Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Hastings, NE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1220 AM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

The main forecast concern is the chances for thunderstorms this
evening and overnight. An upper level disturbance will move across
the Northern Plains and help to induce thunderstorms this evening.
Thunderstorms have already fired in the Black Hills and western
Wyoming as of this issuance. The high-resolution guidance has
continued to indicate the chance for a MCS to develop from this
activity in the High Plains and track southeast across Nebraska.
The question now though is, how exactly will this convection
evolve? The NAM and GFS seem to be struggling some what, but
ultimately develop a MCS and track it east/southeast during the
overnight aided by low level moisture transport. These guidance
keep the bulk of the QPF north of the forecast area, over northern
Nebraska. The higher resolution NAMNest shows a squall line
developing and tracking south across the heart of Nebraska,
including much of the forecast area. The HRRR indicates the
potential for convection developing off the High Plains of the
Nebraska Panhandle moving east and merging with the squall line
from SD and moving across Nebraska. There are a lot of solutions
and as mentioned, which will occur? While the details are a bit
hairy, the main take away is that there is a decent chance for
thunderstorms to impact central and parts of south central
Nebraska. The best chance will be along and north of I-80, but
cannot rule out the possibility for the remainder of Nebraska.
North central Kansas looks like it will stay mostly dry. A
marginal and slight risk encompass the forecast area. Think the
best chance will be for severe wind vs. hail during the overnight
hours. Timing: 10pm-6am.

Saturday and Sunday: The main concern for the weekend is the heat.
With the upper ridge square overhead, temperatures will soar.
Highs will be in the 90s and even breaching the triple digits in
north central Kansas. Sunday will be hotter than Saturday across
the area. Heat indices will approach 100. There is a small chance
for thunderstorms during the day Saturday as it gets warm enough,
but upper level support is minimal. The forecast is dry for the
whole weekend, but a Marginal Risk is overhead for Saturday.
Cannot rule out a convectively induce brief thunderstorm, but for
most the chances are better it will remain dry.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

An upper disturbance will be rotating around the upper trough
across the northern Rockies/Plains and kick out a cold front
across the area for early Monday. With this trough the upper
pattern will become more zonal. Temperatures will begin to
moderate back to climatic norms in the low 80s. This frontal
passage Monday is expected to be mostly dry. There are scattered
precipitation chances through the work-week, but the best chance
looks to be Tuesday night through Wednesday as a wave moves across
the Northern Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Sat Jun 9 2018

Main concern for this TAF period will come in the first 3-6 hours,
as a MCS makes its way southeast through central NE. Still has a
ways to go to affect the terminal areas, but timing trends look to
bring it in around 07Z. Once this activity passes later tonight,
have the rest of the period dry, with VFR conditions. Winds may be
variable/gusty with any thunderstorms, but otherwise generally
southeasterly winds are expected.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Billings Wright
LONG TERM...Billings Wright
AVIATION...ADP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Hastings NE
359 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
092100-
Phillips-Smith-Jewell-Rooks-Osborne-Mitchell-Valley-Greeley-Nance-
Sherman-Howard-Merrick-Polk-Dawson-Buffalo-Hall-Hamilton-York-
Gosper-Phelps-Kearney-Adams-Clay-Fillmore-Furnas-Harlan-Franklin-
Webster-Nuckolls-Thayer-
359 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Nebraska and
portions of north central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight,
mainly across central and south central Nebraska. The main hazards will
be damaging wind gusts near 70 MPH and hail up the size of half
dollars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

This weekend will be hot by early-June standards. Especially on
Sunday afternoon, heat index values could reach 100 degrees in
various parts of the outlook area.

Between Monday afternoon and Thursday, intermittent thunderstorm
chances return to various portions of the outlook area.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this evening through
tonight, mainly across south central Nebraska.

&&

More information may be obtained at the following web page:
   https://www.weather.gov/hastings

Billings Wright

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