Flash Flood Warning 51, NWS Goodland, KS

633 
WGUS73 KGLD 022135
FFSGLD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
435 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSC065-022330-
/O.CON.KGLD.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-180902T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham KS-
435 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY...

At 435 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area.  Flash flooding is expected to begin
shortly or is already occurring, especially on county roadways.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Bogue and Nicodemus. 

LAT...LON 3913 9990 3938 9982 3939 9960 3913 9961

$$

JN

224 
WGUS73 KGLD 022320 RRA
FFSGLD

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
620 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSC065-022330-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FF.W.0051.000000T0000Z-180902T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Graham KS-
620 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 630 PM CDT...

The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a
threat. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3913 9990 3938 9982 3939 9960 3913 9961

$$

JN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
217 PM MDT Sun Sep 2 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Little has changed in the overall setup, with a broad trough over
the central Rockies and embedded waves contributing to weak
synoptic scale forcing. At the surface, front has stalled over the
northwest corner of the forecast area with low level southeasterly
flow advecting moisture into the area. Shear/instability
parametersare best over the far eastern areas where there is a
slight risk for severe storms capable of producing large
hail/damaging winds through the evening hours. In other areas,
slow storm motions, the mean 0-6km wind is near zero, combined
with the anomalously high moisture in place will result in
localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding. Storm coverage/intensity
will gradually diminish through the overnight hours. Areas of fog
will develop towards sunrise as boundary layer cools/saturated,
with fog gradually dissipating through Monday morning.

On Monday, looks like more of the same with little change in the
overall pattern. Southern areas again see the best combination of
shear/instability so may see a severe storm or two there. Storm
motions are higher compared to today, 0-6km mean winds actually
increase to near 20kts by the afternoon, which may mitigate flash
flooding concerns. Nonetheless, model QPF still showing some 1-2
inch bullseyes so cannot completely rule out the heavy rain/flash
flooding threat on Monday.

Temperatures will be slightly below normal due to persistent
cloudiness.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Sep 2 2018

An upper-level ridge will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic United
States Monday evening while a broad upper-level trough will dip into
the southwest United States. This will promote relatively strong
south-southwesterly upper-level winds over the Central High Plains
Monday through Wednesday. There is increasing confidence that this
set up could lead to heavy rainfall and potentially flash flooding
across the Tri-State area during this time period. Instead of a
typical diurnal pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible essentially throughout
the entire time period between Monday night and Wednesday night for
most of the Tri-State Region.

With measurable precip over the past couple days and more expected
today, the ground will be relatively saturated when these
potentially heavy rains come in the beginning of the coming week.
This increases the confidence that flooding will be a concern in the
next few days, especially in urban areas or eastern portions of the
area where more rain has fallen during the Labor Day weekend. With a
few days before the heaviest rainfall expected Tuesday evening and
into Wednesday, there is still a lot of uncertainty about how much
rainfall there will be and where that rainfall will be located. It
appears likely that some locations will record up to an inch or more
of rain Labor Day through Wednesday.

Upper-level winds will begin to decrease in intensity towards the
latter half of the coming week, but they will generally remain
southerly or southwesterly until Friday evening when an upper-level
trough will usher in weak northwest flow aloft over the Central High
Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain a
possibility through early Friday.

At this point, there is significant disagreement among model
guidance about the chances for showers and thunderstorms next
weekend. With the GFS keying in on an approaching strong longwave
trough progressing eastward from the Pacific Northwest, vertical
wind shear would increase and there would be some dynamic support
for showers and thunderstorms late next weekend. However, the ECMWF
model for example is less bullish on this approaching trough and
would tend to keep the Central High Plains dry on Saturday and
Sunday. For now, keeping a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms over eastern portions of our area for Sunday.

High temperatures will start out in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday
and Tuesday, before cooling off to the low 70s for Wednesday and
Thursday after the heavy rains/abundant cloud cover expected on
Tuesday and Wednesday. After that, highs slowly warm up to the mid
70s Friday and low 80s for the weekend. Similarly, low temperatures
will be in the low 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday, then cool a little
to the upper 50s for Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM MDT Sun Sep 2 2018

Thunderstorm chances today will be best in areas south and east of
the the KMCK and KGLD terminals, so did not mention in the TAFs.
Nonetheless, there will be low chances of thunderstorms through
the afternoon and evening hours. Overnight, expecting areas of
fog to develop with a period of IFR conditions likely around
sunrise Monday morning, with gradual improvement and VFR by mid to
late Monday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...PATTON
AVIATION...024

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
219 PM MDT Sun Sep 2 2018

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-032030-
Yuma County-Kit Carson County-Cheyenne County-Cheyenne-Rawlins-
Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-
Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-Red Willow-
219 PM MDT Sun Sep 2 2018 /319 PM CDT Sun Sep 2 2018/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

There is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening along and east of a line from Norton to Scott City in
northwest Kansas. Large hail and damaging winds may accompany
stronger storms.

Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also possible with any
storm that develops today and tonight due to slow storm motions.

Areas of fog with visibility occasionally reduced to less than one
mile will be possible overnight tonight and into early Monday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A risk of locally heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding will
continue across parts of the area Monday and Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSZ028-021945-
Logan KS-
209 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 209 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Russell Springs, or 23 miles east of Sharon Springs,
moving east at 10 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Russell Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3888 10137 3898 10140 3903 10128 3892 10117
TIME...MOT...LOC 1909Z 247DEG 9KT 3893 10132

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSZ028-022030-
Logan KS-
247 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 246 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Wallace, or 19 miles east of Sharon Springs, moving
northeast at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Winona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3889 10148 3898 10148 3911 10141 3908 10129
      3902 10116 3882 10133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 210DEG 5KT 3894 10139

JN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
303 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

KSZ016-022045-
Graham KS-
303 PM CDT SUN SEP 2 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN GRAHAM COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Bogue, or 10 miles southeast of Hill City, moving
northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bogue and Nicodemus.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 9971 3919 9991 3947 9979 3944 9960
      3923 9961
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 206DEG 17KT 3922 9977

JN