Severe Thunderstorm Warning 189, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
320 PM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Through Tonight: Observational trends continue to indicate that
the most favorable insolation/low-level moisture will remain south
of I-70 in southwest KS this afternoon. With that in mind,
ongoing convection invof NWS Goodland is expected to propagate SSE
toward Wallace/ Logan/Gove/Greeley counties through 5 pm MDT.
Damaging winds up to 75 mph and reduced visibilities assoc/w
blowing dust will be the primary threat. In coordination with the
Storm Prediction Center, Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198 will remain
as-is for the NWS GLD county warning area. Expect convection to
decrease from NW-SE this evening as a shortwave trough progresses
east of the region.

Sat/Sat night: Subsidence/height rises in the wake of the shortwave
trough progressing east across the area tonight will result in
dry conditions on Saturday, with highs in the mid/upper 80s.
Isolated convection will be possible late Saturday evening an
amplifying upper trough digs SSE into the northern Rockies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018

A low pressure center (associated with a short-wave trough
extending southward from Montana to Arizona) will continue to
intensify, triggering leeside troughing which will aid in
creating a very unstable atmosphere ahead of an advancing cold
front. Severe thunderstorm activity appears likely on the 24th at
12z through the 25th at 06z. Sunday evening appears to be the most
intense time frame for the possibility of severe weather from
00Z- 06z. The pattern progresses and the low center will begin to
push along Monday around 15Z followed by a period of increasingly
higher pressure due to a long wave ride building in. Models are in
good agreement for this pattern (EC & GFS)throughout most of the
forecast period until Thursday at which point they begin to
diverge as far as placement of troughing over the Pacific coast
and ridging over the central plains.

Ridging aloft will begin to build in for the remainder of the
forecast period. As the ridge builds, temperatures will be in
the normal range of low to mid 80s, but become increasingly warmer
with drier conditions, into the mid 90s for the remainder of the
forecast period. The probability of precipitation does exist
Thursday as a result of diurnal heating. Models begin to diverge
Thursday and into Friday, leaving low confidence of predicting the
next weather phenomena.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1145 AM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018

Thunderstorms were already developing and intensifying in
northeast Colorado at 17Z. Activity is expected to grow upscale
and track ESE/SE through northwest Kansas this afternoon and will
affect the GLD terminal between 19-23Z. Large hail and surface
wind gusts up to 60 knots will be possible. Confidence is lower
that thunderstorms will affect the MCK terminal. Aside from
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail. Winds at the MCK terminal are expected to be
variable at 6-12 knots for the majority of the TAF period.
Initially south winds at GLD are expected to become variable at
6-12 knots after thunderstorms this evening/tonight.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...SANDERSON
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1234 PM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231845-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
1234 PM MDT Fri Jun 22 2018 /134 PM CDT Fri Jun 22 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198 is in effect until 8 pm MDT /9 pm
CDT/ this evening for portions of the Tri-State area...

Thunderstorms in northeast Colorado will track southeast through
northwest Kansas this afternoon and early this evening. These storms
will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and
a few instances of golf ball size hail. Locally heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding cannot be ruled out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

...Enhanced Risk for Severe Thunderstorms on Sunday...

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging
winds will be possible across much of the Tri-State area Sunday
afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding
will also be possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Vincent

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