Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1244 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Will have to contend with some morning thunderstorms across our
west that could linger for awhile before eventually dissipating.

The upper level trough will edge a bit further east today and
thunderstorms are once again likely to develop this afternoon
west of our forecast area. However, thunderstorm initiation this
afternoon will be closer to our forecast area and more likely to
move into our western counties and possibly even into the Tri-
Cities and points east later tonight. Still, the best chances for
strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be
across our far western counties with decreasing chances as you
travel east across the area.

The expected afternoon thunderstorms will likely evolve into an
MCS and track into at least our western area during the evening
hours. Any tornado threat should be west of our forecast area and
the primary severe weather threat by the time the storms move
into our western zones will be strong winds and large hail. The
severe weather threat will likely continue through late evening.

Temperatures will remain hot today, but should be just a few
degrees cooler with a little more in the way of high cloud cover
especially western zones. Most areas will still see 90s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Above normal temperatures are likely to continue throughout the
period.

Tuesday...
This appears to be the most interesting weather day in the
extended period with a pretty good chance for widespread
thunderstorms that should bring needed appreciable rainfall to
much of our forecast area, although some areas will probably get
missed. It is a complex severe weather set up with morning
thunderstorms possible that could influence how and where stronger
more severe thunderstorms are likely to form during the afternoon
hours. There is not much of a cap inversion so we could see more
than one round of thunderstorms with storms around the area at
about any point during the day, but the strongest storms will
likely form during the late afternoon/early evening hours
southwest of any early day storms.

It will likely be a high instability day, but only modest shear.
Given the high instability with more questionable shear, severe
winds and hail will be the primary threat. Can not rule out an
isolated tornado during the late afternoon or evening hours if sfc
winds back enough to a more easterly direction from old outflow
boundaries. Will have to keep an eye on this, but again the main
threat will be hail, wind, and locally heavy rainfall.

Wednesday through Friday...
Should be mostly dry for a majority of our forecast area with a
weak upper ridge between systems. The next shortwave will enter
the high plains on Friday but any thunderstorms will probably hold
off until Friday night. This is still several days away, but
severe thunderstorms could again be possible Friday evening/night
depending on the track and timing of this next short wave trough.

Saturday into Sunday...
We will likely be on the back side of the Friday night short wave,
which means it is looking mainly dry right now as long as timing
holds as currently forecast. Might dip back into the 80s for
highs, but still above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

Low confidence forecast for this TAF period. Thunderstorm activity
looks to affect the terminal areas earlier than expected this
afternoon. Models aren't handling things the best, so how things
evolve over the next 24 hours is uncertain, but with most models
showing activity around, it was difficult to try and pick out a
specific block of time where there wouldn't be activity. Winds
at/around the terminal areas are variable in direction and speed,
expect that to continue while this activity is around this
afternoon.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wesely
LONG TERM...Wesely
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
306 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
291200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
306 PM CDT Mon May 28 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorm chances will continue across the outlook area this
afternoon and evening. There will be the potential for storms to
be strong to severe. The best chances for severe weather will be
mainly south of Highway 6 and into portions of north central
Kansas. The primary hazards with any severe thunderstorms would
be hail to the size of golf balls, wind gusts near 60 mph and
heavy rainfall. An isolated tornado is also not out of the
question.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across the entire
outlook area on Tuesday with the greatest threat being during the
late afternoon and evening hours. The primary severe weather
threats will be wind gusts in excess of 60 mph and hail to the
size of golf balls.

The next more widespread chance for thunderstorms appears to be
Friday night. It is still too early to determine if there will be
a severe weather threat during this period.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
145 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

NEZ084-085-281915-
Franklin NE-Webster NE-
145 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM CDT...

At 145 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Campbell, or 30 miles southwest of Hastings,
moving north at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Blue Hill, Campbell and Bladen.

LAT...LON 4014 9856 4014 9875 4035 9878 4035 9841
TIME...MOT...LOC 1845Z 199DEG 13KT 4020 9867

ADP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
150 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0149 PM     HAIL             9 NNW KENSINGTON        39.89N 99.08W
05/28/2018  E1.00 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
221 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0204 PM     HAIL             2 N SPEED               39.71N 99.42W
05/28/2018  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           KS   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT.

&&

KS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
226 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSZ007-NEZ063-064-075>077-085-086-282015-
Jewell KS-Nuckolls NE-Adams NE-Webster NE-Hamilton NE-Clay NE-
York NE-Fillmore NE-
226 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEWELL...CLAY...
NUCKOLLS...EASTERN WEBSTER...SOUTHEASTERN ADAMS...SOUTHWESTERN
YORK...SOUTHERN HAMILTON AND WESTERN FILLMORE COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary along
a line extending from near Giltner to near Red Cloud. Movement was
southeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Aurora, Superior, Sutton, Harvard, Henderson, Clay Center, Edgar,
Nelson, Fairfield, Giltner, Glenvil, Lawrence, Davenport, Guide Rock,
Grafton, Inland, Deweese, Oak, Ong and Saronville.

This includes Interstate 80 between mile markers 322 and 339.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for north central
Kansas...and portions of south central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 3976 9806 4000 9853 4092 9817 4075 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 313DEG 24KT 4082 9813 4003 9844

JCB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
300 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

KSZ017-282030-
Rooks KS-
300 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ROOKS COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a severe thunderstorm over
Nicodemus, or 10 miles east of Hill City, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Quarter size hail and winds in excess of 60 mph will be possible with
this storm.

People in northwestern Rooks County should monitor the weather
situation closely.  A warning may be needed if the storms move into
the area.  Be ready to seek shelter if severe weather threatens.

LAT...LON 3933 9960 3956 9960 3957 9959 3957 9940
      3944 9928
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 234DEG 13KT 3940 9966

Fay

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
312 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

NEZ074-075-085-282100-
Adams NE-Webster NE-Kearney NE-
312 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WEBSTER...ADAMS AND
SOUTHEASTERN KEARNEY COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 312 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Holstein, or 18 miles southwest of Hastings, moving northeast at 25
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hastings, Kenesaw, Juniata, Bladen, Roseland and Holstein.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4029 9858 4034 9873 4035 9873 4037 9880
      4070 9867 4070 9864 4060 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 203DEG 21KT 4040 9865

JCB