Winter Storm Warning 6, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1149 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

The 18Z and 00Z mdls have nudged the snow a little further E since
4 PM fcst package.

Am very concerned that the RAP/NAM/GFS/EC are all indicating a
core of 45-50 kt winds at 850 mb developing on the back side of
the low after 09Z. MOS winds hv been shown to be 5-8 kt too low
in these situations. I incrsd winds above MOS...but fear I may
not hv incrsd winds enough. Nonetheless...we are now advertising
gusts up to 50 mph.

We contemplated issuing a Blizzard Warning but after coordinating
with neighboring WFO's and in-house collaboration here...decided
instead to beef-up the wording in the Warning/Advisory areas to
include blzd-like conds. It is going to be nasty traveling thru
this band on I-80 tomorrow.

Even where snow accums will be less significant...we are still
concerned about blzd-like conds.

Based on the magnitude of the winds and accumulating snow inching
more to the E...svrl more counties hv been added to the Warning
and Advisory areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Radar continues to show rain spreading across the area this
afternoon. There had been a few lightning strikes earlier, but
recently there have not been any nearby.

The weather continues to be busy. There is an upper level low moving
into the area tonight into Thursday. The models have trended a
little more to the east with this system and therefore there have
been a few changes to the forecast.

The rain is expected to continue across the area the rest of today
into tonight. The colder air will move in from the west during the
night tonight. At this time, expect the transition to start in the
far west around midnight tonight. By morning, much of the west will
have snow with the transition zone through the middle of the
forecast area. With day light on Thursday, the transition zone
becomes a little wider and there could be some freezing
precipitation for a short time mainly during the morning as the
colder air moves into the area. By mid day Thursday, only the far
east will have some mixed precipitation, and by afternoon snow
should be across the entire area. The winds will be strong starting
late tonight and continuing through the day Thursday. The strong
winds will cause some blowing and drifting of snow especially in the
north and western part of the area.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

Thursday night the upper level low finally moves off to the
northeast far enough that the snow finally comes to an end from
south to north. There could be a little blowing snow in the north.

After the upper low moves out of the area, a strong surface high
will settle into the area Friday and Friday night. Skies will
gradually clear out late Friday into Friday night, winds will be
light and with some snow on the ground, temperatures could fall off.
Expect temperatures mostly in the single digits. The surface high
remains across the area on Saturday and temperatures will remain
cool. By Saturday night, the surface high moves to the southeast and
with some warm advection, the temperatures will warm up a little for
Sunday.

Another cold front moves through the area Sunday night and there
could be a period of snow behind the front for Monday. The period
Tuesday through Wednesday should be dry. Temperatures will be cool
on Tuesday, but should warm a little for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Thursday)
Issued at 1141 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

IFR conditions are expected through mid day. The winds turn
northwesterly early this morning and as the temps cool expect rain
to change over to snow. With the change over there could be some
wintery mix also until the temps cool down far enough to become
all snow. Also have a mention for VCTS as some of the models are
hinting there could be a rumble or two around GRI.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST Thursday night for
     NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082.

     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for
     NEZ040-047-062-074-083-084.

KS...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST Thursday night for
     KSZ005-017.

&&

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...Beda

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
831 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
280245-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
831 PM CST Wed Dec 26 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Storm total rainfall amounts between one and two inches will
occur. This rain falling on frozen ground could lead to minor
flooding of low-lying areas as well as rises on rivers and
creeks. Additionally...a few thunderstorms may occur.

A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect
after midnight...mainly along and west of Highway 281. Please
refer to the latest winter weather message for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory are in effect
for portions of the area mainly along and west of Highway 281
until midnight Thursday night. Please refer to the latest winter
weather message for more details.

Winds will be sustained between 25 and 35 mph Thursday...with
gusts as high as 50 mph at times.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters...please report snowfall amounts of 2 inches or
greater...as well as any wind damage.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Kelley