Alert archive / Colorado / Flash Flood Warnings in 2018

Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Grand Junction, CO

July 24, 2018La Plata County, Colorado

NWS Grand Junction, CO issued this flash flood warning at Jul 24, 2018, 1:41 PM MDT for La Plata County, Colorado. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Jul 24, 2018, 1:41 PM MDT (19:41 UTC)
Expired
Jul 24, 2018, 5:15 PM MDT
In force
4 hr
Issued by
NWS Grand Junction, CO
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

County La Plata County, CO

The radar

The Grand Junction radar (KGJX), 200 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:43 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM (KABQ), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 273 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2018-07-24Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Albuquerq/Krtlnd, NM at 12:00Z on 2018-07-24The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1766 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 24, 11:52 AM MDT, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 24, 11:52 AM MDT, 1 hour 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1152 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

The center of broad high pressure will shift from western New
Mexico to Arizona today through Wednesday, signaling the
interruption of another weak and unsatisfying monsoonal surge of
the past few days. This afternoon and evening will still see
monsoonal moisture flowing into southern CO producing showers and
thunderstorms but that flow should be interrupted by Wed. Also, a
shortwave trough in the westerlies over the Northern Rockies will
increase drying from the west and north and continue forcing the
remnants of the monsoonal moisture plume to curve to the east over
central CO. This will leave northeast UT and the northern half of
CO drier today through Wed. Wednesday will see the flow aloft
becoming more northwesterly as the high moves further west and low
pressure deepens over the midwest. There will still be showers
and thunderstorms fueled by daytime heating acting on the moisture
trapped within the high, with highest coverage over southern CO.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Once the high pressure center migrates west it remains quasi-
stationary, centered over northwestern Arizona and southern
Nevada according to a consensus of the medium range models. In
this position moisture will slowly erode across the area as drier
air to the northwest infiltrates the region. In response, eastern
Utah and western Colorado will experience a decrease in areal
coverage of thunderstorms during the remainder of the week,
through the weekend and into early next week. Not only will
showers and thunderstorms become more scarce, they will become
higher based, producing strong outflow winds but little measurable
precipitation. Afternoon highs during this period will remain hot
with little day to day variability, while overnight lows cool
slightly as the atmosphere dries.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM MDT Tue Jul 24 2018

Convection today started with an MCV across the Paradox valley
which has since weakened, but a few thunderstorms have developed
with one heading toward KTEX. Most activity should develop south
of I-70, but outflow boundaries may develop later to trigger
isolated showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. Convective activity
may continue past 06z tonight for some nocturnal activity. Gusty outflow
winds of 30 to 45 mph will be possible with thunderstorms.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...None.
UT...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CC
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JAM
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 24, 2:23 AM MDT, 11 hours 18 minutes before
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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 24, 1:07 PM MDT, 34 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
107 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

COZ019-241945-
Southwest San Juan Mountains CO-
107 PM MDT TUE JUL 24 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HINSDALE...
SOUTHEASTERN SAN JUAN AND NORTHEASTERN LA PLATA COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM
MDT...

At 107 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles south of Silverton, or 27 miles north of Durango, moving
southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Elk Park.

This includes U.S. Highway 550 in Colorado between mile markers 48
and 66.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 10785 3778 10773 3760 10727 3737 10744
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 301DEG 19KT 3767 10772

MDA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Junction, CO issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 23, 6:00 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementGJT45 min
Jul 24, 1:07 PM MDTSpecial Weather StatementGJTSan Juan38 min
Jul 24, 2:28 PM MDTFlash Flood WatchGJTArchuleta, Dolores, Hinsdale, La Plata, Montezuma, San Juan and 1 more32 hr
Jul 24, 2:32 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGJTArchuleta, Hinsdale3 hr
Jul 24, 2:51 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGJTDolores, La Plata, Montezuma3 hr
Jul 24, 4:25 PM MDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGJTSan Juan3 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Colorado, 2018Every flash flood warning in 2018

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.