Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Another hot afternoon is expected across the region ahead of a
cold front which should bring widespread shower and thunderstorm
activity to the local area this evening and overnight. In the
meantime...a few light showers from dissipating convection across
the high plains to our west is visible on radar imagery this
morning...and little more than a few clouds and possibly an
isolated sprinkle will be possible with this activity through the
morning hours. Later today...temperatures will climb well into the
90s...or about 15 degrees above seasonal norms for early June.
With these spiking temperatures...significant instability will
build across the local area...on the order of 3-4 J/KG of
CAPE...which is more than sufficient for severe thunderstorm
development this evening.

While shear will be on the meager side this evening...with forcing
from the front...expect elevated storms to rapidly develop ahead
of the boundary...resulting in mainly elevated storms capable of
producing large hail and strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Due to
the timing of this front...expect convection to be slow to
initiate...likely not getting going until the mid to late evening
hours...with the severe threat diminishing during the early
morning hours Thursday. Along with the potential for severe
storms...widespread rainfall will also be possible across much of
the local area...with rainfall totals of an inch or greater
possible with the heavier storms.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 354 AM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

Expect the aforementioned frontal boundary to meander across the
local area to start the extended periods...with the possibility
of additional strong to severe thunderstorms possible Thursday and
Friday afternoon/evenings...although the more widespread chances
appear to be focused during the Thursday evening/overnight period.
Thereafter...ridging should dominate the local area until early
next week when an upper level trough swings across the northern
plains. This should result in above normal temperatures continuing
through the weekend...with a few small chances for
thunderstorms...although widespread or severe activity is not
anticipated under this pattern. As the upper level ridge then
eventually breaks down and retreats into the desert
southwest...and a return to more seasonal temperatures is expected
for the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Thursday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

VFR conditions expected through the afternoon. Thunderstorms are
possible this evening and overnight at both terminals. Winds will
be south to southeasterly this evening becoming light and variable
as the surface front dips south.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
072100-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
347 PM CDT Wed Jun 6 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon
across eastern sections of the area with a chance for strong wind
gusts to 60 to 70 mph and large hail up to ping pong ball size.
Additionally thunderstorms are also expected to develop across
the High Plains and move eastward into the late evening and
overnight hours across the whole area. Strong winds will again
the primary threat with some large hail also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of
the local area both Thursday and Friday. There will be additional
chances for thunderstorms across the area off and on through the
remainder of the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may become necessary later this evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright