Severe Thunderstorm Warning 237, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
416 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop along and
ahead of a cold front stretched across portions of central
Nebraska this afternoon. With around 2000 Joules of CAPE to work
with evident on mesoanalysis along with modest shear near the
front...expect the area of showers and thunderstorms to continue
to fill in and intensify over the next few hours. As this
occurs...expect the line of thunderstorms to become more organized
and become capable of producing strong winds...along with
isolated pockets of marginally severe hail. In addition...until
the main upper level wave begins to make a more significant push
eastward...could also see some pockets of heavy rainfall as storms
will likely train across some of the same areas...which could
lead to some isolated rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches. That
said...with the dry conditions of late...do not plan on making an
issue of heavy rainfall as it will take a much more significant
rainfall event in order to cause much of an issue.

Once the main upper level low across Wyoming/Montana shifts
further east and pushes the cold front through the local area
during the overnight hours tonight...expect a return to more
seasonable temperatures...with overnight lows expected to bottom
out in the upper 40s in the coolest spots...to mid 50s elsewhere.

For tomorrow...despite the mostly sunny skies...expect continued
cool air advection behind tonights front to bring a taste of
fall...with breezy northwesterly winds and temperatures ranging
from only in the 60s across our Nebraska counties...to the lower
70s across portions of north central Kansas. This cool weather
will then persist into the evening and overnight hours...when
winds drop off and mostly clear skies should combine to make for
near ideal radiational cooling conditions...likely making Saturday
morning the coolest start to a day we have seen locally since
late April.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

After a cool start to the day on Saturday...expect weak ridging in
the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere to make for a fairly
nice weekend across the local area with temperatures rebounding to
near seasonal norms under mainly clear skies both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons. Could see southerly breezes increase a bit
both Sunday and Monday afternoons as the next upper level trough
begins transitioning across the intermountain west...which will
bring the next chance for some showers and maybe a thunderstorm
back to the local area Monday afternoon and evening. Because
instability looks very marginal with this system at this point in
time...do not anticipate much in the way of strong or severe
thunderstorms...with the chance for thunder itself diminishing
during the evening and overnight hours Monday as this system makes
its way across the local area.

Thereafter...a west northwesterly flow pattern is expected to
prevail across the local area through the end of next
week...bringing multiple...small...chances for showers across the
local area along with near seasonal temperatures for late
September.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 18Z Friday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

A cold front will bring MVFR CIGS to both terminals over the next
couple of hours as it continues to progress towards the south and
east. Ahead of this front, expect gusty southerly to southwesterly
winds to continue...with increasing chances for a TSRA by 20/20Z.
While there could be IFR CIGS or VSBYS in a +TSRA, opted to keep
prevailing conditions at MVFR levels...eventually clearing out
behind the front during the late evening through overnight hours.
Behind the front...expect mostly clear skies and gusty
northwesterly winds across the local area tomorrow.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Rossi
LONG TERM...Rossi
AVIATION...Rossi

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Hastings NE
311 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
212015-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
311 PM CDT Thu Sep 20 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead
of a cold front this afternoon and track across much of the
forecast area during the late afternoon through evening hours.
Expect a few of these storms to be on the strong to marginally
severe side...especially along and southeast of a line extending
from Alma to Silver Creek Nebraska. Hail to the size of quarters
and wind gusts to 60 mph will be possible with the strongest
storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

A small chance for thunderstorms returns to much of the forecast
area Monday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening...
especially along and southeast of a line extending from Alma to
Silver Creek Nebraska.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Rossi

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