Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Goodland, KS

445 
WWUS83 KGLD 041748
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1148 AM MDT Wed Apr 4 2018

COZ252-KSZ004-015-016-028-029-042-050100-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0016.180404T1800Z-180405T0100Z/
Yuma-Norton-Sheridan-Graham-Logan-Gove-Wichita-
1148 AM MDT Wed Apr 4 2018 /1248 PM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018/

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 004...015...016...028...029...042 AND 252...

* Affected Area...In Colorado...Fire Weather Zone 252 Yuma. In 
  Kansas...Fire Weather Zone 004 Norton...Fire Weather Zone 015 
  Sheridan...Fire Weather Zone 016 Graham...Fire Weather Zone 
  028 Logan...Fire Weather Zone 029 Gove and Fire Weather Zone 
  042 Wichita.

* Winds...Southwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph.

* Relative Humidity...As low as 13 percent.

* Temperatures...In the lower 60s.

* Impacts...Any fires that start will have extreme fire behavior 
  and spread rapidly. Outdoor burning is not advised.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are expected. A combination of strong winds, low relative
humidity, and warm temperatures will contribute to extreme fire
behavior.

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now...or are imminent. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and warm temperatures can
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$

For more information from NOAA/National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gld

006 
WWUS83 KGLD 050101
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
701 PM MDT Wed Apr 4 2018



COZ252-KSZ004-015-016-028-029-042-050215-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-180405T0100Z/
Yuma-Norton-Sheridan-Graham-Logan-Gove-Wichita-
701 PM MDT Wed Apr 4 2018 /801 PM CDT Wed Apr 4 2018/

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 
004...015...016...028...029...042 AND 252...

The fire danger will subside as relative humidity values 
increase and winds become light overnight.

$$

For more information from NOAA/National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/gld

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1125 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 603 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Red Flag Warning has expired. Winds are diminish and relative
humidity is recovering across the warned area so the hazard
product was no longer needed.

A fire weather watch remains in effect for portions of the area
tomorrow. Winds remain the primary issue when it comes to forecast
confidence. Will need to monitor trends and latest guidance before
making a decision on what to do with the watch, likely done after
midnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Winds will continue to gradually subside this afternoon, with a
few gusts of up to 45 mph possible south of I70 through sunset.
Blowing dust has ended.

Tonight, clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to
drop into the upper teens to middle 20s, coldest in the Mccook to
Hill City area.

Winds will increase again early Wednesday morning, this time from
the south to southwest, as pressure gradient tightens between
departing high to the east and deepening trough in eastern
Colorado, then winds turn more northwesterly in the afternoon as
the trough migrates into northwest Kansas. Due to downslope
component in the winds, have leaned towards the warmer guidance
for high temperatures, and may need to add a few degrees.

There will be fire weather concerns in two areas on Wednesday: in
the southeast, from Leoti to Norton and east, gusty southwest
winds and low humidity will result in critical to near critical
conditions; and in the northwest, from Yuma County into Dundy
County, gusty northwest winds behind the trough and low humidity
will do the same. Wind speeds are marginal in both areas, so
confidence is somewhat lacking for a warning, but felt the threat
was enough to go ahead and issue a watch for those two areas.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018

Due to short impacts of the high winds/blowing dust, focus has been
on today and not this part of the forecast.

There will be a couple chances for precipitation in this period.
However am not too optimistic that a wetting precipitation event
will occur.  Looking at the upper level pattern, the northwest flow
will be giving somewhat of a glancing blow with the short wave
troughs responsible for the precipitation.  Have higher confidence
of a wetting precipitation event occurring Friday than this weekend.
Models do differ as to where the lift be, whether over the forecast
area or to the north.  Am concerned the lift will end up being more
north of the forecast area, as has been the case with previous
precipitation events over the past week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. South to
southwest winds increase into the 15 to 20kt range with gusts to
30kts during the morning before slowly veering to the west at
11-13kts at gusty around 21z. This continues through about sunset
before becoming a bit variable at 6kts or so although one could
argue KGLD would have a southwest component to the wind while KMCK
has a northeast component.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for COZ252.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NEZ079.

&&

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...ERRYK
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...99

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
609 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-050015-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
609 PM MDT Tue Apr 3 2018 /709 PM CDT Tue Apr 3 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Near critical fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday
afternoon along and east of a line from Tribune to McCook, as well
as Yuma County in northeast Colorado and Dundy County in southwest
Nebraska.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today or tonight.