High Wind Watch 2, NWS Goodland, KS

759 
WWUS73 KGLD 050425
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
925 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...

COZ090-NEZ079>081-051300-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.180305T0600Z-180306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.A.0002.180306T1500Z-180307T0000Z/
Yuma County-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, Benkelman, Culbertson, 
Trenton, Stratton Ne, Palisade, and McCook
925 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 /1025 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* Peak Winds...Northwest at 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration...Northwest winds will strengthen rapidly in 
  the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight. Wind gusts as high 
  as 65 mph are expected Monday morning, primarily between 
  sunrise and noon. Sustained northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph 
  and occasional gusts up to 60 mph are expected Monday 
  afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may reduce visibility and result in
  localized hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property.
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude may result in loss of vehicle control.
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong
cross- winds. Additionally, blowing dust may reduce visibility
and create locally hazardous travel conditions.

A High Wind Watch means the potential exists for hazardous wind
conditions with sustained winds of at least 40 mph or gusts of
58 mph or greater. Secure loose outdoor items now and stay tuned
for later forecasts and possible high wind warnings.

&&

$$

KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029-051300-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.180305T0600Z-180306T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.A.0002.180306T1500Z-180307T0000Z/
Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-
Logan-Gove-
Including the cities of St. Francis, Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, 
Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, Hill City, Oakley, Quinter, 
Grinnell, and Grainfield
925 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 /1025 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* Peak Winds...Northwest at 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration...Northwest winds will strengthen rapidly in 
  the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight. Wind gusts as high 
  as 65 mph will be possible Monday morning, primarily along and 
  north of Interstate 70 between sunrise and noon. Sustained 
  northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph and occasional gusts up to 60 
  mph are expected Monday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may reduce visibility and result in
  localized hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property.
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude may result in loss of vehicle control.
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong
cross- winds. Additionally, blowing dust may reduce visibility
and create locally hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment recommends that
you take preventative measures during this blowing dust event...
such as staying indoors or wearing protective breathing masks if
outside. High dust concentrations can cause respiratory
problems...decrease lung activity...aggravate asthma...and lead
to potential heart-related problems...especially with children...
elderly...or those with pre-existing respiratory conditions.

A High Wind Watch means the potential exists for hazardous wind
conditions with sustained winds of at least 40 mph or gusts of
58 mph or greater. Secure loose outdoor items now and stay tuned
for later forecasts and possible high wind warnings.

&&

$$

COZ091-092-051300-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.180305T0600Z-180306T0000Z/
Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-
Including the cities of Burlington, Arapahoe, and Cheyenne Wells
925 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST MONDAY...

* Peak Winds...Northwest at 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration...Northwest winds will strengthen rapidly in 
  the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight. Wind gusts as high 
  as 65 mph are expected Monday morning, primarily between 
  sunrise and noon. Sustained northwest winds of 35 to 45 mph 
  and occasional gusts up to 60 mph are expected Monday 
  afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may reduce visibility and result 
  in hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property.
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude may result in loss of vehicle control.
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong
cross- winds. Additionally, blowing dust may reduce visibility
and create locally hazardous travel conditions.

&&

$$

KSZ027-041-042-051300-
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.180305T0600Z-180306T0000Z/
Wallace-Greeley-Wichita-
Including the cities of Sharon Springs, Tribune, and Leoti
925 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 /1025 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
MONDAY...

* Peak Winds...Northwest at 30 to 45 mph with gusts up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration...Northwest winds will strengthen rapidly in 
  the wake of a cold frontal passage tonight. Wind gusts as high 
  as 65 mph will be possible Monday morning, primarily along and 
  north of Interstate 70 between sunrise and noon. Sustained 
  northwest winds of 30 to 45 mph and occasional gusts up to 60 
  mph are expected Monday afternoon.

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may reduce visibility and result 
  in localized hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment recommends that
you take preventative measures during this blowing dust event...
such as staying indoors or wearing protective breathing masks if
outside. High dust concentrations can cause respiratory
problems...decrease lung activity...aggravate asthma...and lead
to potential heart-related problems...especially with children...
elderly...or those with pre-existing respiratory conditions.

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property.
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude may result in loss of vehicle control.
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong
cross- winds. Additionally, blowing dust may reduce visibility
and create locally hazardous travel conditions.

$$

083 
WWUS73 KGLD 051109
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
409 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018

COZ090-KSZ001>004-013>016-028-029-NEZ079>081-051900-
/O.EXT.KGLD.HW.A.0002.180306T1300Z-180307T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180306T0000Z/
Yuma County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Logan-Gove-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, St. Francis, Bird City, 
Atwood, Oberlin, Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, Hill City, 
Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield, Benkelman, Culbertson, 
Trenton, Stratton Ne, Palisade, and McCook
409 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 /509 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* Peak Winds...For both days,northwest at 35 to 45 mph with gusts
  up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration...For both days, northwest winds will strengthen
  rapidly in the morning and continue through late in the
  afternoon. 

