Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

...Updated for Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Aloft: Complex low-amplitude/zonal flow was over the Nrn USA per
RAP analyses...12Z upr-air data and satellite loops. A trof
extended from Hudson Bay back to UT...with multiple other smaller
embedded trofs. One such trof extended from the Neb Sandhills back
into Nrn CO. This trof will move across the CWA early this eve
while a stronger trof (currently over MT) slides SE toward the
Cntrl Plns as well. This trof will cross SD tonight with its tail
end brushing Neb/KS. Amplification of the flow will begin tonight
with cyclonic NW flow tomorrow.

Surface: A weak cool front was along the Neb/KS border this AM
and has been slowly sinking S thru the day. By 00Z this front
should be near I-70. The approaching trof will drive this front
further S into KS tonight. High pres was currently over the Nrn
Rckys. This high will weaken and slide SE behind the front into
Neb/KS tomorrow.

More on sensible wx later...

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Tuesday:
The main upper disturbance will slide through by morning and with
it push the remainder of any precipitation south into southern
Kansas and Oklahoma. Highs again are expected in the low to mid
80s.

Wednesday - Sunday:
Expect the remainder of the forecast to be largely dry. The upper
pattern is messy with a disturbance just east of the area
potentially being cut-off from the upper flow. Surface high
pressure will sit east of the area for much of this time. There is
some uncertainty with how this upper pattern will evolve, where
will the upper disturbance be?, east of the area or further west
as earlier guidance indicated. Highs are expected to be in the 80s
through the remainder of the forecast. Any precipitation chances
do not look to be overly organized and have kept Wed-Sun dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

Significant Wx: IFR fog likely 09Z-15Z

This afternoon: MVFR stratocu has finally SCT at EAR...but a CIG
remains at GRI. There is some uncertainty as to when GRI will
become SCT and VFR. There is a slight chance of a brief shwr or
tstm. NE winds 10 kt or less. Confidence: Medium

Tonight: VFR with no clds at or below 10K ft until areas of fog
develop around 09Z. IFR conds currently expected. NE winds under
10 kt become lgt/vrbl. Confidence: Medium

Tue thru 18Z: Probably IFR in fog to start. Conds will improve to
at least MVFR...but that could last most of the morning. For now
did not go that pessimistic...but potential is there. Lgt/vrbl
winds become N and remain light. Confidence: Medium

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...Kelley

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
071800-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
1246 PM CDT Mon Aug 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible at any time through early
this evening. The risk of thunderstorms will then end over most of
south central Nebraska. The greatest chance and coverage of
thunderstorms will be tonight...from north central Kansas into the
Hebron area. Some of these storms tonight could become severe...
with hail up to the size of ping pong balls and damaging winds to
60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

A few lingering thunderstorms may be present Tuesday morning
across portions of north central Kansas, but this activity is not
expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Kelley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
311 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

NEZ047-048-062045-
Merrick NE-Howard NE-
311 PM CDT MON AUG 6 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL MERRICK AND SOUTHEASTERN
HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 310 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Archer to St. Libory to near Cairo.
Movement was east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Central City, Clarks, St. Libory and Archer.

LAT...LON 4112 9788 4103 9814 4104 9828 4105 9828
      4105 9863 4109 9843 4123 9816 4128 9771
TIME...MOT...LOC 2010Z 264DEG 38KT 4119 9817 4110 9837 4105 9860

Wesely