Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
627 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

Attention is on the severe weather threat this evening/tonight.

A cold frontal boundary stretched from roughly along a line from
near Alma to Blue Hill to York and Shelby at mid day. The boundary
location shows up fairly well on KUEX radar and the front has
meandered a little farther to the north from this morning and areas
along/south of the front and east of the dry line are the areas we
are monitoring for thunderstorms and severe weather heading into
this evening/early tonight. The HRRR seems to have the best handle
on the evolution of convection tonight with development between 4
and 5 pm, and increasing in coverage along our east/southeast zones
through the evening. Instability along/ahead of the boundary is
good, with ML CAPES of 2000-2500 j/kg and there is plenty of shear
with effective values of 40-50kts. Potential exists for supercells
capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds and even
tornadoes, with storms expected to evolve into a line along the
boundary this evening. The brunt of the convection is expected to
impact our region during the evening hours, with the line of storms
exiting our region shortly after dark, but additional development is
possible in SE zones overnight with lift enhanced by a strengthening
low level jet over the front. Locally heavy rainfall may accompany
the storms with precipitable water values averaging near one inch,
or roughly 150 percent of normal for this time of year.

Low clouds settle in behind the front again tonight and the NAM has
been overdone in developing drizzle in this set up and prefer the
drier model forecasts heading into Wednesday morning. The front is
expected to stall in the vicinity of our southeast counties
Wednesday and the location will be key as to whether we see
another round of severe weather tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

Wednesday night through Thursday evening, the upper trough which has
been over the Rockies for several days finally gets kicked out and
emerges onto, then crosses the Central Plains. Showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast as this system moves through.
On Wednesday the surface front may be oriented as far north as a
roughly KHLC/KHYS to KHJH per GFS, or just southeast of our cwa
during peak heating per the NAM. It'll be close to the southeast
edge of our area, with the boundary bringing a continued threat for
severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail/damaging winds.
If the boundary does settle across our southeast zones, it'll be a
smaller window time wise where storms are possible before convection
shifts eastward.

By Thursday, the main instability axis moves east of our area
while the upper low fills as it crosses the plains. The better
chances for severe weather will be departing our area by Thursday,
however the weather will still be fairly cool/wet with scattered
showers and a few storms as the upper system moves across.
Instability is elevated in nature through the morning, then
diminishes nw/se through the day and precip will end in the
aftn/evening as the upper trough axis departs.

The weather quiets down Friday/Saturday with dry and warmer weather
forecast. Weak upper ridging breaks down as it expands onto the
interior CONUSThe frontal
boundary location will be dependent upon how storms unfold
tonight, with the boundary expected to be located along our
southeast counties Wednesday. to whether or not we will see another
round of storms/severe weather tomorrow. Saturday due to a shortwave translating southeast
from British Columbia. Temperatures trend up, rising above seasonal
normals into the 70s/80s over the weekend. Overall rain/storm
chances look rather minimal until Tuesday, with the arrival of the
next upper trough/front.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Wednesday)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

The weather is expected to quiet down during the next hour or so
as thunderstorms shift farther east of KGRI. Behind a cold front
cloud cigs will lower through the night to MVFR then IFR, then
increase to MVFR during the latter TAF hours Wednesday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Fay
LONG TERM...Fay
AVIATION...Fay

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
724 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
030030-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
724 PM CDT Tue May 1 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening, especially for
locations south of line from Osborne to Mankato, Kansas. The
storms will be capable of producing large hail to the size of
tennis balls, damaging winds over 60 mph and tornadoes. Additional
thunderstorms are possible overnight, mainly for areas south of an
Alma to York line.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday. There is a chance storms may become severe Wednesday
evening southeast of a line from Beloit, Kansas to Hebron,
Nebraska. One inch hail and winds of 50 to 60 mph winds would be
the main hazards.

Slight chances for thunderstorms exist across portions of the
outlook area Saturday night and again Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter will be needed through the evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TORNADO          3 NE CHESTER            40.04N 97.59W
05/01/2018                   THAYER             NE   PUBLIC

            POSSIBLE TORNADO PER FACEBOOK
            PHOTO...LOOKING SOUTH FROM 6 MILES SOUTH OF
            HEBRON.

&&

PFANNKUCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
629 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

NEZ041-048-063-020000-
Merrick NE-Hamilton NE-Nance NE-
629 PM CDT TUE MAY 1 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NANCE...NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON AND CENTRAL MERRICK COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 629 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Chapman, or 17 miles northeast of Grand Island, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Central City, Clarks, Silver Creek, Chapman and Archer.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south
central, central and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4132 9762 4131 9764 4131 9765 4130 9766
      4129 9768 4126 9772 4123 9777 4120 9780
      4119 9780 4117 9783 4116 9783 4099 9805
      4106 9824 4139 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 2329Z 219DEG 43KT 4107 9809

Mangels

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