High Wind Watch 1, NWS Goodland, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1025 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 1015 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018

Update: The Red Flag Warning for this afternoon has been expanded
slightly northward to include Thomas, Sheridan and Graham
counties. The Fire Weather Watch for Sunday has been expanded to
include Hitchcock, Red Willow, and Norton counties and now covers
the entire Tri-State region. See Fire Weather Discussion for more
detail.

Previous Discussion: Sunday...This is the beginning of a very
windy period. Front is even slower than 24 hours ago. So will get
a full day of heating ahead of the front. Models are showing some
increase in cloud cover from west to east but some models are
thicker with the cloud cover than others. Right now it looks like
the cloud cover may be overdone. So will be going near to above
the guidance. 3 hour pressure falls and mixing just as deep tor
deeper than today will occur. Based on forecast soundings/expected
lapse rates, am thinking winds of at least 20 to 30 mph with
higher gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range will be possible.

Sunday night into Monday night...Strong cold front moves through
during Sunday evening with a very tight pressure gradient and 3 hour
pressure rises near 10 mb. It looks like the winds will briefly go
into the 30 to 40 mph range before settling down into the 20 to 30
mph range the rest of the night. Gusts will be 40 to 45 mph.

Models are in good agreement in taking strong closed off upper
system to the north of the area. This looks to leave the area dry
and is reflected in the latest builder pops. Of more importance for
the daytime hours is that this is a classic high wind scenario for
our area. Flow through a deep height is unidirectional. Lapse rates
are very favorable for the winds to be brought down from at least
700 mb and possibly a little higher. Forecast winds in this mixed
layer are 45 to 50 knots. Raised the daytime wind speeds as a result
with the possibility of gusts near 60 mph or greater becoming more
likely. As said yesterday, if current trends a high wind highlight
will be needed. At this time will hit this as hard as possible in
the messaging and the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 239 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018

Deep H5 low continues to drift eastward on Tuesday, crossing through
Iowa and into northern Illinois through the day. Steep pressure
rises on the west side of this system will continue to influence the
wind field across the Plains through Tuesday afternoon. Another day
of sustained 30 to 35 mph northwest winds is expected with gusts
approaching 45 mph. We should see these winds begin to diminish
around sunset as reduced mixing combines with weakening pressure
rises.

Going into Wednesday, high pressure begins building into the region
from the west. Looking at continued dry conditions and near normal
temperatures with northwest flow. Ridge influence works further east
on Thursday which will begin to reflect in our high temperatures,
pushing afternoon highs above normal and into the 50s to near 60
degrees. Continued warming prevails on Friday as the ridge axis
flattens slightly and encompasses the Plains. Temperatures will
climb into the 60s across the CWA on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1015 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at the GLD
terminal. Expect S/SW winds increasing to 15-20 knots by late
afternoon, persisting overnight. Southwest winds will increase to
~20 knots with gusts to ~30 knots at the end of the TAF period
(~18Z Sunday).

At the MCK terminal, VFR conditions will rule through this evening
into tonight. A period of MVFR/IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out
at the end of the TAF period (09-18Z Sun), though probabilities
will be greater with eastern extent /e.g. in central KS/. Expect
light/variable winds to gradually become SSE at 10-15 knots late
this afternoon, with a southerly breeze persisting overnight.
Winds will veer to the S/SSW at 15-20 knots by the end of the TAF
period (~18Z Sunday).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1015 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018

Today: Near-record/record high temperatures, minimum RHs between
5 and 15 percent, and a gradual increase in southerly winds are
anticipated across much of the area this afternoon. The Red Flag
Warning already in effect along/south of I-70 has been expanded to
include Thomas, Sheridan, and Graham counties where southerly
winds should gradually increase to 15 to 25 mph by mid afternoon
with sporadic gusts to 30 mph possible.

Sunday: With high temperatures in the 70s, minimum RHs in the 5
to 15 percent range, and widespread southwest winds at 25 to 35
mph, the Fire Weather Watch already for Sunday has been expanded
to include the entire Tri-State region (added Norton, Hitchcock
and Red Willow counties). The Fire Weather Watch on Sunday will,
in all likelihood, be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning this
afternoon.

Monday: High temperatures on Monday will be considerably cooler
(40s to lower 50s) than today/Sun as a colder airmass advects into
the region in the wake of a cold frontal passage Sun evening.
However, minimum RHs are progged to bottom out at 10 to 20
percent in the presence of NW winds sustained at 25-40 mph with
gusts as high as 55-65 mph. With the above in mind, a Fire
Weather Watch may be required for Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 402 AM MST Sat Mar 3 2018

Record and/or near record high temperatures are expected at the
following locations for today, March 3:

Goodland.....74 degrees in 1936
Hill City....80 degrees in 1910
Tribune......76 degrees in 1946
Burlington...76 degrees in 2009
Yuma.........72 degrees in 1983

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for COZ252>254.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ253-254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
     for NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...VINCENT/BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...VINCENT
FIRE WEATHER...VINCENT
CLIMATE...BULLER

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