Severe Thunderstorm Warning 177, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1203 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 626 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Just issued svr tstm watch 281 until 06Z. We cont to monitor tstms
upstream and it currently appears the best chance of tstms tonight
will be N of a line from ODX-GRI-JYR. We were generous with the
counties in the watch to the S and W of that area because some
CAMs suggest additional tstm development W of the on-going
activity.

We will cont to monitor the situation thru the evng...but for now
the highest risk for svr tstms in the next 2 hrs is over Valley
and Greeley counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Focus of attention is on the wave moving through the
northern/central Plains tonight. As of now, subsidence behind
morning convection should keep us largely dry this afternoon and
early evening, but convection has already developed along an area
of low-level convergence in South Dakota and several models send
this convection to the south tonight. Not a lot of agreement among
short term models. For example, the NAMnest and NSSL WRF takes
convection as far west and south as our western CWA and north
central Kansas, whereas the HRRR barely clips us in our northeast.
There is enough uncertainty to include nearly our entire CWA with
at least a slight chance of thunderstorms, with higher chances in
our northeast.

Since we've seen a lot of sky cover, this may hinder any
development here, but with strong bulk shear for July and MLCAPE
of over 1000 J/kg, there is enough support for thunderstorms to
propagate into our area. A tornado is not completely out of the
question in our north, considering our 0-1 km helicity above 50,
especially if the mode of convection will be discreet cells rather
than linear, which is still a bit of a question, even in the short
term. Confidence in this forecast is not all that high, as
numerical models in the short term have regularly failed over the
past couple of days, and there is still a shortage of agreement
and consistency among them.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

Warm advection type showers are still on the table for late
Thursday night, and elevated instability and favorable mid-level
lapse rates could aid in giving us some marginally large hail and
severe wind gusts.

Although the subtropical ridge builds west into the Great Basin
stretching into the southern Plains, we will largely remain on
the northeastern and eastern periphery which will make us
vulnerable to a series of shortwave troughs, especially from the
latter half of the weekend into next week.

Temperatures should be rather typical for summer, with highs in
the 80s and lower 90s and lows in the 60s for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Friday)
Issued at 1200 AM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

Thunderstorms have moved to the south of the terminals, with
additional convection sliding east of KGRI. Based on radar trends,
the terminals should be storm free for the remainder of the night.
Scattered MVFR clouds should gradually dissipate, with VFR
conditions forecast the remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

UPDATE...Kelley
SHORT TERM...Heinlein
LONG TERM...Heinlein
AVIATION...Fay

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
245 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
191945-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
245 PM CDT Wed Jul 18 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Another round of severe weather is possible tonight mainly between
8 pm and 3 am. Thunderstorms which develop will be capable of
producing large hail of golf ball size and damaging winds of 70
mph. There is also a risk for tornadoes primarily north of
Interstate 80.

Heavy downpours may accompany the thunderstorms and this could
produce localized flooding in areas which received heavy rainfall
on Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible across portions of the outlook area
Thursday night after midnight, and again intermittently from
Saturday night through Tuesday. Some storms late Thursday night
could be strong to severe with large hail and damaging wind
possible, especially over north central Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed between 4 PM and midnight.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Heinlein

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1148 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0802 PM     HAIL             4 W ARCADIA             41.44N 99.21W
07/18/2018  E0.88 INCH       VALLEY             NE   PUBLIC

0848 PM     HAIL             LITCHFIELD              41.16N 99.15W
07/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0850 PM     HAIL             HAZARD                  41.09N 99.08W
07/18/2018  E2.50 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   STORM CHASER

0850 PM     HAIL             2 E LITCHFIELD          41.16N 99.12W
07/18/2018  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   PUBLIC

0858 PM     HAIL             1 NNW HAZARD            41.11N 99.09W
07/18/2018  E1.50 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0901 PM     HAIL             1 W HAZARD              41.09N 99.10W
07/18/2018  E1.75 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0926 PM     HAIL             PLEASANTON              40.97N 99.08W
07/18/2018  E1.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE FROM 921-926 PM.

0934 PM     HAIL             ARCADIA                 41.42N 99.13W
07/18/2018  E0.88 INCH       VALLEY             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0943 PM     HAIL             6 WSW GIBBON            40.71N 98.95W
07/18/2018  E1.00 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   STORM CHASER

1050 PM     HAIL             6 WSW GIBBON            40.72N 98.95W
07/18/2018  E1.75 INCH       BUFFALO            NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1156 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

NEZ040-190530-
Greeley NE-
1156 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GREELEY COUNTY UNTIL
1230 AM CDT...

At 1155 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles north of Spalding, or 32 miles northeast of Ord, moving
southeast at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spalding...and rural eastern Greeley County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4145 9829 4144 9831 4174 9851 4174 9829
TIME...MOT...LOC 0455Z 332DEG 29KT 4181 9836

Pfannkuch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1207 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             HAZARD                  41.09N 99.08W
07/18/2018  E2.75 INCH       SHERMAN            NE   PUBLIC

            DELAYED REPORT. FACEBOOK PHOTO AND OTHER
            REPORTS VERIFY HAIL TO AROUND BASEBALL SIZE
            IN THE HAZARD AREA.

&&

PFANNKUCH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

NEZ041-048-049-190600-
Merrick NE-Nance NE-Polk NE-
1220 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NANCE...NORTHEASTERN MERRICK AND
NORTHERN POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1219 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lindsay to near Belgrade. Movement was
southeast at 45 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fullerton, Genoa, Clarks, Silver Creek and Belgrade.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
central and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4114 9793 4148 9827 4148 9810 4149 9810
      4150 9804 4151 9804 4151 9789 4153 9788
      4153 9771 4140 9770 4139 9760 4133 9760
      4136 9752 4137 9745 4139 9737 4134 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0519Z 312DEG 41KT 4168 9771 4150 9812

Pfannkuch

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Hastings NE
103 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

NEZ041-048-049-063-064-190645-
Merrick NE-Hamilton NE-Nance NE-York NE-Polk NE-
103 AM CDT THU JUL 19 2018

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NANCE...NORTHERN YORK...
NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON...NORTHERN MERRICK AND POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 145
AM CDT...

At 103 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Columbus to near Osceola to 6 miles
northeast of Archer. Movement was southeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Central City, Fullerton, Stromsburg, Genoa, Osceola, Shelby, Clarks,
Silver Creek, Polk, Benedict, Gresham, Hordville, Belgrade and
Thayer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for
south central, central and east central Nebraska.

LAT...LON 4095 9793 4140 9829 4146 9829 4148 9823
      4148 9810 4151 9804 4153 9771 4140 9770
      4139 9760 4133 9760 4139 9737 4096 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 298DEG 34KT 4142 9731 4125 9758 4125 9808

Pfannkuch