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may reduce visibility and result 
  in localized hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property.
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude may result in loss of vehicle control.
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong
cross- winds. Additionally, blowing dust may reduce visibility
and create locally hazardous travel conditions.

A High Wind Watch means the potential exists for hazardous wind
conditions with sustained winds of at least 40 mph or gusts of
58 mph or greater. Secure loose outdoor items now and stay tuned
for later forecasts and possible high wind warnings.

&&

$$

COZ091-092-KSZ027-041-042-051900-
/O.EXB.KGLD.HW.A.0002.180306T1300Z-180307T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180306T0000Z/
Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Wallace-Greeley-Wichita-
Including the cities of Burlington, Arapahoe, Cheyenne Wells, 
Sharon Springs, Tribune, and Leoti
409 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 /509 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a High Wind
Watch, which is in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
afternoon.

* Peak Winds...For both days,northwest at 35 to 45 mph with gusts
  up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration...For both days, northwest winds will strengthen
  rapidly in the morning and continue through late in the
  afternoon. 

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may reduce visibility and result 
  in localized hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property.
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude may result in loss of vehicle control.
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong
cross- winds. Additionally, blowing dust may reduce visibility
and create locally hazardous travel conditions.

A High Wind Watch means the potential exists for hazardous wind
conditions with sustained winds of at least 40 mph or gusts of
58 mph or greater. Secure loose outdoor items now and stay tuned
for later forecasts and possible high wind warnings.

&&

$$

412 
WWUS73 KGLD 051627
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Goodland KS
927 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018

...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOCALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES 
ASSOCIATED WITH BLOWING DUST WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION TODAY AND TUESDAY...

COZ090>092-NEZ079>081-061200-
/O.UPG.KGLD.HW.A.0002.180306T1300Z-180307T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGLD.HW.W.0002.180306T1300Z-180307T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180306T0000Z/
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
Including the cities of Yuma, Wray, Burlington, Arapahoe, 
Cheyenne Wells, Benkelman, Culbertson, Trenton, Stratton Ne, 
Palisade, and McCook
927 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 /1027 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/

...A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM 
CST/ THIS AFTERNOON... 

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 5 PM 
MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY...

* Peak Winds Today and Tuesday...Northwest at 35 to 45 mph with 
  gusts up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration Today and Tuesday...Winds will strengthen
  rapidly during the morning, peak during the afternoon, then 
  weaken around or shortly after sunset.

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may suddenly reduce visibility and
  result in locally hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property. 
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude can result in loss of vehicle control. 
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong 
cross-winds. Blowing dust may reduce visibility and create locally
hazardous travel conditions, particularly along the Interstate 70
corridor.

&&

$$

KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-061200-
/O.UPG.KGLD.HW.A.0002.180306T1300Z-180307T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KGLD.HW.W.0002.180306T1300Z-180307T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGLD.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180306T0000Z/
Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-
Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-
Including the cities of St. Francis, Bird City, Atwood, Oberlin, 
Norton, Goodland, Colby, Hoxie, Hill City, Sharon Springs, 
Oakley, Quinter, Grinnell, Grainfield, Tribune, and Leoti
927 AM MST Mon Mar 5 2018 /1027 AM CST Mon Mar 5 2018/

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/
THIS AFTERNOON...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ TO 5 PM
MST /6 PM CST/ TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Goodland has issued a High Wind
Warning, which is in effect from 6 AM MST /7 AM CST/ to 5 PM MST
/6 PM CST/ Tuesday. The High Wind Watch is no longer in effect.

* Peak Winds Today and Tuesday...Northwest at 35 to 45 mph with 
  gusts up to 65 mph.

* Timing/Duration Today and Tuesday...Winds will strengthen
  rapidly during the morning, peak during the afternoon, then 
  weaken around or shortly after sunset.

* Other Impacts...Blowing dust may suddenly reduce visibility and
  result in locally hazardous travel conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds of this magnitude will be capable of damaging property. 
Secure loose objects or bring them indoors, if possible.

Winds of this magnitude can result in loss of vehicle control. 
High profile vehicles will be particularly susceptible to strong 
cross-winds. Blowing dust may reduce visibility and create locally
hazardous travel conditions, particularly along the Interstate 70
corridor.

