15Z Monday morning.

Monday-Monday night: There will be relatively little change in
the synoptic pattern, however, with ongoing convection possible
(perhaps likely) over and upstream of the Tri-State area Monday
morning, confidence remains very low w/regard to convective
evolution Monday aft/eve into Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 116 PM MDT Sun Jul 22 2018

Upper high pressure remains centered over the Four Corners region on
Tuesday with ridging across the western half of the country. To the
east, a trough stretches over the eastern CONUS, placing the High
Plains under northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, an upper closed low
spins over south central Canada. Throughout the day, surface high
pressure slides east of the High Plains, allowing moisture to filter
back into the area. This enables thunderstorm chances to return to
the forecast Tuesday night as a shortwave passes through.

A cold front enters the High Plains midweek and stalls, providing a
focus for storm development. As the week progresses, the upper low
in Canada pushes southeast into the Upper Midwest and ridging
retrogrades towards the west coast. Northwest flow prevails through
the end of the weekend, and multiple disturbances generate shower
and thunderstorm chances throughout the remainder of the long term
period.

Overall, wet and cooler conditions are anticipated with ample
moisture in place. Will definitely need to keep an eye on the
potential for heavy rainfall during this timeframe. High
temperatures rise from the 80s on Tuesday to the upper 80s/low 90s
on Wednesday before falling into the upper 70s/low 80s on Thursday
and Friday. The weekend looks a tad warmer with highs in the 80s
across the region. Low temperatures range from the upper 50s to mid
60s throughout the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 529 PM MDT Sun Jul 22 2018

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period at GLD.
Isolated thunderstorms at GLD after 02Z will become more numerous
between 04Z-06Z. Thunderstorms will decrease in coverage with a
few storms persisting through the early morning hours. Light winds
are expected to turn to the north and become gusty after 18Z.

VFR conditions are expected through the 00Z TAF period at MCK with
isolated storm possible after 04Z through the early morning hours
on Monday. Light winds are expected to turn to the north and
become gusty after 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1031 AM MDT Sun Jul 22 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231645-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1031 AM MDT Sun Jul 22 2018 /1131 AM CDT Sun Jul 22 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop in the mountains
and foothills of Colorado this afternoon and track slowly east into
extreme western Kansas this evening and tonight. A few storms may
briefly become severe, with a primary threat of damaging winds. The
potential for isolated severe weather will be greatest along and
west of Highway 27 between 6 PM and 10 PM MDT this evening. Locally
heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will also be possible,
primarily along and west of Highway 27.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will affect portions of the Tri-State area
during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday through Saturday.
A few severe storms capable of producing damaging winds will be
possible each day. Heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will
also remain possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Vincent

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
801 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

COZ090-KSZ001-230215-
Yuma County CO-Cheyenne KS-
801 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN
NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 815 PM MDT/915 PM CDT/...

At 801 PM MDT/901 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 12 miles south of Haigler, or 13 miles northwest of St.
Francis, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Beecher Island.

LAT...LON 3992 10219 3996 10198 3979 10180 3970 10210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 319DEG 20KT 3985 10203

024

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
807 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

NEZ079-230215-
Dundy NE-
807 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN DUNDY COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM MDT...

At 807 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles south of Lamar, or 19 miles northeast of Wray, moving southeast
at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern Dundy
County.

LAT...LON 4025 10170 4008 10196 4019 10205 4035 10205
      4035 10185
TIME...MOT...LOC 0207Z 327DEG 17KT 4031 10199

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
817 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             10 NW SAINT FRANCIS     39.87N 101.94W
07/22/2018  E1.50 INCH       CHEYENNE           KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED VIA FACEBOOK HAIL UP TO 1.5
            INCHES.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
837 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

COZ090-091-230300-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-
837 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA AND
NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM MDT...

At 837 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Bonny Reservoir, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bonny Reservoir, Hale and Idalia.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 199 and 219.

LAT...LON 3976 10226 3960 10205 3958 10205 3942 10230
      3964 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 321DEG 14KT 3965 10232

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
913 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     HAIL             4 SE WRAY               40.04N 102.17W
07/22/2018  E1.50 INCH       YUMA               CO   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT VIA FACEBOOK.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
947 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

COZ090-091-KSZ001-013-230400-
Kit Carson County CO-Yuma County CO-Sherman KS-Cheyenne KS-
947 PM MDT SUN JUL 22 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN YUMA COUNTY IN
NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...NORTHEASTERN KIT CARSON COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN CHEYENNE AND NORTHWESTERN SHERMAN
COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS UNTIL 1000 PM MDT/1100 PM CDT/...

At 947 PM MDT/1047 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm over Bonny Reservoir, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bonny Reservoir and Hale.

This includes Highway 385 between mile markers 203 and 211.

LAT...LON 3960 10232 3971 10213 3954 10189 3937 10216
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 321DEG 20KT 3960 10217

024