Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
628 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

We are still anticipating scattered to widespread rain and
thunderstorms to impact the area through this evening and
overnight, forced by an approaching upper low. As of early
afternoon, we've started to see an increase in convection across
Colorado and western Nebraska, and this should generally propagate
eastward into the forecast area. Locally, skies have remained
pretty overcast along and west of Highway 281. Our current
thinking is that strong to severe storms may develop west of the
area, and briefly pose a severe threat for western portions of the
forecast area before weakening as they move into the more stable
airmass overhead.

At the same time, southeastern portions of the forecast area have
remained mostly cloud free, and we will start to see a few
isolated thunderstorms in this area as well. The severe threat
with these storms is relatively low...at least for now...as deep-
layer shear values are only 10-15kts currently. Expect shear and
storm organization/strength to increase this evening as the trough
enhances the upper level flow.

Expect fairly widespread showers and storms to continue tonight
into Monday morning as the upper low moves overhead. By Monday
afternoon, most of the area will be on the west side of the
surface low, but areas north and east of the tri-cities may still
see enough of a southeasterly wind component for a few strong to
severe storms in the afternoon and early evening. Of course, like
today, this is dependent on remnant cloud cover clearing
sufficiently.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

A few wraparound showers may continue into Monday night or even
Tuesday morning before the cutoff low moves out of the area and
the pattern shifts back to ridging overhead.

We will begin the transition back to a hot and dry pattern on
Tuesday as high temperatures return to the upper 80s and low 90s.
We should see the hottest temperatures Wednesday through Friday as
the 500mb ridge is at its peak and we see increasing southerly
surface flow.

High temperatures are expected to reach the mid 90s to low 100s each
day, with heat index values form the upper 90s to mid 100s. At this
time, it appears that Wednesday will be the hottest day...especially
considering that winds will remain relatively light.

The next trough is forecast to bring a slight cooldown to the area,
along with small chances for thunderstorms Friday night into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Monday)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Tricky situation tonight with thunderstorms expected to persist
throughout a majority of the TAF valid time. Thunderstorms are
present west/northwest of the KEAR/KGRI terminals and are expected
to move across the terminals this evening. The upper low driving
this activity is expected to move across the area and wrap up
across central Nebraska. This will cause ceilings to drop and
showers and thunder to persist through much of the forecast. MVFR
ceilings are expected overnight and to persist during the day
tomorrow.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Mangels
LONG TERM...Mangels
AVIATION...Billings Wright

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
229 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
251200-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
229 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely across the area this evening into
tonight. Some storms could be severe with up to quarter size hail
and wind gusts to 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few isolated thunderstorms could occur Monday afternoon and
evening. One or two of these storms might produce hail to the size
of quarters and wind gusts near 50 mph northeast of a line from
Ord to York.

Hot weather returns to the area by the middle of the week, and
Heat Index values are expected to range from 100 to 105 degrees
Wednesday through Friday.

Small chances for thunderstorms return Friday night into Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed for portions of the area this
evening.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

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