The Kansas Department of Health and Environment recommends taking 
preventative measures when blowing dust is expected, such as 
staying indoors or wearing protective breathing masks if outside. 
High dust concentrations can cause respiratory problems, decrease
lung activity, aggravate asthma, and potentially lead to heart- 
related problems, especially with children, the elderly, or those
with pre-existing respiratory conditions.

$$

Vincent

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
149 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 145 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018

An upper level trough progressing across the Rockies this
afternoon will assume a neutral to negative tilt as it emerges
east of the Front Range atop the High Plains late tonight and
Monday. An attendant lee cyclone will deepen invof the Tri-State
border the remainder of this afternoon, then track east invof the
KS/NE border, with an associated cold front surging through the
Tri-State region this evening.

Temperatures will fall quickly as winds abruptly shift to the
northwest in the wake of the cold frontal passage Sunday evening.
Strong to possibly damaging winds (30-40 mph sustained with gusts
55-65 mph) will be possible in the wake of the front late tonight
through late Monday morning in association with steepening low-
level lapse rates /cold advection/ amidst 45-55 knot flow down to
1-2 km agl, followed by strengthening mid-level subsidence on the
western periphery of the amplifying upper wave over the Northern
Plains in the 12-18Z time-frame. The strongest winds are expected
along/north of I-70. Though winds aloft may not be quite as strong
Monday afternoon, deep mixing aided by insolation should
effectively transport 40-45 knot flow to the ground, resulting in
high sustained winds (35-45 mph), with occasional gusts up to 60
mph possible throughout the afternoon. It should be noted that the
highest gusts are primarily expected across north/northeast
portions of the GLD area, and the relative lowest 'gust-potential'
is expected to be in southwest portions of the area.

The High Wind Watch has been upgraded to a High Wind Warning valid
from 06Z Mon through 00Z Tue for the entire Tri-State region. A
Red Flag Warning is in effect late Monday morning through Monday
evening, as well.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 246 AM MST Sun Mar 4 2018

Forecast concern will be the next chance for precipitation which
looks to be next weekend. Satellite continues to show an amplified
and blocky pattern from the Pacific into the western Atlantic.

At the beginning of the period the models flatten out the flow aloft
considerably, for a few days anyway, from what is going on at this
time. Then toward the end of the period the flow starts
reamplifying. This leads to increasing spread in deterministic and
ensemble output during this time. In general for Wednesday through
Friday, a flattening and weakening ridge moves across the region.
This will keep dry conditions in place and bring about a slow
warming trend. As a result liked what the forecast builder gave me
and made no changes.

However the models start having differences in how they handle the
trough coming in and the amount of the amplification of the flow
from the eastern Pacific into western North America. The Canadian
and especially the latest Ecmwf are much more amplified/further west
with the developing ridge and strengthening upper system over the
central plains. Gfs is more progressive and further east with its
forecast features.

Considering that the Canadian and Ecmwf are not too different and
that the GEFS ensemble mean supports the Canadian and Ecmwf
solutions more, am thinking that the more amplified solution will be
the one that evolves which is what the WPC manual 500 flow charts
show. However details are far from being resolved. The Ecmwf is
showing an interesting storm evolution over the region of which
you do not normally see.

Having said all that, the cool down the forecaster builder gave me
looks reasonable and did not change. Also left alone the
precipitation chances for next weekend. Some form of a trough comes
through and will give us some chance of precipitation. However,
model differences this far out led me to keep what the forecaster
builder gave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1030 AM MST Sun Mar 4 2018

VFR conditions will rule through the entire TAF period. Primary
concern for aviation will be gusty southwest winds this afternoon,
followed by an abrupt wind shift to the NW in the wake of a cold
frontal passage this evening. NW winds will increase in magnitude
after the frontal passage, becoming sustained at 25-30 knots with
gusts to 40 knots overnight. Sustained winds of 30-35 knots with
gusts to 50 knots will be possible Monday morning (e.g. sunrise
through noon).

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening to
     5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-
     041-042.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ Monday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...High Wind Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM MST Monday for
     COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Monday for COZ252>254.

NE...High Wind Warning from 11 PM MST /midnight CST/ this evening to
     5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon CST/ to 7 PM MST /8 PM
     CST/ Monday for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...VINCENT

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
116 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-052030-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
116 PM MST Sun Mar 4 2018 /216 PM CST Sun Mar 4 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Particularly dangerous fire weather conditions will be present across
the entire Tri-State region this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains
in effect through sunset this evening.

A High Wind Warning is in effect for the entire Tri-State region beginning
late tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A High Wind Warning will remain in effect for the entire Tri-State
until sunset Monday evening.

Particularly dangerous fire weather conditions will be present across
the entire Tri-State region again on Monday. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect late Monday morning through Monday evening.

Strong northwest winds may gust up to 60 mph on Tuesday, primarily
to the north and east of Goodland.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Vincent