Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
550 PM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 531 PM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Temperatures are decreasing and the Heat Advisory has been
cancelled.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 150 PM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018

Today/Tonight: Southwest flow aloft will gradually strengthen
over the region as an upper level trough progresses across the
Intermountain West and an upper level ridge progresses east of the
Mississippi. Expect temperatures this afternoon to be several
degrees cooler than yesterday via H5 height falls and increasing
mid/upper level cloud cover. As of 19Z, diurnal Cu has yet to
develop over the Tri-State area due to lingering MLCIN and,
perhaps, subsidence in the wake of a small amplitude shortwave
progressing northeast across central Nebraska. Convection
allowing models continue to indicate that updrafts will develop
mid/late afternoon invof a SSW-NNE oriented surface trough
(extending from southeast CO--northwest KS--southwest NE) as
lingering MLCIN erodes, the aforementioned subsidence recedes, and
low-level convergence strengthens. Expect convection to initially
develop invof the boundary in southeast CO and/or southwest KS
~21Z. Weak deep-layer shear suggests organization will be on the
multicellular portion of the spectrum. With steering flow from the
southwest (parallel to the initiating boundary), updrafts are
likely to interfere with one another as they 'unzip' downstream
(northeast) along the surface trough. Moderate instability,
40-50F dewpoint depressions and strong DCAPE suggest that the
primary severe threat will be occasional downbursts capable of
producing wind gusts in the 70-80 mph range. Quarter to golf ball
size hail sounds pretty reasonable given steep mid-level lapse
rates, moderate instability, and a multicellular mode -- though
the 'updraft interference factor' could mitigate the potential for
severe hail to some degree. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated
flash flooding will certainly be possible, given the setup. Expect
the greatest coverage between 22-04Z, decreasing rapidly
thereafter.

Saturday: Challenging forecast. Convective coverage, timing,
location will highly depend on the evolution of multiple small
amplitude features within the larger upper trough as it
progresses from the Intermountain West into the Rockies during the
day Sat. At this time, convective initiation appears most likely
to occur on the northwest periphery (cool side) of a lee cyclone in
northeast CO during the late afternoon hours (~00Z Sun).

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1233 PM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018

A longwave upper-level trough will pass over the GLD CWA this
weekend bringing with it relatively strong upper-level winds meaning
there will be some forcing for ascent and favorable vertical wind
shear. Breezy surface winds from the south will keep enough moisture
in the Tri-State region to provide some instability this weekend.
These two factors will keep the possibility for showers and
thunderstorms in the area through Sunday, especially in the
overnight hours according to model guidance.

Getting into next week, the upper-level trough will leave the GLD
vicinity and in its wake we are expecting relatively weak upper-
level and low-level winds setting in Tuesday and beyond. An
upper-level ridge will build across the southeast US early next
week, bringing with it generally warmer conditions for the CWA
with high temperatures climbing back into the mid 90s. However,
continued southerly flow could potentially provide enough
instability and some upper-level divergence will provide enough
forcing for ascent to keep evening and overnight showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast for early next week, although
relatively weak upper-level winds will limit how strong these
storms could become.

A deep upper-level trough will be developing over the Pacific
Northwest in the middle of next week, but the strong upper-level
ridging over the southern United States will keep that from
traversing the High Planes and from having a significant synoptic
effect on GLD weather. A very broad surface high situated over the
southeast United States will keep persistent warm and moist
southerly low-level flow across the southern Great Plains region up
through the Central High Plains, which will keep the chance for
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Thursday and
Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018

A line of thunderstorms is developing northeastward out of
southeast Colorado and is beginning to extend into far western
Kansas and is expected to continue developing northeastward
towards Nebraska.

VFR conditions will continue at MCK and GLD through the 00Z TAF
period. Thunderstorms are moving into the GLD area between 01Z-03Z
and will extend into the MCK area between 02-04Z before
dissipating and moving east through the remainder of the night.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LOCKHART
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...LOCKHART

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
745 AM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-301345-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
745 AM MDT Fri Jun 29 2018 /845 AM CDT Fri Jun 29 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A Heat advisory is in effect for Norton and Graham counties this
afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing 70 MPH wind gusts and
quarter to golf ball size hail be possible in northwest Kansas and
southwest Nebraska between 4 pm MDT this afternoon and 10 pm MDT this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding will
also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible late Saturday evening
into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Vincent

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2018

COZ092-300015-
Cheyenne County CO-
600 PM MDT FRI JUN 29 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO UNTIL 615 PM MDT...

At 559 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Kit Carson, or 31 miles west of Cheyenne Wells, moving
northeast at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kit Carson and Wild Horse.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3868 10293 3882 10308 3904 10284 3883 10262
TIME...MOT...LOC 2359Z 230DEG 26KT 3880 10294

Husted